Mick Malthouse: What AFL must fix before it considers expansion
Mick Malthouse believes the system is broken. From weak youth talent pools, free agency making the rich richer and shallow lists, something has to change before the AFL expands.
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It’s the great football divide.
Three clear divisions among the 18 AFL clubs, already, at just round 4.
Those that will make the final eight, those that could still make the eight, and those that have no chance. There are five teams in the latter category, a high number so early in the campaign.
And the reason? The AFL talent pool is too far stretched.
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Basically, there are not enough elite-standard players available to service 18 teams, let alone 19 or 20.
Interestingly, Geelong chief executive Steven Hocking recently suggested that 36 players is more than enough for a club’s list. And yet, as the football operations manager at the AFL, I’m not aware of this ever being his recommendation.
I believe clubs can’t afford to have a rope around their neck with list top-up players who aren’t up to standard. Instead reduce the numbers and focus on player development, which will also allow for a better distribution of talent to all clubs and give the bottom teams a boost.
There’s no doubt that many lists lack depth. In some instances, there are only 15 or so players of genuine AFL quality even in their match day 22, after that it peters out significantly.
The North Melbourne reserves team lost to the Brisbane Lions reserves by 104 points last week. That’s on top of the Kangaroos’ 108-point AFL drubbing by the Lions on the Saturday night. It’s not a good look.
Free agency hasn’t worked to even out the competition. It’s purely a top-up for the better sides. Just look at Robbie Tarrant leaving North Melbourne to go to Richmond. I’m not blaming the player – it’s the system that’s at fault.
On top of that, the national draft appears to be getting shallower and shallower.
In 2000 there were 80 draft positions used. In 2021 just 65 kids were picked, so there seems to be a lack of uptake by the clubs, rather, a recycling of players as recruiting managers are left underwhelmed by the talent coming through from underage ranks.
As a nation we have produced several NBA first-round picks (most recently Josh Giddey, Ben Simmons, Andrew Bogut, Dante Exum and Thon Maker, and let’s include Patty Mills as a second-round pick) because there was early identification of these kids and a lengthy development process.
It happens in cricket, tennis, soccer and Olympic sports too. Perhaps because they are on the world stage it matters more, but the AFL can’t sit back and assume that high participation rates in junior football is going to automatically lead to an abundance of football talent at draft age.
Are we identifying players young enough to go into elite training? And not just one or two, but tens and twenties of kids with potential who could benefit from a development program that leads to an opportunity at AFL level.
We need to encourage and support kids from all walks of life, all states and territories. It is fundamental to identify potential early, as young as 12 or 13, and develop it into talent, so they can mature into draftable 18-year old’s.
At the moment so much is left up to state bodies and schools where resources and time are limited, and potential is being wasted as participation numbers decline among teenagers.
Working in radio and watching every game, I am dismayed at the lack of genuine talent and skill level. It is quite astounding that some of these players, 15 to 22 on the list, are considered elite AFL footballers.
I fear for our competition, for the expansion – and yet I want expansion. I’d love to see a Tassie team in the AFL. But I also fear that right now the standard of the overall competition is below par and at times quite horrible.
GROUP ELITE
Looking at the divide and today’s ladder, the first group consists of Brisbane, Carlton, Geelong, Melbourne and the Western Bulldogs who are Monty’s to make the eight.
The Cats, Lions and Bulldogs have been regulars in the finals in recent times.
Melbourne has played finals twice in five years under Simon Goodwin, finishing ninth in
2020 before its 2021 premiership.
The Blues have the true credentials this year though. High scoring forwards, multiple midfielders with class, and a solid backline.
GROUP HOPE
The next group includes:
> Collingwood – outstanding so far and really gelling with Craig McRae’s vision.
> Essendon – my early premiership tip. Off to a bad start but will come good when it gets its daring and run back.
> Fremantle – with a big question mark above it because of the Covid threat.
> Greater Western Sydney – like a box of chocolates, you don’t know what you’re going to get.
> Hawthorn – rallying behind its new coach.
> An ageing Richmond – fraying at the edges but with enough good players to still threaten for the eight.
> St Kilda – hard to trust week in week out.
> Sydney – who astounded everyone by making the eight last year, and give a top effort each week.
Of these eight clubs, only three will be added to the top group by season’s end.
In the last five years the Tigers have won three premierships. The Giants have played in four of the last five finals’ series including a Grand Final. The Magpies, Bombers and Swans have played finals three times. The Hawks and Saints have each made the eight once. And the Dockers haven’t played a final since 2015.
GROUP FORGET ABOUT IT
That leaves the floundering group:
> Adelaide – which has never recovered from its grand final smashing in 2017. With the departure of Don Pyke, Matthew Nicks was left with a team rebuild. Regardless of what took place internally then, the Crows have been up and down throughout the 2000s and right now appear to be a mile off the top-level pace.
> Gold Coast – the best it has done in its history, with all the handouts and priority picks, is 12th under Guy McKenna. Since 2018 it has finished 17th, 18th, 14th and 16th under Stuart Dew. Its team is much better than that right now, but that needs to be demonstrated with wins and a fight to challenge for the eight.
> North Melbourne – 17th, 17th, and 18th in the last three seasons and in its current form is looking at another wooden spoon. Its win against a Covid depleted West Coast Eagles disguised the fact that it is highly deficient in high-quality players and depth.
> Port Adelaide – under Ken Hinkley has made three preliminary finals, two of them just a kick off entering the grand final. But Port currently looks old and slow and it’s a long way back from a winless opening four rounds.
> West Coast – has a wonderful record in the last decade, just twice missing finals under Adam Simpson, and a premiership in 2018. But Covid, injuries, and Father Time has caught up with the Eagles.
Of course stranger things have happened and we can’t look into a crystal football, but the fact that 12 points and over 100 per cent separates top from bottom by round four, says a lot, and if the AFL wants to expand its competition it needs to do more to fix the league, first.
Originally published as Mick Malthouse: What AFL must fix before it considers expansion
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