The Herald Sun football team look at each AFL finalist’s main concern heading into September
It looms as one of the most open races for an AFL premiership in years, but every team has its concerns. The Herald Sun experts take a look at each of the finalists to see where they’re most vulnerable.
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It looms as one of the most open races for an AFL premiership in years.
But what will be the keys to determining whether a club succeeds — or falters.
Our team of Herald Sun experts takes a look at each of the finalists to see where they’re vulnerable.
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GEELONG
Of all the so-called hoodoos and myths in football, and they grow like noxious weeds, Geelong suffering from post-bye blues is hardest to defend as an untruth.
The Cats have lost 11 from 12 coming off a bye since the 2011 finals series.
Even coach Chris Scott admitted it was real when the Cats lost to Port Adelaide after this year’s bye.
“We haven’t played well off the mid-season bye. That’s real,” he said.
“We have got to look at all the ways in which we can improve that.”
A bigger problem for Scott and his men have been bad losses in the first week of the 2017 and 2018 finals series — to Richmond and Melbourne — after the end-of-year bye.
They have tried different techniques to correct it without success given they were also blown away early by Adelaide in a 2016 preliminary final after a week’s rest. And that adds up to an issue that become a serious mental hurdle for Scott and his Cats to overcome.
— Jon Anderson
BRISBANE
We have fallen in love with the Brisbane Lions’ sudden surge up the ladder this season, exploding from only five wins last year to second spot in 2019.
But making finals is one thing, winning them is another. A lack of experience is their kryptonite.
So, at the moment, there are more questions than answers.
Can they do it on the big stage?
Can this talented young group handle the September heat?
At least they had a pre-finals hitout against Richmond to prepare for what’s to come this weekend.
Although the Tigers belted them in the first quarter — outscoring the Lions six goals to two.
Learning from that experience will help. And it’s a good thing they have got one of the greatest Grand Final performers we’ve ever seen, Luke Hodge, ready to lead them into battle for one last campaign.
— Jay Clark
COLLINGWOOD
Can Darcy Moore’s troublesome hamstrings stand up in September? The key defender’s finals series looked over for a second straight year in the last round when he came from the field with more awareness in his hamstring.
A clear set of scans puts him back in the game. But as he works to retain selection for the qualifying final against Geelong on Friday night we don’t know if there’s a psychological fallout of his frustrating run with injuries.
Coach Nathan Buckley says it isn’t a mental issue, and all but assured fans Moore would play this week. Keeping him fit could be the difference between venturing deep into the finals or coming up short.
If Moore had played in last year’s Grand Final, the Magpies might well be defending champs. He is one of Collingwood’s most crucial players as an intercept defender who can lock down and run off. He makes good decisions and keeps the Magpies’ backline intact. If Moore can stand up to the next gruelling month, he and the Pies might get the ultimate reward.
— Glenn McFarlane
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RICHMOND
At least Richmond can breathe a sigh of relief that Mason Cox is out of the finals series after last year’s stunning preliminary final performance.
But with no Alex Rance the Tigers won’t forget Aaron Naughton’s five-goal, nine-contested mark performance in Round 7 this year.
So they will be sure to put plenty of time into a beanpole such as Lion Oscar McInerney on Saturday, aware he can catch fire and change the course of a game in minutes.
For all its defensive brilliance Richmond is not miserly against key forwards — 10 sides have better records at restricting goals from the opposition’s offensive guns this year. So with Dylan Grimes sure to have his hands full with Charlie Cameron, Nathan Broad and Nick Vlastuin will have to ensure they come over the top of David Astbury’s man to help stop the high-leaping Lions.
— Jon Ralph
WEST COAST
Can West Coast win the flag without Josh Kennedy turning back the clock?
You don’t need any think music for this one. The answer is clearly no.
Kennedy, who turned 32, looks like a player whose body is finally starting to say enough is enough.
The statistics would suggest that the two-time Coleman medalist is at the crossroads with just five goals in his last four games.
Kennedy has kicked 44 goals in 20 games this season. In last year’s premiership year he recovered from injury problems to kick 43 goals from 14 games.
In many ways the stellar season of his partner in crime Jack Darling has helped divert the focus from Kennedy’s struggles.
The one-two forward punch has long been the Eagles’ trump card and if they’re to win back-to-back flags from fifth place, it needs to be resurrected.
— Scott Gullan
GWS GIANTS
The fog around the Giants has lifted. A nice morale-boosting flogging of a hapless Gold Coast snapped a two-match losing streak and a host of key players, including Jacob Hopper and Toby Greene, are back. But for all the injury talk, GWS’s kryptonite might be mental more than anything.
Much was made of the surrender in the snow against Hawthorn and they have been viewed as a nearly-there side come September.
If Leon Cameron’s side isn’t “switched on” for whatever reason, it doesn’t appear capable of changing the course of a game or a situation.
In all four finals losses of the Giants short history, they have been behind at quarter-time and unable to recover. Start slowly against the red-hot Western Bulldogs and it might be deja vu.
What they do about Marcus Bontempelli might be keeping Cameron up at night too, given Matt De Boer’s tagging job on the Dogs star in Round 22 had zero impact.
— Sam Edmund
WESTERN BULLDOGS
There is little doubt the Bulldogs’ young brigade has helped carry them to September. But now their burning question is whether they might be a bit too young in the key position posts in the heat of the finals.
Aaron Naughton and Josh Schache, the key pillars up forward, are just 19 and 22 respectively. That’s a very young forward duo, although they’re well supported by the likes of Bailey Dale, Sam Lloyd and Tory Dickson.
Whether Naughton and Schache can handle the pressures of finals football is the question many Bulldogs fans will be asking themselves heading into their elimination final against GWS.
The other big question is whether they tinker with what has been a winning formula over the back half of the year. They romped into the finals with a barnstorming 8-3 run in the second half of the season, so now coach Luke Beveridge will need to consider whether or not he brings in the likes of Tom Liberatore (knee) and Caleb Daniel (hamstring) when they’re available for selection.
— Nick Smart
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ESSENDON
It’s pretty simple with the Bombers: Bring effort. At least that will give them a chance of winning.
If they don’t bring effort and energy and square contested ball and clearances, they will be blown away.
They have to play the forward-half game, bring pressure and tackling in the 50m, and not rely solely on their ability to move the ball from one end of the ground to the other, which is their strength.
And it’s their strength because the game tends to live in their defensive half. They have a time-in-forward half differential of -5mins per game, which is ranked 16th.
Last time these treams met, Josh Kennedy munched on Michael Hurley on the lead.
If the Essendon midfield doesn’t apply pressure on their midfield opposition, Kennedy, Darling and Co could savage the Bombers in the air.
It will take effort and some, but you can forget the ‘’some’’ if the collective effort is not there.
— Mark Robinson
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Originally published as The Herald Sun football team look at each AFL finalist’s main concern heading into September