Moneyball trade column: Jeremy Cameron to Essendon and the maths that could secure Tim Kelly
Something fishy could be going on at Essendon with Devon Smith seemingly central to ensuring the club can fill the void Joe Daniher may leave behind. but who is the man they're targeting? Jon Ralph and Jay Clark on the latest trade whispers.
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Essendon best-and-fairest winner Devon Smith is one of Jeremy Cameron’s favourite fishing buddies.
And if Joe Daniher bails from the Bombers to head north to the Swans, expect Smith to try and hook the Giants’ Coleman Medallist to try and fill the Daniher void.
Even if it is a longshot, the pair’s friendship would surely help the Bombers’ bid. Geelong is keen on country boy Cameron, too, to take over from Tom Hawkins.
But there is a snag in Essendon’s dream scenario.
While Daniher contemplates a shock trade move to try and escape the Melbourne footy bubble, Cameron loves life in Sydney for exactly the same reason — the anonymity of his life off the field.
The Giants remain confident they can keep 2020 free agents Cameron and Lachie Whitfield, having secured the crucial signatures of stars Josh Kelly and Stephen Coniglio this year.
Locking away all four superstars would be one of the most impressive list management accomplishments at club land in some time.
Stuck behind Callum Sinclair and Sam Naismith at Sydney, rival clubs are aware Darcy Cameron is gettable.
He has been persistently linked to Carlton, who are searching for their next frontline ruckman as part of plans to one day replace veteran Matthew Kreuzer.
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But as of yesterday the strong mail was that he wasn’t going to the Blues, with another Victorian club having secured a commitment to land him.
Around the league, recruiters are bemoaning the lack of ready-made ruck options emerging out of the second-tier competitions, placing greater value on the existing AFL big men.
Geelong tabled an extraordinary four-year deal to poach North Melbourne free agent Todd Goldstein, while Hawthorn whipped up a three-year contract to keep Jon Ceglar at Waverley.
You’d imagine Geelong coach Chris Scott would have leant on his brother Brad’s advice in the race for Goldstein.
THE MATHS THAT SECURES KELLY
West Coast will attempt to secure Tim Kelly using picks 14, 22 and 32 - but doesn’t want to give up two first-rounders for the star midfielder.
Their first bid for Kelly - who will request a trade from Geelong to West Coast - would likely be two first-rounders with a second-rounder back.
The Eagles have analysed many of the blockbuster deals in recent years and almost all of them don’t involve handing over two pure first-rounders.
Deals for Dylan Shiel, Jake Lever, Bryce Gibbs, Dayne Beams and Patrick Dangerfield have all mostly seen a sum total of a first-rounder and a second-rounder or two first-rounders with a second-rounder back.
Geelong’s position will be that this is a unique case given Kelly is in All Australian form and hasn’t even reached his peak.
Kelly denied the Herald Sun report that his decision was made up, but West Coast has been aware for some time he will request a trade to the Eagles.
TRADE BAIT HOTS UP
Moneyball flagged Sam Powell-Pepper’s potential to be trade bait last week, and if anything that speculation has intensified.
He wants to remain at the club but Port Adelaide clearly is interested in finding out what he would be worth on the open market given Ken Hinkley hasn’t always wanted to play him as a regular inside midfielder.
Essendon wouldn’t contemplate a straight Orazio Fantasia - Powell-Pepper swap but so much is happening in the trade market who could rule out anything.
Essendon has some interest but would need to move on some players to get something done with Powell-Pepper, who fits their needs as a tough inside mid.
The speculation about Dougal Howard getting to the Dogs continues despite the Power’s hopes of keeping him long-term.
MAN BEHIND THE DEALS
Ralph Carr is keen to build a boutique stadium of 10-20 players after adding Daniel Rioli to his stable of Tigers that sits at Dustin Martin, Mabior Chol and Shai Bolton.
He said this morning after Rioli moved to his stable he was adamant keeping a smaller stable allowed him to help the players build their off-field brand in a way the massive players agents could not.
He secured a seven-year deal over $8 million for Martin when others urged the Tigers star to sign on early for less, and hired the personal trainer that got Shai Bolton fit back in Perth over summer.
Bolton just signed on with a new two-year deal despite interest from West Coast that to be honest was never likely to see him move.
SWAN HEADING SOUTH?
Sydney snared Shane Mumford from Geelong a decade ago with the guarantee of more senior opportunities.
And now Melbourne clubs are attempting to poach 204cm big man Darcy Cameron from the Swans’ clutches dangling the same carrot.
Cameron, 24, has played only one game in two years at Sydney and could be on the move to Victoria for a chance to establish himself as a No. 1 ruckman.
DOCKER MOVING ALREADY?
Connor Blakely could still be available to clubs in eastern states despite signing a three-year deal with the Dockers only months ago.
Victorian clubs have been made aware he could be available for trade as the club’s turbulent off-season continues.
Brad Hill will tell the players today that he is off to St Kilda as he attends a bucks party with many of his teammates.
ADELAIDE COOL IT ON PIE
Adelaide is yet to register any interest in Collingwood’s Matthew Scharenberg.
The Crows are contemplating a significant rebuild but the Collingwood defender isn’t yet part of those plans.
Scharenberg was linked to a possible move away from the Magpies’ nest, having lost his spot in the qualifying final team.
But the South Australian has no intentions to force his way out of Collingwood in this year’s trade period.
Originally published as Moneyball trade column: Jeremy Cameron to Essendon and the maths that could secure Tim Kelly