AFL Grand Final 2021 Preview: Tips, teams, Norm Smith Medal winner, first goal scorer and Mick McGuane’s analysis

AFL Grand Final day is here. Who wins? And which player will take home the Norm Smith medal? Our experts have their say, plus try the ultimate Grand Final quiz.

Mick McGuane and Simeon Thomas-Wilson

12 min read

September 25, 2021 - 10:57AM

News Corp Australia Sports Newsroom

Mick McGuane thinks Melbourne captain Max Gawn can lead his side to this year’s premiership. Picture: Michael Klein

AFL

Don't miss out on the headlines from AFL. Followed categories will be added to My News.

It’s AFL Grand Final day and the countdown to the first bounce is on.

Can Max Gawn lead the Demons to their first premiership since 1964? or will Marcus Bontempelli make the Western Suburbs erupt as it did in 2016?

See who our expects predict to be leaving Perth with the Premiership Cup.

Stream selected Fox Footy shows on Kayo Freebies completely free this June including AFL 360, On The Couch, Bounce & more. No Credit Card. No-brainer. Register Free Now >

It’s almost time for the 2021 AFL Grand Final. Picture: Paul Kane/Getty Images

Marc McGowan(145)

Premiers: Melbourne by 12

First goal: K. Pickett

Norm Smith: C. Petracca

Last Week: 1

James Hird (139)

Premiers: Melbourne by 15

First goal: M. Gawn

Norm Smith: M. Gawn

Last Week: 2

Liz Walsh (139)

Premiers: Melbourne by 23

First goal: A. Naughton

Norm Smith: M. Gawn

Last Week: 1

Scott Gullan (138)

Premiers: Western Bulldogs by 9

First goal: A. Naughton

Norm Smith: M. Bontempelli

Last Week: 1

Martin Pakula (138)

Premiers: Western Bulldogs by 4

First goal: B. Fritsch

Norm Smith: C. Daniel

Last Week: 1

Jay Clark (137)

Premiers: Melbourne by 12

First goal: B. Fritsch

Norm Smith: C. Salem

Last Week: 1

LIVE BLOG: FOLLOW ALL THE AFL GRAND FINAL DAY NEWS AND ACTION

Could Max Gawn be the difference for Melbourne? Picture: Michael Klein

David King (137)

Premiers: Melbourne by 32

First goal: K. Pickett

Norm Smith: C. Petracca

Last Week: 1

Jon Ralph (134)

Premiers: Melbourne by 28

First goal: C. Petracca

Norm Smith: K. Pickett

Last Week: 1

Rebecca Williams (134)

Premiers: Melbourne by 5

First goal: C. Petracca

Norm Smith: C. Oliver

Last Week: 1

Gerard Whateley (133)

Premiers: Western Bulldogs by 1

First goal: C. Petracca

Norm Smith: A. Treloar

Last Week: 0

Brad Johnson (132)

Premiers: Western Bulldogs by 10

First goal: C. Weightman

Norm Smith: J. Dunkley

Last Week: 2

Glenn McFarlane (132)

Premiers: Melbourne by 1

First goal: A. Naughton

Norm Smith: C. Oliver

Last Week: 1

Nick Riewoldt (132)

Premiers: Melbourne by 21

First goal: K. Pickett

Norm Smith: C. Petracca

Last Week: 1

Tim Watson (132)

Premiers: Melbourne by 13

First goal: B. Brown

Norm Smith: J. Viney

Last Week: 1

Chris Cavanagh (130)

Premiers: Melbourne by 11

First goal: B. Fritsch

Norm Smith: C. Petracca

Last Week: 1

Michael Warner (130)

Premiers: Melbourne by 37

First goal: A. Naughton

Norm Smith: C. Oliver

Last Week: 1

Sarah Jones (129)

Premiers: Melbourne by 15

First goal: A. Naughton

Norm Smith: M. Gawn

Last Week: 1

Sam Landsberger (129)

Premiers: Western Bulldogs by 22

First goal: A. Naughton

Norm Smith: J. Macrae

Last Week: 2

Mick McGuane (129)

Premiers: Melbourne by 5

First goal: B. Fritsch

Norm Smith: C. Petracca

Last Week: 1

Simeon Thomas-Wilson (129)

Premiers: Western Bulldogs by 3

First goal: K. Pickett

Norm Smith: B. Smith

Last Week: 0

Bailey Smith was unstopabble against the Power. Picture: Michael Klein

Matt Turner (129)

Premiers: Melbourne by 19

First goal: A. Naughton

Norm Smith: M. Gawn

Last Week: 2

Mick Malthouse (128)

Premiers: Melbourne by 10

First goal: C. Weightman

Norm Smith: B. Smith

Last Week: 1

Mark Robinson (127)

