Field Marshal: Why your club can win the 2017 premiership, and why they can’t
ONE of the closest seasons in history means the premiership is anyone’s for the taking. SAM EDMUND reveals why your club can win the flag, and why they can’t.
AFL News
Don't miss out on the headlines from AFL News. Followed categories will be added to My News.
IT HAS been one of the closest seasons in history and it’s come straight after the injury-hit Western Bulldogs won two interstate finals to claim the flag from seventh.
The business of winning premierships has never been more unpredictable.
GARY BUCKENARA: THE AFL’S TOP 30 DRAFT PROPECTS
FREES AGAINST: THE WORST OFFENDERS AT YOUR CLUB
This is a 2017 flag there for the taking. Catch fire in September — ala the Bulldogs — and you’re drinking champagne out of the cup on the MCG on September 30.
Who can play the best football at the right time? It’s a cliche, but it’s rarely been more fitting.
Why and why not? We’ve asked those two basic questions of the eight sides most likely to feature in finals — the top eight as it stands ahead of Round 23.
ADELAIDE
Why?
Please! No.1 side in the comp for points-scored and the only one to average more than 100 per game. Sixteen of the last 18 premiers have averaged 100-plus per week at the end of the home-and-away season.
The Crows are also the best side when it comes to defending opposition ball movement. Should also get two home finals at Adelaide Oval, a venue where they’ve won 25 of their past 30 games.
Why Not?
Wouldn’t want to run into Sydney, who they’ve only beaten in one of the last seven. Is the MCG a worry? Only just beat Carlton and lucky to draw with Collingwood.
GWS
Why?
Vintage rapper Slick Rick had nothing on the Giants, who are the slickest ball movers in the business. Combined with being the best clearance team, rivals are rarely “home” against Leon Cameron’s free-wheeling mob.
Why not?
What goes up must come down. Or in this case, what goes forward must go backward. The best transition side in the caper have an element of downhill skier about them, ranking in the bottom 10 for defending stoppage ball movement, turnover ball movement, and overall ball movement.
GEELONG
Why?
Finals football is contested football and the Cats win the contested possession count by an average of 7.4 per game — ranked second. Since Round 9 they are the second hardest side to generate an inside 50 against from a defensive half chain.
Why Not?
If Joel Selwood doesn’t get up then forget about it. But putting the skipper aside, the Cats’ scoring has dried up since Round 9 where they average only 88 points per game. Geelong is also ranking a lowly 13th for generating scores once inside 50m in this time.
RICHMOND
Why?
Because it’s Tiger Time. The other thing going for this success-starved club is that it plays a mean territory game. Richmond ranks second for time in forward half differential and creates 29 forward half turnovers per contest — also ranked No.2.
Why not?
Zip-3 in finals since 2001 is a reasonable place to start. This season’s territory dominance hasn’t transferred to the scoreboard either. The Tigers rank 14th for generating a goal once inside 50m.
PORT ADELAIDE
Why?
Third-best defensive side going around. Also prolific at scoring from stoppages, ranking No.1 for points-scored via that source and No.1 for points differential from stoppages.
Why Not?
Can’t beat the sides that will feature in September. Port has won only one of its eight matches against fellow top-eight sides.
SYDNEY
Why?
Beware the big-time bolter. The side with the most miserly defence, but one that also sits No.2 in points differential from turnovers — a stat that nine of the last 10 premiers have ranked top-four in. Should go in red-hot, with a Round 23 win over Carlton making it 11 wins from the last 12.
Why Not?
The Swans have lost five of their last seven finals — two of them Grand Finals.
MELBOURNE
Why?
With Richmond, the Bulldogs-like fairytale in the making. Punish rival mistakes, ranking fourth for points-scored from turnovers, while being the fourth-hardest side to move the ball against across the ground.
Why Not?
Not what you’d call the most fluid scoring machine. Rank 16th for offensive ball movement and 16th for converting inside 50s into a score.
ESSENDON
Why?
They score easily, Woosha’s men. The most lethal team in the competition when it comes to converting inside 50s to scores and they rank No.3 for goals per inside 50s. The latter strength is telling, with 15 of the last 18 premiers ranking top-6 for goals per inside 50m after the home-and-away rounds.
Why Not?
No secrets here — the midfield. Between the arcs Essendon rank 15th for contested possession differential and clearance differential. They can get butchered at the coalface and there’s plenty of that action next month.
Originally published as Field Marshal: Why your club can win the 2017 premiership, and why they can’t
Cornes: Port’s Dan Houston deal still looks dumb
Even with absolutely all factors taken into account, it’s a farce, writes Graham Cornes.
Dees star Oliver admits ‘I had a stinker’ in 2024
Clayton Oliver has spoken publicly for the first time about his 2024 season, the failed trade to Geelong and what 2025 looks like as the Dees attempt to rise back up the ladder.