Mick McGuane: Every finals contender’s biggest concern and how they can fix them
There are 13 teams still in the race to play finals, but all of them have their issues. MICK McGUANE picks the problems apart — and looks at what sides can do to fix them in the run home.
AFL
Don't miss out on the headlines from AFL. Followed categories will be added to My News.
With six rounds to go, the top-eight is far from set as 13 teams vie for September success.
AFL analyst Mick McGuane has taken a look at every finals contender’s biggest problem heading into the pointy end of the season — and what they must do to address it.
SYDNEY
The Swans have clearly done a lot right to have only lost three games to this point of the season.
However, there’s been a pattern in those losses that has been somewhat concerning.
Across Sydney’s 14 wins this season, it has allowed the opposition to take just 77.2 uncontested marks on average.
In losses, the Swans have given up 102 uncontested marks to Richmond, 94 uncontested marks to Fremantle and 111 uncontested marks to St Kilda.
Rival teams are realising that the best way to play Sydney is to defend with the footy through a kick-mark method.
The Swans have shown they can limit opposition uncontested marks against the better teams, including only giving up 60 to Melbourne in opening round, 77 to Carlton in round 10, 78 to Geelong in round 13 and 75 to Greater Western Sydney in round 15.
That suggests that complacency may have crept in during the losses and their renowned pressure and defensive structures were not at the level they needed to be.
Rehearse it now, because conceding too many uncontested marks could be a concern come September.
CARLTON
Defensively, the Blues are a leaking sieve.
They rank 15th for points against, 17th for points against from stoppages and 14th for defending opposition ball movement from halfback to inside-50.
Those are unheard of numbers for a team sitting second on the ladder.
Too many individuals aren’t putting enough emphasis on defending stoppages, particularly those in Carlton’s defensive 50.
There were glaring examples against the Bulldogs last weekend where defenders and midfielders failed to put an arm across opponents at stoppages and then were caught napping in costly errors of judgement. Adam Saad was an example of this. He goes to sleep far too often.
The good news is that the Blues’ problems are fixable.
I’ve got no doubt that Michael Voss will be drilling into his players the importance of adhering to a strong defensive mindset in areas of the ground that need it and there should be a response against North Melbourne this week.
You can’t purely rely on your offensive output to get the job done — especially come September.
GEELONG
The Cats have had some obvious personnel problems through the midfield.
When it comes to the ruck stocks, Rhys Stanley is in the VFL and Toby Conway is sidelined for the rest of the season with a foot injury, forcing them to improvise with Sam De Koning.
Among the on-ballers, Patrick Dangerfield has only played four games back from injury, while Cam Guthrie is still a few weeks away from returning from an Achilles issue.
All that has contributed to the Cats ranking 18th in the competition for clearance differential, 15th for points from clearance and 14th for contested possession differential.
Historically under Chris Scott, Geelong has been more of a turnover scoring team.
But in finals, you need some stoppage prowess to give your defenders time to set up behind the ball.
The Cats need to decide if De Koning is the answer in the ruck — and soon — as well as build Dangerfield’s game time and get him primed for the end of the year.
Guthrie is also as important as anybody and his late-season return could provide a major boost and help the Cats find a greater balance between their turnover and stoppage game.
BRISBANE LIONS
It’s been a remarkable turnaround from the Lions to sit top-four after a 2-5 start to the season.
However, the six-game winning streak that Brisbane is riding has camouflaged some real concerns.
The Lions are relying on their offence to win them games, through being a strong contest, clearance and territory team.
They are getting the ball into a diverse forward line which can hit the scoreboard through the likes of Joe Daniher, Eric Hipwood, Charlie Cameron, Cam Rayner and Zac Bailey.
But their defensive profile since the bye leaves a lot to be desired.
I question whether players are completely buying into lifting their defensive pressure, given the Lions have ranked 15th for their pressure rating in the past six rounds.
During that period, they have also conceded a score from 49 per cent of opposition inside-50s — ranked 17th in the competition.
That’s a concerning return.
The past six weeks have seen Brisbane face just one current top-eight team, but there are some tougher assignments ahead starting with Sydney this week.
Defensive actions across the ground must lift, because having a ‘we’ll kick more goals than you’ mentality rarely holds up in finals.
They remind me of the Geelong team of the 1990s under Malcolm Blight.
The shootout philosophy they adopted didn’t get them that elusive flag.
FREMANTLE
It’s hard to knock the Dockers from a defensive standpoint and they are improving their scoring profile through slick ball movement.
However, the midfield group has some work to do in one key area.
Post-clearance contested possession wins are key in the modern game and the Dockers aren’t getting it done in that area.