Premiers: Western Bulldogs by 12

First goal: B. Brown

Norm Smith: L. Hunter

Last Week: 1

Dermott Brereton (126)

Premiers: Melbourne by 6 (O/T)

First goal: C. Weightman

Norm Smith: C. Oliver

Last Week: 2

Michael O’Brien (122)

Premiers: Melbourne by 2

First goal: C. Petracca

Norm Smith: M. Bontempelli

Last Week: 2

Sally Capp (115)

Premiers: Melbourne by 3

First goal: K. Pickett

Norm Smith: M. Gawn

Last Week: 1

Kiss of Death (78)

Premiers: Western Bulldogs by 13

First goal: C. Daniel

Norm Smith: E. Wood

Last Week: 1

THE TEAMS

Western Bulldogs coach Luke Beveridge has made the heartbreaking call of leaving Ryan Gardner and Laitham Vandermeer out of Saturday’s grand final side.

Both were dropped at the selection table on Thursday night after playing in the Bulldogs preliminary final thumping over Port Adelaide.

Cody Weightman has been selected for the Grand Final at the expense of Laitham Vandermeer. Picture: Getty Images

As expected opponent Melbourne will go into the Perth Stadium clash with an unchanged line-up from the side that thrashed Geelong two weeks ago.

Key defender Steven May was subbed out of that clash with a hamstring strain but was ruled fit to play after a Wednesday training session, while small forward Charlie Spargo shook off an ankle injury scare.

The Bulldogs axed Gardner and Vandermeer to bring back Alex Keath (hamstring strain) and Cody Weightman (concussion).

Both could still potentially be involved in the game as the medical sub having been named among the emergencies.

They will come into contention alongside Anthony Scott, who was activated as the medical substitute in the preliminary final, and Ed Richards.

The Bulldogs can wait to name their medical sub until an hour before the first bounce.

For the Demons James Jordon, Jake Melksham, Jayden Hunt and Kade Chandler have been named as emergencies.

Jordon has been the medical substitute for the Demons this final series and would be expected to get the nod again.

Melbourne v Western Bulldogs

Saturday September 25, 7:15pm AEST/5:15pm AWST at Optus Stadium

DEMONS

B: M.Hibberd, S.May, J.Lever

HB: T.Rivers, H.Petty, C.Salem

C: A.Brayshaw, C.Petracca, E.Langdon

HF: A.Neal-Bullen, T.McDonald, T.Sparrow

F: C.Spargo, B.Brown, B.Fritsch

FOLL: M.Gawn, C.Oliver, J.Viney

I/C: J.Harmes, L.Jackson, J.Bowey, K.Pickett

EMG: J.Melksham, J.Jordon, J.Hunt, K.Chandler

IN: Nil

OUT: J.Jordon (sub)

BULLDOGS

B: E.Wood, A.Keath, B.Williams

HB: C.Daniel, Z.Cordy, B.Dale

C: B.Smith, T.Liberatore, L.Hunter

HF: C.Weightman, A.Naughton, A.Treloar

F: J.Schache, T.English, M.Hannan

FOLL: S.Martin, J.Macrae, M.Bontempelli

I/C: J.Johannisen, J.Dunkley, T.Duryea, R.Smith

EMG: L.Vandermeer, E.Richards, A.Scott, R.Gardner

IN: A.Keath, C.Weightman

OUT: R.Gardner (omitted), A.Scott (sub), L.Vandermeer (omitted)

MCGUANE: WHERE THE GRAND FINAL WILL BE WON

The big dance is almost here and it shapes as an intriguing contest between two sides who go about things a little differently.

Collingwood 1990 premiership player Mick McGuane breaks down the Grand Final with this mega preview.

MELBOURNE

WHAT TO EXPECT

The Demons to back their brand, which has got them this far. They are a tough and uncompromising side that gets the fire started at the coalface with Max Gawn, Clayton Oliver, Christian Petracca, Jack Viney and James Harmes. The start of this grand final will be brutal in a physical sense. Melbourne will try and create a strong territory game. They will look to get the game on their terms on the back of their clearance-winning ability, a high kick-to-handball ratio and ruthless forward half pressure that has been a feature of their finals series so far. Effective tackling, which is a choice, will also be front of mind for Melbourne players, who will be out to assault the Western Bulldogs ball carriers in a manic and physical way. History has no relevance with this group — it’s all about them creating their own.

Melbourne ruckman Max Gawn will need to lead the charge for the Demons in the midfield. Picture: Michael Klein

THE KEY

Stifle the Bulldogs’ strength at stoppages. Win the contested ball and clearances but, most importantly, post-clearance contested ball wins must be a priority. The Demons need to “hunt with grunt” and they have players who do that well in Oliver, Petracca and Viney. But keeping good shape and width off the ball is equally important. It adds vital defensive layers off the contest which must exist against the Bulldogs so they just can’t flick the ball around to get their offensive ball movement into gear. That didn’t happen when these sides last met in Round 19, with the Bulldogs scoring 46 points from clearances — their fifth-most of the season. It’s not only about winning stoppages, but how you defend them as well. The Demons must get the right balance of when to attack and when to defend. Always rolling the dice could lead to disastrous consequences.

