Mick McGuane: Club pressure ratings entering 2025 as clubs, coaches feel the heat
The season hasn’t yet started, but some clubs and coaches are already under the pump with high expectations this year. MICK McGUANE has ranked every club 1-18 on the pressure index.
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Footy is a high-pressure business and the heat is on a number of clubs entering 2025.
AFL analyst Mick McGuane has ranked every club 1-18, from those under the most pressure to those with the least to worry about.
MICK’S CLUB PRESSURE RATINGS FOR 2025
1. GWS GIANTS
All eyes are on the Giants after a summer of talk about their lessons and leanings out of two narrow finals losses last year. This is a team that won seven or its last eight games entering September last season, before crashing out of the premiership race in straight sets. They finished top-four last year despite some inconsistency and not quite mastering a lot of facets of their game. However, another pre-season under coach Adam Kingsley should have them primed for a crack at a premiership. GWS has added Jake Stringer to the forward line and time will tell if that recruitment was a good or bad call. There’s pressure on Jesse Hogan to replicate his outstanding 2024, while the development of midfielder Finn Callaghan will be a watch after the monster money rivals were offering him.
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2. FREMANTLE
For mine, the Dockers have a good list. Yet, coach Justin Longmuir is entering his sixth season at the helm and his best result so far has been a fifth-placed finish and one finals win in 2022. There’s no excuses anymore. Fremantle has enjoyed good stability and has a strong core group with the likes of Andrew Brayshaw, Caleb Serong, Hayden Young, Luke Ryan, Sean Darcy and Alex Pearce. In front of the ball, Josh Treacy and Jye Amiss are quickly emerging, while they have recruited well in recent years by adding Luke Jackson, Shai Bolton and Jordan Clark. The Dockers only used 36 players last season, so injuries weren’t a major factor. The key might be keeping Darcy on the park this year, though. With the big ruckman in the side, Fremantle recorded eight wins and a draw from 12 matches last season. Without him, Longmuir’s men went 4-7.
3. WESTERN BULLDOGS
The Bulldogs can’t afford to play catch-up footy again this year, which is why the start to the season is critical in the final year of coach Luke Beveridge’s contract. They will start their campaign without captain Marcus Bontempelli, fellow midfielder Adam Treloar, key defender Liam Jones and key forward Jamarra Ugle-Hagan. They will be hard to replace, but there are enough other players on a strong list who can provide cover. The Bulldogs had a strong profile in all three areas of the ground last season, yet finished sixth on the ladder before a disastrous elimination final loss to Hawthorn. They started last year 2-3 and face a relatively tough beginning to 2025 with North Melbourne, Collingwood, Carlton, Fremantle and Brisbane Lions. Imagine the hysteria around Bevo if they are pipped by the Kangaroos in round 1. If they can’t perform without their skipper in the opening month, we’ll quickly be asking if they are a one-player club.
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4. ADELAIDE
I’m not tipping the Crows to play finals this year, but fans are understandably getting restless. Coach Matthew Nicks is entering his sixth season and has a winning percentage of 35.4 per cent. Not many coaches survive an extended period with a record like that, which is why Nicks is clearly the most under-pressure coach in the competition entering 2025. Injuries played a factor in a bottom-four finish last year, but the playing group also have to stand up and take some responsibility for their inconsistency of performance at times. It’s time for Riley Thilthorpe to justify the hype around him and make the forward line his own, while the additions of James Peatling and Alex Neal-Bullen over the off-season should help. Nicks will know that his side has to make some real inroads this season. Another bottom-four finish won’t be accepted.
5. PORT ADELAIDE
Will the succession plan prove a winner or a disaster? It’s a big watch as Ken Hinkley prepares to hand over the reigns to Josh Carr. Port meets Collingwood, Richmond, Essendon, St Kilda and Hawthorn in a favourable start to the season which should provide a springboard to another September berth. But the problem has long been performing when it really counts, with the Power having won just three of their past nine finals. A key focus area will be getting their contested and uncontested possession balance right, after ranking 16th for post-clearance contested possessions and 11th for loose ball gets last year. Recruit Jack Lukosius will help cover the losses of Charlie Dixon (retired) and Todd Marshall (Achilles) in the forward line, while Jeremy Finlayson could prove handy in defence. Could he be another Rory Lobb? But it’s time to convert regular season wins into September success.
