Collingwood and North Melbourne to get much harder fixtures in 2019
COLLINGWOOD and North Melbourne can expect significantly harder draws next season after easy runs in 2018 as history shows how big an impact a side’s fixture can have on their fortunes.
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COLLINGWOOD and North Melbourne can expect significantly harder draws next season after climbing up the ladder on the back of favourable fixtures this year.
The AFL releases its 2019 fixture later this month, which is weighted to give teams who finish down the ladder the previous year an easier run.
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Official AFL number crunchers Champion Data ranked the Magpies’ fixture this year as the easiest and the Kangaroos the second-easiest after the pair both finished in the bottom six in 2017.
Collingwood faced double-up matches against Richmond, Essendon, Fremantle, Carlton and Brisbane — losing both games against the Tigers but chalking up eight wins against the other four sides.
North won seven of 10 games against its double-up opponents of Sydney, St Kilda, Western Bulldogs, Gold Coast and Brisbane.
The Pies went on to make the Grand Final after finishing third on the ladder while the Roos just missed finals by one game and percentage, finishing ninth.
Fremantle had the hardest draw this year and finished 14th, while St Kilda placed 16th after the fifth-hardest draw.
Teams with draws ranked among the five hardest have made finals just nine times from 20 attempts over the past four years.
Easier fixtures, as judged by Champion Data, have proven to be a big factor in teams that have made Grand Finals during the same period.
Richmond claimed the 2017 premiership on the back of the second-easiest fixture that year, while runner-up Adelaide had the sixth-easiest draw.
In 2016, Western Bulldogs broke a 62-year premiership drought having had the seventh-easiest draw, while West Coast made the 2015 Grand Final having had the second-easiest draw.
The AFL introduced a “weighted” fixture model ahead of the 2014 season to govern the five double-up matches in the 22-round season, with clubs grouped into three pools of six based on their finishing positions the previous year.
The 2019 season will kick off on Thursday, March 21 and again include a pre-finals bye ahead of a September 28 Grand Final.
As many as 12 Thursday night games are expected to be included in next year’s fixture, up from eight this year.
Originally published as Collingwood and North Melbourne to get much harder fixtures in 2019