Who will make it in the battle for the AFL final eight? We look at the run home

MATT Windley runs his eye over the contenders for the AFL’s final eight and predicts who will make it, and where the top contenders will finish.

CROWSvRICHMOND

FIVE ALIVE

But only one can survive.

Two weeks to go. It’s crunch time now and thanks to Richmond’s big win on Saturday night we’re headed for a thrilling finale in the race for the eight. MATT WINDLEY casts his eye over your club’s run to the finals.

AS THEY STAND ...

64pts 142.7%

R22: Western Bulldogs (Etihad) W

R23: Richmond (ANZ) W

 

Everyone expected the win over St Kilda, but the percentage boost only served to strengthen Sydney’s minor premiership claims. Should go in to Round 23 at least with the all-important top two berth locked up.

64pts 112.8%

R22: Hawthorn (MCG) L

R23: Brisbane Lions (Simonds) W

Geelong’s seven-match winning streak hasn’t quite generated the same publicity as Richmond’s. Now for the big one — Hawthorn at the MCG. But how much do both sides give away considering there is every chance they’ll have to do it all again in a qualifying final in two weeks?

60pts 138.5%

R22: Geelong (MCG) W

R23: Collingwood (MCG) W

Loss to Fremantle no big deal in context of the season — unless there was some weird obsession with winning the minor premiership. It probably also doesn’t matter if Hawthorn finishes second or third because either way it’s likely to result in a qualifying final against Geelong at the MCG.

56pts 128.8%

R22: Brisbane Lions (Gabba) W

R23: Port Adelaide (Patersons) W

Make no mistake, Fremantle can still win this thing. First and foremost it must secure a top four spot — and it will do so if it defeats Port Adelaide in Round 23. But should Hawthorn also lose to Geelong next week then there’s an outside chance the Dockers could snatch third.

52pts 126.5%

R22: Carlton (Adelaide Oval) W

R23: Fremantle (Patersons) L

Port Adelaide has probably been written off in terms of its top four aspirations, but a win over Carlton on Friday will ensure that it goes in to the Round 23 clash with Fremantle in Perth with every chance of snatching fourth and the double chance.

48pts 116.7%

R22: Adelaide (Blundstone) W

R23: Melbourne (Etihad) W

As the teams from 7-12 scrap for the last two spots in the eight, North Melbourne waits to find its elimination final opponent. The Roos will have to be on red alert this week for an Adelaide side that needs to win to keep its season alive.

44pts 105.8%

R22: Gold Coast (Etihad) W

R23: Carlton (MCG) W

Can’t quite say Essendon is a lock for finals just yet, but Saturday’s courageous comeback victory and subsequent results elsewhere have made a September berth highly likely. A win over Gold Coast on Saturday will seal the deal.

40pts 111.2%

R22: North Melbourne (Blundstone) L

R23: St Kilda (Adelaide Oval) W

Adelaide is now hanging on for dear life. It all comes down to Saturday’s clash with North Melbourne at Blundstone Arena. Win and the Crows will make finals with a last round victory over St Kilda. Lose and it would take a miracle.

40pts 104.5%

R22: St Kilda (MCG) W

R23: Sydney (ANZ) L

It. Is. ALIVE! Saturday night’s gutsy win means that Richmond could be playing for a finals spot in Round 23 against Sydney at ANZ Stadium. But firstly the Tigers will be chasing vital percentage against a banged-up St Kilda side on Sunday evening.

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40pts 96.8%

R22: GWS (Spotless) W

R23: Hawthorn (MCG) L

Grand finals aside, was Saturday night’s loss up there with the most disastrous in the club’s history? Can’t tip Collingwood with any certainty against GWS this week let alone against Hawthorn in Round 23 so finals chances are shot.

40pts 96.8%

R22: Essendon (Etihad) L

R23: West Coast (Metricon) L

Gold Coast keeps losing, yet so do the teams around it, so somehow it’s still right in the hunt for a finals spot. A loss to Essendon on Saturday will finally put the young Suns out of their misery, but an upset win could set up a virtual finals playoff with West Coast in Round 23.

36pts 111.1%

R22: Melbourne (Patersons) W

R23: Gold Coast (Metricon) W

West Coast looked out of the race at 7.30pm on Saturday night, but three hours later it was right back in the mix. Unlikely? Not so much. Put it this way: The Eagles will surely beat Melbourne and Gold Coast, right? Then all that needs to happen is for Adelaide to lose to North Melbourne (R22), Richmond to Sydney (R23) and Collingwood to Hawthorn (R23).

WHICH ALL ADDS UP TO ...

 

WHICH WOULD MEAN...

Finals, Week 1

First qualifying final: Sydney v Fremantle, ANZ Stadium/SCG

Second qualifying final: Hawthorn v Geelong, MCG

First elimination final: Port Adelaide v West Coast, Adelaide Oval

Second elimination final: North Melbourne v Essendon, MCG

AND THE REST PLAYING FOR PRIDE ...

28pts 94%

R22: Port Adelaide (Adelaide Oval) L

R23: Essendon (MCG) L

Carlton showed on Friday night against Geelong that it can still be a big player in the way that the top eight will look come September. Could ruin Port Adelaide and Essendon’s top four and top eight hopes respectively.

28pts 83.2%

R22: Sydney (Etihad) L

R23: GWS (Etihad) W

Will welcome two Sydney clubs to Etihad Stadium in the last two rounds of the season. Will be looking forward to the test against the Swans, but also the real opportunity to finish the season with a win against the Giants.

28pts 71.4%

R22: Fremantle (Gabba) L

R23: Geelong (Simonds) L

Biggest turnaround in a week ever? Didn’t pretty much the same thing happen a few years ago with the Brisbane Lions smashing up on a Collingwood team at the MCG late in the season on a Saturday night? Wins in the last two rounds aren’t likely, but Lions fans probably don’t want to jump Carlton or the Western Bulldogs on the ladder any way for the sake of the draft.

20pts 74.8%

R22: Collingwood (Spotless) L

R23: Western Bulldogs (Etihad) L

GWS could rub some serious salt in to Collingwood’s gaping wounds with a win in its last home game of the season on Saturday.

16pts 69.5%

R22: West Coast (Patersons) L

R23: North Melbourne (Etihad) L

Will be cannon fodder for a West Coast team chasing percentage this week.

16pts 61.3%

R22: Richmond (MCG) L

R23: Adelaide (Adelaide Oval) L

See Melbourne’s explanation but just replace West Coast for Richmond. Hopefully St Kilda can put up a fight on Sunday for Lenny’s sake.

THE BOTTOM SIX:

13. Western Bulldogs 8-14

14. Carlton 7-15

15. Brisbane Lions 7-15

16. GWS 5-17

17. Melbourne 4-18

18. St Kilda 4-18

Originally published as Who will make it in the battle for the AFL final eight? We look at the run home