6. COLLINGWOOD
The Magpies went all out over the off-season by adding Dan Houston, Tim Membrey and Harry Perryman to a list that they clearly believe is ready for a crack at a second premiership in three years. The trio have brought significant experience to Collingwood’s list in areas of the ground that it had to bolster, increasing expectations heading into 2025. Houston will bring extra class coming out of defence, Perryman improves the centre-bounce depth and the forward line already looks more dynamic with Membrey joining the returning Dan McStay and fellow target Brody Mihocek. The Magpies meet three 2024 finalists in GWS, Port Adelaide and the Western Bulldogs in the first three rounds, but look set to get those sides at a good time given injuries to key players. Get the jump there and Craig McRae’s side will set itself up nicely for its next block of games and the external pressure will subside.
7. CARLTON
It should be a no excuses, no regrets season for the Blues. They’ve clearly got the top-end talent to contend, with potential All-Australians in Patrick Cripps, Sam Walsh, Charlie Curnow, Jacob Weitering and the emerging Tom De Koning. The AFL has also given Carlton a free kick with the fixture, which includes double-up matches against both West Coast and North Melbourne. The big question is: Can Carlton find another small forward to step up and cover the loss of Matt Owies? Whether it is Jesse Motlop, Corey Durdin, Zach Williams or Lachie Fogarty, someone must master that role. Keeping Mitch McGovern fit at the other end will also be important, particularly given the season-ending injury to Nic Newman. Coach Michael Voss is always up for a challenge and doesn’t shirk expectations. But if the Blues do go backwards and miss finals this year, questions will be asked and rightfully so.
8. SYDNEY
It is all mental for the Swans? We know their physical capabilities, which saw them finish last season a game clear on top of the ladder. But will there be mental scars from another Grand Final horror show? The playing group’s ability to put last year behind them and move on will be the biggest key. Some clubs and individuals can’t recover from such wounds, but Sydney is a side with a longstanding winning culture.
There is going to be pressure on the Swans to perform and they must believe they can win a flag in 2025 and silence the critics. I don’t expect much will change under new coach Dean Cox, who will of course make some subtle shifts with his philosophies and will want to hit the ground running. Errol Gulden’s loss for the start of the season hurts, but the Swans may get Callum Mills back from injury.
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9. HAWTHORN
Can the Hawks back it up? They enjoyed a brilliant 2024, but the challenge is now to recapture that winning form amid rapidly rising expectations. After round 9 last season, Hawthorn went 14-4 and scored 100 or more points on seven occasions as they rode a huge wave of momentum. Their attack was exciting, but their defence was also incredibly strong. Bolstered by the additions of experienced key defenders Tom Barrass and Josh Battle over the off-season, many are tipping Sam Mitchell’s side to take another step forward this year. The Hawks almost pinched a semi-final against Port Adelaide last September, but with a tougher fixture in 2025 they now need to prove that they are not a one-season wonder team.
10. GOLD COAST
The Suns remain the AFL’s enigma. Since entering the competition in 2011, they are yet to record a winning season. They’ve invested heavily in coach Damien Hardwick in the hope that he will finally take them to the promised land of finals football. But based on last year’s performances, it is hard to trust them. At home, they resemble a finals team. On the road, they can look like a bottom-four outfit. Until they master the travel component of AFL footy, the Suns are a team who can’t be taken seriously and therefore the pressure is on them to improve in that area this season. Their ability to score on a consistent basis also remains a worry. If they were to lose Ben King to injury, they would be seriously in trouble.
11. MELBOURNE
Love is in the air at Demonland. After a 2024 to forget, all they’ve talked about over summer is the amazing cultural shift on the back of some home truths which were tabled, including by Christian Petracca. They say this has helped manufacture better connections within the four walls — footy’s new buzzword for teamwork. Now the time for talk is over. It’s time to act. Melbourne finished 14th last season, a far cry from its premiership high of 2021. But with Petracca back, Clayton Oliver fit and invested again and Harrison Petty returning to defence, improvement should come. If it doesn’t and things don’t go well at Adelaide either, there will no doubt be calls for the Crows to bring Simon Goodwin home.