THE CHALLENGE

Can the key forwards stand up? You’ve got Tom McDonald, who was almost traded last year, and Ben Brown, who wasn’t given a contract at North Melbourne before finding a new home. Here’s a chance for both of them to solidify the reasons why they are on Melbourne’s list. In grand final’s, key forwards simply must stand up and impose themselves in the air as well as hit the scoreboard — think Jack Riewoldt, Tom Lynch, Tom Boyd and Josh Kennedy. When these sides last met in Round 19, Melbourne’s goals per inside-50 percentage was only 17.6 per cent which was their fourth-lowest efficiency of the year. They can’t afford a return like that again.

Can Ben Brown stand up for the Demons in the grand final? Picture: Michael Klein

THE CONCERN

The finals preparation. As good as the Demons have been all year, the league’s pre-grand final bye adds an element of concern. Entering the grand final, the Demons would have only played one game in 28 days. That’s not ideal, and most players who have been in this situation before would say they would prefer continuity to ensure they are match-hardened and in a routine. The questions will be, will it help or hinder the team’s performance? How have the players dealt with it? And have too many players already played the game in their head? The Demons won’t want to be five per cent off. The other concern is Steven May’s hamstring. If it pops early in the game, Melbourne is in strife.

THE THEME

Stay the course and believe in what has got you here. Melbourne has had a team-first attitude this year and I’ve always been a believer that individuals can contribute but teams win grand finals. Players like Angus Brayshaw, Ed Langdon, Harrison Petty, Alex Neal-Bullen, James Jordan and James Harmes all understand the significant roles they play. When perfected well the team benefits. The Demons players will also need to be flexible in-game defensively and potentially sacrifice their own games for the benefit of the team. Structurally, an “in game” adjustment might be required, especially if Bailey Smith gets off the chain.

THE STAR

Christian Petracca. He continues to thrive and has matured into an elite footballer on the back of commitment to his trade and improved fitness levels. Petracca is clearly one of the competition’s game-breakers and we’ve witnessed with Dustin Martin what a match winner can do in finals. Much like Martin, Petracca is a centre-forward player who has logged only seven per cent of his possessions this year in the defensive 50 and he possesses similar breakaway power from stoppages which is so dangerous. Petracca has kicked 27.18 this year — which is great conversion overall — but in finals he has managed only 2.2 against Brisbane and 1.2 against Geelong. Take his chances in front of goal this week and he could join Martin as a Norm Smith Medal winner.

Crafty mid-size forward Bailey Fritsch could play a key role for Melbourne. Picture: Michael Klein

X-FACTOR

Bailey Fritsch. The 188cm forward might be a left-field choice, but I’ve got question marks over whether the small-to-medium size Bulldogs defenders can keep the small-to-medium Melbourne forwards quiet. In his two games against the Bulldogs this year, Fritsch has kicked a combined five goals out of a team total of 22 goals. He’s an unsung hero who gets the job done with no fuss. He is the type of player who can have five kicks but kick four goals given his lethal kicking leg — meaning he could help Melbourne win the game.

IF I WAS MELBOURNE …

Steven May picks up Aaron Naughton. Harrison Petty goes to Tim English. A combination of Trent Rivers and Michael Hibberd goes to Cody Weightman. Then Jake Lever takes his pick of who he needs to play on for his creative intercepting game to thrive. Keeping Bailey Smith quiet will be a huge consideration given his out-of-this-world finals series. Smith is the only player since 1999 to average at least 20 disposals, 500m gained, five inside-50s and 2.5 goals a game in a finals series. You can ill-afford to let him roam free and must ensure his disposals are under pressure. I’d start James Harmes as a high half-forward but then have him roll up to engage Tom Liberatore in general play, allowing Christian Petracca the creative license to push forward. The message to Max Gawn would be to work hard back to support the defence but also slide forward and try and hit the scoreboard. Gawn must also spend some time out of the goalsquare when Luke Jackson rucks, which will force the Bulldogs defenders to readjust their match ups.

Western Bulldogs ruckman Stefan Martin needs to bring some aggression early for the Bulldogs. Picture: Michael Klein

WESTERN BULLDOGS

WHAT TO EXPECT

A physical and brutal start. It’s got to come from Stefan Martin as an aggressive ruckman and Marcus Bontempelli, Jack Macrae and Tom Liberatore in the middle. The centre bounce crew must set the scene. Winning territory and playing a strong forward-half game is the Bulldogs’ way and that’s when they play their best. The Bulldogs have a capacity to generate scores from inside-50s better than any other team so supply is the key, which generally comes from a committed, hardworking midfield group. Defending scores from stoppages will be a focus for the Bulldogs, who can’t allow Clayton Oliver and Christian Petracca to latch onto Max Gawn’s ruck work and charge out of stoppages like they did against Geelong. The Bulldogs will most likely want to saturate the stoppages with extra numbers to help out their defence and kickstart their attack.

