Matt Turner: It’s when – not if – Ken Hinkley will be in charge of his last game for Port Adelaide in 2024

AFL clubs rarely change coaches when a team is in the finals mix – but more efforts like last Saturday could be a bridge too far for Port Adelaide’s hierarchy, writes MATT TURNER.

It looks from the outside to be a matter of when – not if – Ken Hinkley will be in charge of his last game for Port Adelaide in 2024.

After three consecutive losses, including a humiliating 79-point home defeat to Brisbane last round, the 12th-year Power mentor is again coaching for his future.

Hinkley has another season to run on a two-year extension Port powerbrokers agreed to just 10 months ago – before the club’s straight-sets finals exit – but he seems unlikely to be at the helm in 2025.

Pressure on the 57-year-old has been dialled up since the Lions defeat, which featured Power fans booing the long-serving coach.

Next is a clash with St Kilda at Marvel Stadium on Sunday. 

Port is clinging to eighth spot with an 8-6 record so may be reluctant to part ways while its season is still alive.

AFL clubs rarely change coaches when a team is in the finals mix.

That said, more performances like last Saturday’s could be a bridge too far for the club’s hierarchy.

How long will Ken Hinkley remain at the helm? Picture: Mark Brake/Getty Images

Senior assistant Josh Carr is waiting in the wings, looming as Port Adelaide’s successor beyond just a potential caretaker role.

Carr fronted the media at Alberton for the second time in six days on Monday, a curious move considering the Power would normally rotate its assistant coaches.

The midfield mentor denied he would walk straight into the top job full-time, saying “there is always a process”.

But industry chatter believes a succession plan is as good as done.

This week, some rival clubs said their assistants would avoid going through a Port coaching search because they felt Carr was next in line.

Asked on ABC in April if Carr had an understanding that he would eventually take over from Hinkley, Power chairman David Koch said “not from the board”, but the club would “rather train up from internal than outside”.

Hinkley has publicly endorsed the concept of Carr eventually replacing him as coach, telling Nine Media in February it would be “a bloody good decision”.

Carr withdrew from Richmond’s senior coaching race in August – just days before Port re-signed Hinkley.

Hinkley earnt his extension after guiding the Power to 13 consecutive wins and another finals appearance.

Port finished the minor round fourth, only to enter the finals banged up and exit in a fortnight.

Optimism about the Power’s prospects this season were boosted by the addition of four recruits from other clubs and an 8-3 start.

Those prospects have faded badly since a 36-point home loss to Carlton going into the mid-year bye.

The Power is without a victory since beating North Melbourne in Hobart on May 25.

Hinkley and his potential successor Josh Carr walk off Adelaide Oval last week. Picture: Mark Brake/Getty Images

Adding intrigue to Port’s coaching situation is that neither Koch nor club chief executive Matthew Richardson have spoken in the media this week about Saturday’s performance, the fans jeering or to back Hinkley.

In contrast, Crows chief executive Tim Silvers went on radio the next day to stand by coach Matthew Nicks in the wake of mounting pressure and fan unrest after the club’s home loss to Richmond earlier this month.

Last week Koch told FIVEaa he was looking for a really strong response against Brisbane, on a day the club would celebrate its 2004 flag heroes.

Instead, Port suffered its largest defeat in five years, conceded 12 goals in a row for the first time since 2011 – a season it finished second-bottom – and lacked effort for periods.

Fans leaving early and booing the coach would be cause for concern for a club that had tarps covering bays of seats a little over a decade ago at Football Park and had set itself for another top-four run this year.

The pressure on Hinkley is nothing new.

He has emerged through several situations like this since arriving at Alberton in late 2012.

Hinkley is a fighter who remains positive.

On Friday, he presented a calm, stoic figure at his weekly pre-game press conference.

The Power still has time to turn its season around – it will be 8-7 even if it loses to St Kilda.

GWS (6-8) and Carlton (5-8-1) occupied 14th and 15th spots on the ladder after round 15 last year then went on to reach preliminary finals.

But this Port team does not look anywhere good enough to follow a similar path to those Giants, Blues or the Power sides that have reduced the pressure before.

Hinkley and Carlton coach Michael Voss earlier this year. Picture: James Elsby/AFL Photos

Mood for change is different with Hinkley, largely because he has been in charge for more than a decade without making a grand final – the longest coach of one club to do so. 

Hinkley’s winning ratio is 59.54 per cent (156-106), which includes six major round appearances, three preliminary finals and a 2-4 finals record since 2018.

For all the criticism about Port’s inability to beat the top sides under Hinkley, it has rarely lost to ones below it, outside of the Crows.

That is what makes the Power’s fixture fascinating.

The next four games are against teams ranked outside the top eight: St Kilda (away), Western Bulldogs (home), Gold Coast (away) and Richmond (home).

With pressure intensifying and Port performing inconsistently, poor results during this period could be costly.

Given all that Hinkley has done for the club, the Power needs to be careful how and when it chooses to cut ties.

Port finishes the season with five tough matches: Carlton (away), Sydney (home), Melbourne (away), Adelaide (home) and Fremantle (away).

Hinkley will pass premiership winner Mark Williams (273) for most games as Power coach if he somehow steers his side to a grand final.

That scenario is a world away for Hinkley and Port, which will be looking no further ahead than Sunday.

Originally published as Matt Turner: It’s when – not if – Ken Hinkley will be in charge of his last game for Port Adelaide in 2024