Gary Buckenara analyses Hawthorn’s list after the 2020 season
Collingwood is interested in securing best and fairest winner Jack Gunston but should the Hawks trade him? Ex-Hawthorn recruiter Gary Buckenara on the trade deal that would get it done.
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Hawthorn’s list has fallen off the cliff and it’s time for a total rebuild with this list at least five years away from challenging for a premiership again.
Already Ben Stratton and Paul Puopolo have retired but decisions need to be made on Isaac Smith and James Frawley. They’re premiership heroes but is there still a role for them or will they be stunting the development of a young player?
The Hawks have offered Smith a contract but does he see himself as having more than two years of footy left in him? There is a role for Frawley in defence after the retirement of Stratton.
It’s time for hard decisions to be made on players with trade value, decisions like when the Hawks traded Trent Croad, Nathan Thompson, Jonathon Hay and Jade Rawlings during their last rebuild, decisions that ultimately led to winning four premierships.
Hawthorn has made poor recent list management and recruiting decisions after overrating the list with the belief it could still win a premiership, including trading first-round picks for players like Tom Mitchell and Chad Wingard (a deal that also saw Hawthorn parting with Ryan Burton and a second-round pick).
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It seems strange to raise Mitchell’s name given he’s won a Brownlow but he doesn’t hurt opposition teams like Dustin Martin, Nat Fyfe or Patrick Dangerfield. There are genuine concerns over whether Mitchell and Wingard will be part of Hawthorn’s next premiership team. This is an example of how mistakes in list management can bite a club on the bum very quickly, especially when you have an ageing list.
Trading for these players means there are few potential A and B-grade players coming through. That’s why it’s time for hard decisions to be made and sentiment to be thrown out the window.
LIST NEEDS
Hawthorn won four premierships between 2008-2015 because its prioritised recruiting elite ball users in defence and the midfield. Luke Hodge, Sam Mitchell, Brent Guerra, Stuart Dew, Grant Birchall, Matt Suckling and Bradley Hill are just a few of the names who cut teams apart with precision ball use. But looking at the current list, who’s capable of doing that? Some will say Jack Scrimshaw but he’s not a good decision maker under pressure and often turns it over. He’s OK from a free kick or mark but you need good decision makers who can execute skills under pressure. The Hawks have very few of these types across halfback and in the midfield so the delivery forward is poor and slow. No wonder the forward line has struggled.
The Hawks must reinvest in the draft, get as many top-30 draft picks as possible and go back to focusing on recruiting genuine footballers with skills and footy smarts.
TRADE TARGETS
Hawthorn’s only trade activity this year should be trading out players to get as many top-30 or 40 draft picks in the 2020 and 2021 drafts as they can to invest in the young talent they’ve recently ignored. The only problem is, which players are worth early draft picks?
UNTOUCHABLES
Jaeger O’Meara, Chad Wingard, Will Day, James Worpel, James Sicily, Mitch Lewis, Ben McEvoy, Jon Ceglar, Changkuoth Jiath, Blake Hardwick, James Cousins, Luke Breust, Tom Scully, Daniel Howe and Liam Shiels.
TRADE BAIT
Mitchell. He’s a Brownlow Medallist but why doesn’t he get any attention from opposition clubs? Because at the moment he doesn’t hurt rivals with his disposals. He’s obsessed with getting the ball but what does he do with it? He mainly puts his teammates under pressure with quick handballs that go nowhere or that are to players under the pump. That’s why opposition coaches let him run free and instead target Wingard, O’Meara and Smith because, while they might not get Mitchell’s numbers, they hurt you when they get it.
It would be a huge call to trade Mitchell but he will have suitors and if the right deal presented, such as a first rounder and another top-25 pick, the Hawks should trade him.
Tim O’Brien is a player who has potential but has never really reached great heights. He’s from South Australia and at 26, he can be part of Adelaide’s rebuild so why not see if the Crows are interested. He can also play as a back-up ruckman, which they need. A draft pick in the 30-45 range would be a good result.
Collingwood want Jack Gunston, so see what they’re are prepared to offer. If it’s a first and second-round pick then I would entertain that trade.
Geelong is interested in Breust but the Hawks won’t want to trade several experienced players. I’d be reluctant to move on both Gunston and Breust as they still have plenty to offer and class forwards are hard to find. A first and second-round pick would be required to even consider a trade.
RATING THE LIST
A-grade: Mitchell, O’Meara
B: Breust, Burgoyne, Gunston, McEvoy, Scully, Shiels, Sicily, Smith, Wingard
C: Brooksby, Ceglar, Cousins, Frawley, Frost, Hardwick, Hartley, Howe, Impey, Minchington, Nash, O’Brien, Patton, Scrimshaw
Developing (with A or B-grade potential): Day, Worpel, Lewis, Jiath
Developing: Golds, Greaves, Hanrahan, Jeka, Jones, Koschitzke, Maginness, Moore, Morris, Morrison, Pepper, Reeves, Ross, Walker
What the ratings mean:
A-grade: Elite player on any AFL list
B: Top 10-18 player on most lists
C: An 18-30 player on a list
Developing: Aged 21 or under
CRYSTAL BALL
With only 11 A and B-grade players and four young players with the potential to develop into A or B-grade players, it’s clear why Hawthorn has dropped away so dramatically. Hard decisions must be made on players but these decisions can’t all be made by Alastair Clarkson. The coach should have some say but not the only say, and Clarko can be intimidating when it comes to list/trade decisions. These decisions must be made with a long-term view, not decisions for the here and now. The list is in serious trouble and everyone, from the coach down, needs to accept that. Clarko is an outstanding coach, so we can’t underestimate his ability to get the very best out of his players but I believe there is some pain ahead.
The Hawks won’t play finals in 2021 or 2022 but if they can recruit good young talent and get further development into their current young players, finals are a possibility in 2023. Won’t be premiership contenders for at least five years.
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Originally published as Gary Buckenara analyses Hawthorn’s list after the 2020 season