Moneyball AFL trade and draft news: All the latest on potential 2023 player movement
Carlton is no chance of landing this year’s near-certain No.1 pick, but he will be lining up in navy blue. Here’s why.
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This year’s near-certain No. 1 draft pick Harley Reid is set to play for Carlton – but only for its VFL side and only for a few weeks.
Reid was the star attraction for three quarters in the AFL Academy match against Port Adelaide’s SANFL team in the Adelaide Hills last Saturday.
Every AFL club had scouts at the game, with many of them having three or four representatives.
The most sought after player currently outside the AFL system, Reid will don the navy blue in the VFL as part of his final year footy education with Bendigo Pioneers.
The Pioneers have a partnership with Carlton, which means the Dustin Martin clone could play a few VFL games, though he has no chance of being with the Blues in 2024.
Reid, who turned 18 on Monday, is considered a lock as this year’s No. 1 pick, with recruiting insiders saying there is a gulf between him and the other leading draft candidates.
One recruiter said the gap between No. 1 and potential No. 2 picks is wider than it has been in recent memory.
While rival clubs will look at a suite of trade options to get access to the No. 1 pick, it seems certain this year’s wooden spooners – whoever it is – won’t entertain any offers, given Reid’s huge potential.
The midfielder had 22 disposals, five inside 50s, seven clearances and kicked a goal, with 18 disposals coming in the first half on Saturday before he was moved out of the midfield.
AFL Talent Ambassador Kevin Sheehan said: “He was the most exciting player in the game (against Port Adelaide), no doubt.”
“He played midfield and forward in the first half and with 30 players playing, it was a development game, so he ended up playing fullback and halfback in the third quarter and he sat on the bench in the last quarter.”
Sheehan said Reid appeared to be handling the pressure on him well.
“Maybe he’s just a good country boy, that’s the way he tackles it … it (the attention) doesn’t seem to worry him day in and day out. He formed a reputation last year, he made All-Australian and played nationals, so I have no doubt that would be his aim this year to back that up.
“He’s stepped up and is captaining Bendigo and he’s started his season promising.”
TEX WAITING ON DEAL AS CROWS EYE FREE AGENTS
Taylor Walker is content to wait until the mid-season break to consider his next one-year contract despite another strong start to the season.
Walker has kicked seven goals in the past two weeks including a sparkling three-goal effort in the statement win over Carlton
With 10 goals in five games Walker, 35 on Anzac Day, is on track to play on into a 15th season.
But both club and player are happy to get to the mid-season bye to monitor his form and fitness before he commits to a deal to end his days at the Crows.
Adelaide’s list build looks vastly improved in recent weeks as high picks Chayce Jones and Wayne Milera find form and father-son pick Max Michalanney justifies his reputation after the Crows matched a bid at pick 17.
Adelaide will continue to monitor free agents Harry Himmelberg and Mason Redman, who are in no hurry to sign new deals.
HOT START MAY FORCE SAINTS, DONS TO MATCH
St Kilda and Essendon would have to seriously consider matching any bids for their restricted free agents in the event Jade Gresham, Mason Redman or Darcy Parish wanted to walk out this year.
The Saints and Bombers have enjoyed phenomenal starts to the season and occupy the top two-spots on the ladder after bold calls to change coach late last year.
By matching restricted free agency bids, clubs can force a more attractive trade return in the same manner GWS Giants secured picks 13, 15 and 25 for the departure of Jeremy Cameron in 2020.
While free agents Parish and Redman have enjoyed strong starts to the year, Gresham been slower out of the blocks, spending more time forward under new coach Ross Lyon.
Parish (19 AFL Coaches Association votes) and Redman (17 votes) are expected to compete for All-Australian contention, but Gresham is yet to poll a coaches vote this season after bagging five goals in five games.
Gresham played 56 per cent midfield time last year but that has reduced to 28 per cent this year, according to Champion Data, despite the loss of superstar captain Jack Steele to a serious shoulder injury a fortnight ago.
Gresham had only seven possessions in the loss to Collingwood on Sunday.
At St Kilda Steele, Brad Crouch, Seb Ross and Clark have played well as the key cogs onball under Lyon, while youngsters Marcus Windhager, Jack Bytel and Mattaes Phillipou have also entered the engine room.
If Gresham, Redman or Parish wanted to leave, their clubs would receive a compensation pick (either first or second-round depending on their salaries) which are tied to their ladder positions.