THE KEY

The Bulldogs’ ball movement against Melbourne’s measly defensive set-up. The Demons have been a great pressure team all year but their tackle efficiency during finals has gone through the roof to 69.2 per cent. Without the ball, they are a tough team to play against. That is going to test the Bulldogs’ ball movement and in big games effective ball use is a critical element. The Bulldogs will need to ensure they get the ball in the hands of their best ball users and decision makers at every opportunity to kickstart their offence — whether it be Marcus Bontempelli, Caleb Daniel or Bailey Dale. Lacking courage or conviction with ball movement will play into the hands of the Melbourne defenders. Time to be daring.

The Western Bulldogs need to get the ball in the hands of their best users like Caleb Daniel to get through Melbourne’s defence. Picture: Michael Klein

THE CHALLENGE

Mastering inside-50 efficiency. How the Bulldogs kick inside-50 will determine the result. When Luke Beveridge’s team has kicked 85 points or more this year they have a 15-0 record. When they beat Melbourne in Round 19, they reached that 85-point mark. When they lost to the Demons in Round 11, they managed only 59 points and recorded their third-lowest inside-50 efficiency of the year. The Bulldogs have got to isolate and separate and create one-on-ones with space to lead into. Aaron Naughton needs to test Steven May’s hamstring with his explosive leading and the Bulldogs’ ball carriers need to lower the eyes and look for short hit up targets. It’s no point bombing in high balls for May and Jake Lever to pick off.

THE CONCERN

Max Gawn — both at stoppages and in general play. Martin and Tim English must play out of their skins to nullify the Demons’ captain. Gawn is match-hardened, fit and healthy. By comparison, an undersized Martin has had limited preparation after playing his first game since Round 12 in the preliminary final. Martin is strong around stoppages, but is he match-fit to go with Gawn when he pushes hard forward? A disclaimer also remains on English and whether he can be a ruthless competitor on the big stage. How much does English want to hurt, work and compete to dethrone the best ruckman in the competition? The other concern for the Bulldogs is Alex Keath’s hamstring.

Alex Keath’s hamstring is still a cause for slight concern. Picture: Michael Klein

THE THEME

Bring the ball to ground, especially inside forward 50. You have to take away Melbourne’s intercept prowess, which includes keeping Lever honest. It also works into the hands of the Bulldogs, who won the ground ball count by 37 against Port Adelaide in their preliminary final. Every time the ball hit the ground in that game, there were Bulldogs players ready to pounce. The Bulldogs key forwards simply have to either mark the ball or bring it to ground to invite their small forwards like Mitch Hannan and Cody Weightman into the game.

THE STAR

Marcus Bontempelli. I love his demeanour as a level-headed and composed captain. The occasion won’t bother him at all. The best players see the game unfold before others do and Bontempelli can make a high-pressure game like a grand final stand still. His penetration by foot will be key in a game where territory will be immensely important and I would not be surprised if he spends some time playing out of the goalsquare where he can impact the scoreboard. Bontempelli missed out on the Brownlow Medal but could well finish the year with a Norm Smith Medal.

Could Mitch Hannan be the ghost that haunts Melbourne after the Demons let him go last year? Picture: Michael Klein

X-FACTOR

Mitch Hannan. The medium-size forward gives the Bulldogs’ attack a point of difference and has kicked six goals in an exceptional finals campaign so far. He is competitive, gives 100% effort, is good in the air, hits the ground ball contest with great intensity and instinctively applies pressure. Forward 50 tackling in finals is critical and that is what Hannan can provide for his team. Will he become Melbourne’s ghost, as a player they let go last year?

IF I WAS THE WESTERN BULLDOGS …

Keath to Ben Brown. Zaine Cordy to Tom McDonald. Bailey Williams and Easton Wood as a combination will have to spend time on Bailey Fritsch. Start Martin in the ruck and wind him up to provide really strong competition against Max Gawn. Use Josh Dunkley at stages throughout the game to engage Clayton Oliver, particularly at stoppages in general play. You need to try and limit his first-possession gains that Oliver is so elite at. I’d be conscious of Gawn and particularly his tendency to slide forward. Martin must go all the way with him, be physical and try to take away Gawn’s run and jump at the footy. At times, roll Smith and Treloar up to stoppages to outnumber the Demons and force Simon Goodwin’s hand on what he’s going to do. Defensively, engage Lever with Hannan and a bit of Josh Shache. Try to get the match-up there that works for you.