Finals Formguide: The big questions, casualty wards, suspension tightropes and early odds and predictions
THE favourites in the first week of finals are clear-cut, but nothing is certain in September. Our preview of the first four big games.
AFL News
Don't miss out on the headlines from AFL News. Followed categories will be added to My News.
HAWTHORN V GEELONG
Second Qualifying Final, MCG, Friday 7.50pm (AEST)
This Season: Round 5, Geelong defeated Hawthorn by 19 points at MCG. Round 22, Hawthorn defeated Geelong by 23 points at MCG.
Early Call: Hawks by four points
HAWTHORN
The big question: Will Ben McEvoy be left without a chair when the music stops?
THE Hawks might have lured McEvoy from St Kilda amid much fanfare over summer, but that won’t stop them making the cold, hard decision to leave him out this week.
David Hale’s goalkicking ability has cemented his spot while Jonathon Ceglar’s breakout year has left McEvoy walking on egg shells.
The former Saint did all the right things in the VFL at the weekend and even kicked four goals, but the recently successful pairing of Hale and Ceglar means he’s likely to be left on the outer.
The trio have all played VFL and AFL this year, but Hale and Ceglar have combined for seven goals in the past fortnight and were excellent against the Cats as recently as Round 22. Ceglar had 23 hitouts, 10 possessions, four marks and a goal in that game.
CASUALTY WARD
Brian Lake (corked thigh) test
Luke Hodge (knee) test
Ben Stratton (calf) test
Bradley Hill (quad) test
Matt Suckling (knee) test
Cyril Rioli (hamstring) 1-2 weeks
Jed Anderson (shoulder) season
Brendan Whitecross (knee) season
Tim O’Brien (hamstring) season
SUSPENSION TIGHTROPE (carry-over points)
Josh Gibson 70.31
Brian Lake 10
Jarryd Roughead 8.05
ODDS
This week: $1.50
Premiership: $2.75
GEELONG
The big question: Has Shane Kersten’s hamstring injury solved the Cats’ key forward problem?
IT sounds harsh, but the silver lining in Kersten’s injury has been the re-emergence of Josh Walker and Mitch Brown.
The young duo showed enough against the Lions to suggest the Cats’ premiership hopes may not rest solely on the shoulders of Tom Hawkins inside 50m.
The Tomahawk bagged seven goals, but where Kersten had been struggling, Walker (10 possessions, four marks, 1.3) and Brown (15 possessions, five marks, 1.1) had an influence — the former mainly in the ruck and the latter forward.
The Cats have struggled to find a second viable marking target for much of the season. They have preferred Kersten, but his injury may have opened their eyes?
CASUALTY WARD
Steve Johnson (foot) test
Taylor Hunt (groin) test
Shane Kersten (hamstring) 1-2 weeks
Dawson Simpson (back) season
Daniel Menzel (knee) season
George Burbury (hamstring) season
Nathan Vardy (knee) season
Josh Cowan (Achilles) season
SUSPENSION TIGHTROPE (carry-over points)
Billy Smedts 93.75
Steve Johnson 75.31
Taylor Hunt 68.75
Mathew Stokes 68.75
Corey Enright 25
ODDS
This week: $2.60
Premiership: $7.50
— Analysis by Sam Edmund
SYDNEY SWANS V FREMANTLE
First Qualifying Final, ANZ Stadium, Saturday 2.45pm (AEST)
This Season: Round 5, Sydney defeated Fremantle by 17 points at SCG.
Early Call: Swans by 17 points
SYDNEY
The big question: Will the Swans be able to match Freo in the big-man department?
RUCK stocks are running threadbare in Bloodsland with Saturday’s first-gamer Sam Naismith likely to join Tom Derickx on the sidelines.
Oh how the Swans would love to have been able to keep Shane Mumford now with Mike Pyke slowly regaining form and, coming back from an illness, the go-to man against man mountain Aaron Sandilands.
The other quandary for Sydney is whether or not all the likely inclusions will fit back in seamlessly.
You’d expect Buddy won’t be an issue, but the Swans wouldn’t want cobwebs on Kennedy, McGlynn and Bird in the same midfield.
CASUALTY WARD
Lance Franklin (knee) available
Josh Kennedy (hamstring) test
Ben McGlynn (calf) test
Craig Bird (knee) test
Mike Pyke (ill) available
Sam Naismith (knee) test
Brandon Jack (ankle) 1 week
SUSPENSION TIGHTROPE (carry-over points)
Ted Richards 93.75 *
Ryan O’Keefe 93.75
Jarrad McVeigh 45
Tom Derickx 93.75
Jeremy Laidler 70.31
* Expires after second week of finals
ODDS
This week: $1.50
Premiership: $2.75
FREMANTLE
The big question: Can the Dockers repeat their qualifying final heroics of 2013?
FREO up-ended footy logic last year by stunning Geelong on its home patch to kick off the finals.
There’s little doubt the boys in purple have been gathering momentum since their shock loss to St Kilda in Round 18, but whether it’s got to that manic level of 2013 is very much debatable.
The key for Freo in important wins over flag aspirants Port Adelaide and Hawthorn in recent weeks has been its new ability to score heavily when required.
But more pressing on Saturday will be whether the it can curb Buddy and Tippett at the other end with Alex Silvagni a likely inclusion.