12. ESSENDON
Most of the pressure on the Bombers is coming externally from their long-suffering supporters. Of course, internally the players and coaches will be aiming to feature in finals this year. But is that prospect real? The last time Essendon recorded more wins than losses was in 2019 when they went 12-11. They have been part of September action just once in the past five years. The bigger focus for coach Brad Scott will be ensuring his players aggressively buys into a strong team defence attitude. If they can get that right, their natural attacking flair will look after itself. The Bombers were the fourth-easiest team to score against last season, so the pressure is on them to fix that profile before we start seriously considering them to be a finals contender. It’s time to add a more ruthless and accountable edge to this playing group.
13. GEELONG
You know what you’re going to get from Chris Scott’s team, which has featured in finals in eight of the past nine seasons. That’s a reflection of great coaching, list management and leadership within the playing group. But what I’m looking for this year is a ‘pick-and-stick’ mentality. The Cats need to stop being too creative and pick players where they play their best footy. I see Sam De Koning, potentially, as one of the best key defenders in the competition, while Tom Stewart has made his name as a third-tall intercept defender. The pair spent time playing as a back-up ruck and additional midfielder last year, but I’d like to see them return to the backline and shore up the Cats’ defence. The pressure on Geelong comes in finals, but they did win a flag only three years ago.
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14. ST KILDA
There’s very little expectation on the Saints, who still don’t have the list to contend with the competition’s best teams. They finished 12th last season and it’s hard to see them climbing any higher. As rock-solid as they are defensively, they don’t hit the scoreboard enough themselves. St Kilda averaged only 76 points a game last season, ranking 15th in the competition. The Saints have been working on speed of ball movement again over summer and showed in a round 23 game against Geelong last season that they can score freely when the shackles are released. But we need to see more of that on a consistent basis and they need to be better with their ball use and decision making when the fatigue factor comes into play.
15. BRISBANE LIONS
There’s always some pressure on the reigning premier to go back-to-back, but history says that not many sides do. Five different sides have won the past five premierships and the Lions’ triumph last year was against the odds. Internally, Brisbane has great leaders like Lachie Neale and Harris Andrews, who won’t feel fulfilled and will look to reload and go again. But whether they can or not, there are recent credits in the bank. The Lions No. 1 ruckman Oscar McInerney will be hungry after missing the Grand Final through injury, while Keidean Coleman and Lincoln McCarthy return from long-term injuries. But key forwards Logan Morris and Eric Hipwood will need to step up and help fill the void left by Joe Daniher’s retirement.
16. NORTH MELBOURNE
The results haven’t come from a win-loss perspective just yet, but I still think Alastair Clarkson will be the Kangaroos’ best recruit this year. We have to be realistic about where the Roos have been and how quickly they can bounce. They have finished bottom-two on the ladder for the past five years, winning just 15 of 107 games over that period. North has been able to bring in lots of young talent, but hasn’t had the experienced leaders around them. But the additions of Luke Parker, Caleb Daniel and Jack Darling over the off-season should help take heat off some younger players, while Griffin Logue’s return from injury will be important in strengthening the defence. The Roos need to get George Wardlaw’s body right, but Harry Sheezel is a star and Colby McKercher is going to be an elite player. The nucleus of gun young players is there, but they still need to get more games into them. Therefore, it’s still a patience game for the Kangaroos.
17. WEST COAST
With a new coach at the helm, the Eagles will be given time to evolve. It appears that Andrew McQualter wants to attack the game with a go-forward approach, but the concern with that is you can be opened up more easily in defence. The loss of key defender Tom Barrass doesn’t help that, either. But McQualter will develop and evolve the game style he wants to play and by mid-season we should have some understanding of what the Eagles are trying to achieve. There’s no real pressure to perform at this stage of the transition, though.
18. RICHMOND
The Tigers won the wooden spoon last year and are favoured to go back-to-back. An exodus of senior players over the off-season including Dustin Martin, Shai Bolton, Daniel Rioli, Liam Baker and Jack Graham has left the Tigers with the league’s second-youngest and least-experienced playing list, with the focus firmly being on getting games into the kids. Some of the losses last year were non acceptable and coach Adem Yze must be firmer in his second season after appearing to take a ‘cuddle’ approach in 2024. Yze can’t afford 60-plus point beltings regularly this season, but no one is expecting too many entries in the ‘W’ column on the ladder.
Originally published as Mick McGuane: Club pressure ratings entering 2025 as clubs, coaches feel the heat
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