It means if the Bombers and Saints finish inside the top-eight their clubs would most likely receive picks in the teens for the departures of their stars if their salaries are more than $800,000-a-year, triggering first-round compensation.
But all three are restricted free agents, meaning their clubs have the capacity to match any bids from rivals in an effort to either keep the player or force a better return through a trade.
The two clubs would likely want top-10 picks for the departures of Parish, Redman or Gresham.
LOCKDOWN BLUE CLOSE TO BEING LOCKED IN
Nic Newman is deep in contract talks with the Blues to extend his deal as he continues his excellent start to 2023.
He locked down Toby Greene in a spectacular performance in the win over GWS two weeks ago and was solid in Izak Rankine despite Adelaide’s victory on Thursday.
The 30-year-old was noncommittal about the progress of his talks when asked on the morning after the Gather Round loss but he is on track for a new deal in the near future.
Having only turned 30 in January he would hope to push for a multi-year agreement.
With his excellent left foot and great form as a stopper he has proved invaluable, especially given Carlton’s spate of injuries to key defenders continues with Adam Saad (hamstring tightness) and Mitch McGovern (a late withdrawal with calf tightness) both having issues out of the Adelaide clash.
FRINGE LION COULD FIND NEW HOME
Brisbane midfielder Dev Robertson might need to move clubs to secure an onball role as rival clubs make plays for the No. 22 pick from the 2019 national draft.
Robertson is from West Australia and last year had some interest from Perth-based clubs but his suitors are believed to include Victorian teams this time around.
He played round 1 and then had only one possession in 52 minutes as the sub in round 2 and one disposal in 11 minutes when subbed on in round 4.
After 16 games in his second season he played only eight last year and Josh Dunkley and Will Ashcroft have pushed him further back this year.
Ashcroft’s brother Levi will arrive at the end of next year and father-son Jaspa Fletcher also arrived with Will Ashcroft in last year’s draft as a midfielder.
It means he will likely have to find a second home to become an established midfielder despite Brisbane’s determination to re-sign him.
EMERGING DEE HOLDS FIRE ON NEW DEAL
Melbourne’s Kade Chandler is likely to wait until 10 weeks into the season before progressing his contract talks as rival clubs circle the talented pressuring forward.
The Demons are keen to move on his contract after an early splashy start with seven goals in five games and six score involvements a game.
The very strong likelihood is that he remains at the club but having played only 10 games in the four seasons leading into this year, rivals were aware of his potential.
Now that he is getting a regular game at the Demons – and allowing the likes of Kysaiah Pickett to be released up the field – it will surely see him decide his future is at Melbourne.
FREE AGENT DOG AFTER SECURITY AT KENNEL
Western Bulldogs free agent Bailey Williams is happy to wait until late in the season to assess his future despite his happiness at Whitten Oval.
When players hit free agency status rivals increase their interest given the ease with which they can poach them.
The Dogs have already locked away free agents including Tom Liberatore and Ryan Gardner but as a dependable rebounding defender Williams will have interest.
A longer-term deal given his free agency status rather than a huge contract is likely to keep him at the Dogs.
Ryan Gardner was able to secure three years given his free agency status so the model is there for a similar deal for Williams.
MORE MAJOR EVENTS COULD BE ON THE MOVE
The AFL is almost certain to look at taking more “big ticket properties” – including the National Draft – on the road in the future, in particular to the northern states, after the success of the inaugural Gather Round in Adelaide.
While this year’s national draft is set to remain in Melbourne, discussions in AFL circles in the coming months will likely centre on potentially moving it north in the coming years.
With Adelaide set to host Gather Round for the next three seasons, it is understood Sydney, Brisbane and the Gold Coast could be considered for other movable football events.
The league is desperate to keep working on growing the game up north, which increases the prospect of moving some of its properties outside of Victoria would be tempting.
The AFL has shown in the past its preparedness to move major events for various reasons, including the national draft, which has previously been held in Sydney, Gold Coast and Adelaide, and Covid lockdowns also saw Dreamtime held in Darwin and Perth in 2020 and 2021.
It is not known if the AFL would consider moving the Brownlow Medal, which has twice been held outside Victoria (1999 and 2021), as well as a virtual event in 2020.
The AFL grand final is one thing that definitely won’t be moving.
Footy’s showcase day is locked into the MCG until the end of the 2059 season as part of a three-way agreement between the MCC, the AFL and the Victorian Government.
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Originally published as Moneyball AFL trade and draft news: All the latest on potential 2023 player movement
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