When it comes to pre-clearance contested ball, Caleb Serong, Andrew Brayshaw, Nat Fyfe and Hayden Young all rank among the top-40 players in the competition.
But for post-clearance contested ball wins Serong ranks 66th in the competition and the other three are outside the top 100.
Only one bloke is consistently working to win contest or ground ball after the ball has left stoppage situations and that is Serong.
The midfield group must challenge themselves to change that and improve their post-clearance numbers.
Doing so will only help better support the Dockers’ defence and provide more opportunities for the forwards.
ESSENDON
As much as they have made some inroads this year, the Bombers’ defensive profile is still a real worry.
They are not defending opposition ball movement well enough and that is limiting the ability of the defenders to stop scores.
Essendon ranks 15th for restricting opposition ball movement from defensive 50 to inside-50 and ranks 14th for scores per inside-50 against.
Many of those opposition scores are coming from turnovers, with the Bombers sitting 15th for points against from turnovers at an average of 52 points per game.
Comparatively, Fremantle is the top-ranked team in that category, conceding just 41 points a game from turnover.
Essendon has to put a renewed emphasis on defensive efforts and actions, which in turn will help their own offensive game.
Carlton scored a goal from 38 per cent of its inside-50s against the Bombers in round 13.
The Bombers won’t survive the run home little finals with returns like that.
It’s time to tighten the screws.
GREATER WESTERN SYDNEY
The Giants must rediscover the tsunami.
It’s only been appearing sporadically this year and has too often gone missing in the side’s losses.
Injury issues for prime movers and silky ball users like Lachie Ash, Josh Kelly and Stephen Coniglio have not helped.
But without the tsunami getting back in full swing, I can’t see GWS winning the premiership.
In the Giants’ wins this year, they have recorded an average of 565 metres gained from forward handball.
By contrast, in losses they have averaged just 351 metres gained from forward handball.
Since round 11, Adam Kingsley’s side also ranks 15th for both defensive 50 to inside-50 ball movement and points from defensive half.
They have got to get back to taking the game on at speed.
Giving the ball to their “offensive igniters” is a must in the next six weeks.
That is when this side best connects and becomes a highly dangerous outfit.
MELBOURNE
It’s the same old problems for the Demons.
As rock-solid as they are defensively, their front-half game still needs a lot of work.
Melbourne sits inside the top-eight despite ranking 13th in points for, averaging 79.5 points per game.
Is that a scoring profile which will trouble teams come September, or are the Demons purely relying on defending the game?
It’s not all the fault of the forwards.
Melbourne ranks 15th in the competition for inside-50 differential — when they were once the best territory team around.
They need to get that territory game back, because they only rank 10th for forward half intercepts and sit 13th for scoring from those forward half intercepts.
It’s impossible to score freely if the ball doesn’t live there enough.
Improvements in that area would help get the scoreboard ticking over some more.
I’d also like to see Melbourne play with more aggressive ball movement and take the game on.
The one caveat to that, though, is they can’t waste the money kicks going inside-50.
PORT ADELAIDE
Ken Hinkley likes to be innovative at the selection table some weeks and test the opposition with an aerial presence, especially in front of the ball.
Sometimes that works wonders, but other times being too tall can backfire.
The Power are a territory team and have their defenders press up aggressively on the back of clearance wins.
However, there’s been times this season where at least four of Charlie Dixon, Todd Marshall, Jeremy Finlayson, Mitch Georgiades and Ollie Lord have been forward at once.
Consequently, when that tall forward line has not been able to win the ball, the footy has too quickly bounced back out and gets down the other end.
Port has conceded the 10th most points against in the competition and ranks 12th for opposition scores per inside-50.
One player they recruited to help strengthen the backline — Esava Ratugolea — spent last week playing in the SANFL and needs to rediscover his best form in the run to September to support Aliir Aliir.
As good as the midfield has been, they also need to lift in one particular area.
The Power rank 16th in the competition for post-clearance contested possession and 18th for post-clearance groundball.
When you have ball hunters in your line-up like Zak Butters, Connor Rozee, Ollie Wines and Jason Horne-Francis, that’s not good enough.
Have they got into the bad habit of rolling the dice?
WESTERN BULLDOGS
The Bulldogs are an interesting team.
Against the bottom-10 teams, they have a 6-2 record.
Against the current top-eight sides, they have gone 3-6.
Consistency has clearly been a major problem, not helped by ever-changing personnel.
Only seven Bulldogs players have featured in every game this season and Aaron Naughton (10 games), Cody Weightman (10 games) and Tom Liberatore (11 games) have all missed key chunks of the season.
As much as Rory Lobb’s move to defence has been a positive, the Bulldogs also need Liam Jones back and firing if they are to make a charge to September.
