Fox Footy expert David King says finals aspirants at the mercy of injuries to key players
THERE are 78 days until the Grand Final and only 57 days until the start of the finals series.
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THERE are 78 days until the Grand Final and only 57 days until the start of the finals series.
For the players, there are only seven rounds — 14 hours of genuine match play — left to find form, cement positions or force their way into a finals side.
The team has other challenges on the horizon — the battle for home ground advantage is on a knife-edge, with Sydney and Fremantle best-placed, but Hawthorn, Port Adelaide and Geelong ready to pounce on any slip-up.
The bottom line is that those involved at clubland have now become time-poor.
Before we know it the finals will be upon us. Player fitness and wellness is critical for success in the next two months and any setback will prove fatal when it comes to finals chances or, more importantly, premiership success.
The gap between the elite teams is minuscule. Health will decide their looming battles more than anything else.
Throughout the home-and-away season injuries impact all teams without favour, but from this point on they become far more critical. How many is now as important as who.
Take Gold Coast, who have been hit with a sledgehammer as the loss of Gary Ablett threatens to derail its attempt to secure a maiden finals appearance.
The days for rehabilitation and match conditioning are shrinking. How many games do players need prior to a finals campaign? Are they worth the risk? How many underdone players is too many for a cut-throat final?
We’ve heard coaches say they’d never take injured players into a final, but the reality is the genuine stars can demand selection, or at least a second thought.
Depth players or fringe types don’t usually decide the fortunes of a September campaign, but there does come a breaking point.
Ideally, the notion that the next selected player is ranked 23rd on the list hardly rocks the boat, but if the incoming player is ranked 27th or 28th because of multiple injuries, then teams become exposed.
Injuries to the Ben Jacobs, Liam Anthony and Ben Ross types are, in reality, only a “flesh wound”, but get enough flesh wounds and the bleeding becomes significant.
Considering the volume of Collingwood’s injuries, every match and every training session exposes them to breaking point. From here they’ll be looking at players ranked a considerable distance from their top 22.
The next bracket of injuries are the role players. They aren’t necessarily household names, but they’re significant to the collective. We’re talking the Tyson Goldsacks of the footy world.
They’re known as the “drone injuries” — a step up from the “flesh wound” because their role carries enormous value to the coaching staff.
Role players need little instruction and their magnet goes on the whiteboard with surety. Every finals teams has three or four drones.
Players who provide experience and leadership are hard to replace and if injuries hit this department of your side it can be crippling.
In boxing terms it’s like the continual body punches that don’t quite knock you out, but they wound you into submission. We’re talking “body blow” injuries.
This variety doesn’t have to effect too many players to hurt your finals chances. Think Ben Stratton, Mathew Stokes and Luke Ball types who’ve delivered on the big stage previously.
These are the guys you rely on under pressure and are the heart and soul of your unit.
The stars and the structural players — those who fill the ruck or key position posts — are irreplaceable.
Cop injuries to the likes of Tom Hawkins, Matthew Lobbe, Ted Richards, Patrick Dangerfield and company and your campaign is over.
The gap between the top four or five teams is too narrow to win without your best, especially away from home.
These injuries are the “flat liners” because there will be no pulse if the team needs restructuring at this stage.
The main reason for this is the domino theory, with the flow-on effect meaning lesser talent will be asked to perform at a higher level in the biggest games of the year. If they couldn’t do that when the star was playing why would they when he’s not?
Sydney have had a charmed run with injuries and have used the AFL’s fewest players — 29.
Unlike last season they now have the luxury of resting stars before finals, sitting one game clear atop the ladder with Dan Hannebery, Kurt Tippett and Rhyce Shaw due back soon.
Fremantle will be almost full strength within a fortnight as Michael Walters remains the only notable player sidelined. Will he be able to make an impact after being out since Round 3?
Port Adelaide have all back-up ruckmen on the sidelines, meaning Lobbe is their most valuable player. Jackson Trengove’s ankle has caused minor shockwaves and any further structural injuries would prove fatal.
Hawthorn is missing a combination of all categories mentioned above.
Stars like Cyril Rioli are racing against the clock, Josh Gibson and Brad Sewell have been body blows, while Alastair Clarkson has also had to deal with flesh wounds to Billy Hartung, Jed Anderson and the forgotten Brendan Whitecross.
If the Hawks suffer any more it will be goodnight nurse.
Geelong, with the exception of Nathan Vardy and Daniel Menzel, is the healthiest its been all year.
Stokes will push for selection over the next two or three weeks and only a “flatliner” injury would significantly alter their top-four chances.
More than ever, the health of those playing and the volume of injuries that hit the contenders will dictate who wins this season’s premiership. Luck and good management are assets understated.
Flatliners — Stars and structurally vital players
(Port) Matt Lobbe (Geel) Tom Hawkins (Adel) Patrick Dangerfield
Body Blows — Core players
(Geel) Mathew Stokes, (Haw) Ben Stratton, (Coll) Luke Ball
Drone injuries — Role players
(Coll) Tyson Goldsack
Flesh Wounds — Depth players
(Haw) Ben Ross (Haw) Billy Hartung (North) Liam Anthony
Originally published as Fox Footy expert David King says finals aspirants at the mercy of injuries to key players
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