CASUALTY WARD
Colin Sylvia (hamstring) 1 week
Tom Sheridan (hip) test
Luke McPharlin (hamstring) 1-2 weeks
Michael Johnson (back) test
SUSPENSION TIGHTROPE (carry-over points)
Nick Suban 50
Michael Walters 3.75
Michael Johnson 70.31
David Mundy 70.31
Paul Duffield 70.31
Zac Clarke 93.75
Zac Dawson 97.50
Hayden Ballantyne 59.38
Nathan Fyfe 76.25
Chris Mayne 93.75 *
* Expires after first week of finals
ODDS
This week: $2.60
Premiership: $5.50
— Analysis by Mark Hayes
NORTH MELBOURNE v ESSENDON
Second Elimination Final, MCG, Saturday 7.15pm (AEST)
This Season: Round 1, Essendon defeated North Melbourne by 39 at Etihad Stadium.
Early Call: Kangaroos by 17 points
NORTH MELBOURNE
The big question: Is Ben Brown the AFL’s most dangerous finals wildcard?
NORTH Melbourne’s midfield grows stronger by the day and its backline is shored up by All-Australian Scott Thompson.
But for so much of this season we questioned the misfiring forward line.
Enter raw-boned Tasmanian Ben Brown, who has kicked 11 goals in his past six games with remarkable goal sense, precision kicking and a perfect ability to judge his leads to the Roos midfield.
It is no coincidence Drew Petrie is getting more one-on-ones and a forward line which was once a weakness has now turned into a strength.
CASUALTY WARD
Brent Harvey (suspended) 1 week
Luke McDonald (back) available
Levi Greenwood (calf) available
Lindsay Thomas (knee) available
Lachie Hansen (hip) test
Leigh Adams (concussion) test
Nathan Grima (calf) test
SUSPENSION TIGHTROPE (carry-over points)
Daniel Wells 96.85
Leigh Adams 70.31
Scott Thompson 68.75
Luke McDonald 60
Brent Harvey 41
ODDS
This week: $1.70
Premiership: $34
ESSENDON
The big question: Does Essendon have the firepower to blow North away?
IN winning 12 games this year Essendon has shown it can kick a winning score, tallying 100 points six times.
But finals are when big monster forwards are at a premium and Essendon’s only player in the top 30 goalscorers — Jake Carlisle (27 goals) — is hamstrung.
It means Essendon’s midfield must hold sway to allow David Zaharakis (14 goals), David Zaharakis (17 goals) and Paul Chapman (20 goals) to get on the scoreboard.
Can they do it for four quarters against a quality opposition?
This year’s topsy-turvy form would say that seems unlikely.
CASUALTY WARD
Mark Baguley (cut head) 1 week
Dustin Fletcher (finger) season
Tayte Pears (Achilles) season
Nick Kommer (knee) season
Alex Browne (knee) season
SUSPENSION TIGHTROPE (carry-over points)
Jason Winderlich 70.31
Paul Chapman 45.31
David Myers 45
Jason Winderlich 46.48
Brendon Goddard 68.75
MRP HEADACHE
Cale Hooker’s jumper punch on Tom Bell
ODDS
This week: $2.15
Premiership: $51
— Analysis by Jon Ralph
PORT ADELAIDE v RICHMOND
First Elimination Final, Adelaide Oval, Sunday 3.20pm (AEST)
This Season: Round 17, Richmond defeated Port Adelaide by 20 at Etihad Stadium
Early Call: Port Adelaide by 12 points
PORT ADELAIDE
The big question: Can Chad Wingard be Port Adelaide’s finals X-Factor?
A BREAKOUT season for Wingard last year helped carry Port Adelaide to an unlikely finals appearance, earning him all-Australian selection in just his second season.
After some lean patches at times this year, Wingard has now not been without a goal since Round 16.
Bags of three and two goals in the past two rounds indicate he is tapping into some potentially dangerous form at the right time of the year.
CASUALTY WARD
Aaron Young (foot) TBC
Darcy Byrne-Jones (concussion) available
Campbell Heath (knee) available
Sam Colquhoun (knee) season
Jarrad Redden (knee) season
Brent Renouf (knee) season
SUSPENSION TIGHTROPE (carry-over points)
Hamish Hartlett 45.31
Jay Schulz 80
Kane Cornes 93.75
ODDS
This week: $3
Premiership: $26
RICHMOND
The big question: Does Richmond have enough petrol left in the tank?
SEEMINGLY out on the canvas at 3-10 mid-season, the Tigers have had to play virtually nine cut-throat finals just to secure a spot in September.
And now the tempo lifts a notch.
It remains to be seen how much the past nine weeks have zapped out of the Tigers as they prepare to try and tackle the run of Port Adelaide.
But Tigers captain Trent Cotchin is confident they can lift another gear.
CASUALTY WARD
Matt Thomas (knee) season
Ben Darrou (hip) season
Brett O’Hanlon (hip) season
SUSPENSION TIGHTROPE (carry-over points)
Jack Riewoldt 60
Brett Deledio 93.75
Ty Vickery 43.75
Steven Morris 87.50
Ty Vickery 95
Reece Conca 43.75
ODDS
This week: $1.40
Premiership: $26
— Analysis by Rebecca Williams
Originally published as Finals Formguide: The big questions, casualty wards, suspension tightropes and early odds and predictions
‘Heavy workload’: Major move at Collingwood
The biggest club in the AFL needs a new president as one of the key men in their 2023 premiership made a move to their long-time rivals.
Blues win race for footy’s premiership mastermind
One of footy’s most respected administrators is set to join Carlton in an off-field coup, with the appointment to be confirmed on Wednesday. GLENN MCFARLANE has details.