In every game where they have conceded 95 points or more this season, they have lost.
Every time they have kept the opposition to 86 points or less, they have won.
Luke Beveridge’s side showed against Carlton last week that it is capable of beating the competition’s best sides.
We just need to see performances like that strung together — starting with this week’s huge clash against Geelong.
GOLD COAST SUNS
It’s not just a poor record on the road that is letting the Suns down.
A major issue for Damien Hardwick’s side — both at home and away — has been its ability to retain inside-50 kicks.
Gold Coast ranks 18th in the competition for inside-50 kick retention percentage, which is causing it to sit 17th for scores per inside-50.
The money kick has always been important in footy and the Suns’ midfielders aren’t executing it well enough.
The best midfielders in the competition — including Nick Daicos, Errol Gulden and Jordan Dawson — all have inside-50 kick retention rates well above 50 per cent.
At the Suns, Noah Anderson and Touk Miller have gone at 36 per cent this year, while Matt Rowell has gone at 42 per cent.
The best players choose the right option going inside-50 and hit up leading forwards by executing the right kick.
The Suns aren’t getting that forward connection piece right at the moment and for them to become a legitimate finals contender, mastering this aspect of their game is essential.
COLLINGWOOD
Collingwood’s problems have been clear all year when they’ve been losing.
The reigning premiers haven’t been moving the ball as well as they were last year or executing well enough when coming out of defensive 50.
They rank 10th in the competition for defensive 50 to inside-50 percentage and 16th for defensive midfield to inside-50 percentage.
Last year they ranked sixth and first in those categories respectively.
Too often we have seen Darcy Moore take the wrong option or John Noble miss a target that he shouldn’t. Issac Quaynor and Brayden Maynard trying to bite off more than they should. These turnovers coming out of the Pies defensive half is killing the team.
But there is a solution there for Craig McRae — put Nick Daicos and Jack Crisp back to halfback.
As good as Daicos has been around the ball, the Pies need him and Crisp at halfback where they can provide great bounce and aggressive and creative ball use.
It doesn’t have to be a permanent move, but at least try it so they can rediscover their aggressive ball movement.
There are other players who can be called upon to pinch-hit onball, including forwards Jamie Elliott, Bobby Hill and Harvey Harrison to work with Jordan De Goey, Scott Pendlebury and Steele Sidebottom.
The reigning premier’s season is slipping away, so brave decisions must be made.
HAWTHORN
The big question mark about the Hawks is their ability to put winning scores on the board against the competition’s better teams.
Since posting a 0-5 start to the season, Sam Mitchell’s side has picked itself up off the canvas and has gone on a remarkable 9-3 run.
The only losses during that run have come against Sydney, Port Adelaide and Geelong.
But in those three losses, the Hawks scored 42 points, 79 points and 59 points respectively.
They need to continue to bring great pressure, because doing so will provide turnover opportunities which is where the majority of scores come from.
The Hawks rank a lowly 16th for points from turnover this season, averaging just 42 points a game from that score source.
They have some lively forwards who can hit the scoreboard, including Dylan Moore (27 goals), Mabior Chol (25 goals) and Jack Ginnivan (17 goals).
Hawthorn just has to ensure it moves the ball at speed and hits targets going forward to better punish opposition teams on turnover when the opportunities present.
MICK’S HOT TAKES
GOOD
Errol Gulden. The Sydney midfielder is All-Australian bound, but may even sit in the top-five players in the competition. I love his workrate, where he runs, how he wins the footy and what he does with it. He’s a pleasure to watch.
BAD
One-arm tackles. We’re being told that players need to leave an arm free when tackling, so that the player who is being tackled can protect themselves if they go to ground. But it’s just a matter of time before someone’s shoulder is seriously damaged by a ‘chicken wing’ tackle — and watch the narrative change when it does.
UGLY
This week’s AFL tribunal outcomes. I couldn’t swallow three-week bans for Toby Bedford and Charlie Cameron being upheld. Accidents are always going to happen in footy and that’s how I saw both of those. We are too hung up on the outcome rather than the action. The footy public’s infuriated, the players are confused and the coaches are questioning the amount of quick decisions the tacklers have to now take on. They are not robots.
Originally published as Mick McGuane: Every finals contender’s biggest concern and how they can fix them
Melbourne’s Joel Smith hit with career-ending ban over drugs
Melbourne Demons player Joel Smith has been hit with a career-ending, four-year ban for cocaine use and trafficking, with at least four of his teammates understood to be sweating on the outcome of his investigation.
AFL star slapped with career-ending ban
Melbourne Demons player Joel Smith’s career is as good as over after he was reportedly slapped with a monster ban.