Fremantle’s decision to pass on Jesse Hogan could have serious ramifications next season
FREMANTLE feels particularly aggrieved about being painted as the new Essendon of trade week but if the Dockers are unable to secure Jesse Hogan, it could have dire consequences for the club’s future.
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FREMANTLE feels particularly aggrieved about being painted as the new Essendon of trade week, a club keener to obfuscate and bluff than do common-sense deals.
The Bombers, of course, have since thrown off that reputation and are expected to do an orderly deal to secure their fourth key acquisition (Dylan Shiel) in the past two trade periods.
Yet across the competition the Dockers have been lashed for their hardline stance in keeping Lachie Neale and not throwing the kitchen sink at Jesse Hogan.
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They maintain their decision to withdraw from discussions on Hogan is not a bluff, but a simple risk-assessment.
It was no mistake Peter Bell chose to refer to “due diligence” twice in his Friday statement.
They believe paying him up to a million a year on a long-term deal past five years is too much of a risk given the navicular issue and what they perceive to be off-field concerns.
Especially when they are being urged to hand over two first-round picks for Hogan, yet depart with a contracted midfield star (Neale) for a single top-10 pick to Brisbane.
On pure numbers and consistency you can make the case Neale is worth more than pick No.5 given his importance to Fremantle and his consistency over five years.
In that time he has missed just two games, racked up 540-plus touches every season, kicked 51 goals, and won two of the past three best-and-fairests (2016, 2018) and was runner-up last year.
He is a model citizen who causes no distractions, drives the club’s culture and causes Ross Lyon not a second’s missed sleep when his head touches the pillow.
So if you want to make the case that Neale is worth more than pick No.5 - like Adam Treloar and Shiel are judged to be - it is a compelling case.
The question we are about to find out is whether Freo would accept only pick No.5 for Neale, knowing they only had to give up that same pick to get Hogan, which would in turn get May from Gold Coast for the suddenly stacked Demons?
If not, the problem is what happens if Fremantle rebuff Hogan and keep Neale for a year.
Neale is a free agent who will walk from Fremantle - albeit for a compensation pick - and will spend the year stewing given he has already told Ross Lyon, Steve Rosich and Peter Bell he won’t play for them.
And even when Rory Lobb arrives from GWS, they still won’t have solved their forward issues.
Fremantle’s leading goalkicker for the season hasn’t kicked 50 goals for the past six years.
Cam McCarthy led the tally last year with 25, Michael Walters kicked a paltry 22 this year, with no player at Fremantle kicking 40 goals in the past three years.
Their attack in the past three years (2016-18) is ranked 17th in points for (71.8) and scores inside 50m, 18th in marks inside 50m and points from turnovers and 16th in points from stoppages.
For all of Hogan’s perceived faults he has kicked 40 goals in three of the past four years, and at just 23 has time to mature into a regular match-winner.
It seems clear Melbourne has pushed Hogan harder than Fremantle has chased him this year given their ideal of securing two first-rounders, one of them to be used on Steven May.
But while the downside of Fremantle passing on Hogan is that they will never again have the chance to recruit him, the Demons just play Hogan for a year, trade him as a non-free agent then get May as a free agent next year.
Fremantle will lose Neale in 12 months and still have done little to solve their forward woes.
Aware the same media who will invariably put Lyon under the pump next year will remind them every time they fail to kick a winning score that Hogan was theirs if only they wanted him.
Originally published as Fremantle’s decision to pass on Jesse Hogan could have serious ramifications next season