Mick McGuane takes an in-depth look at the elimination final between West Coast and Essendon
Essendon is a huge outsider in tonight’s elimination final against West Coast, but some surprising weaknesses in the Eagles’ game open the door for a Bombers ambush, writes Mick McGuane.
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When it comes to knowing what it takes to win on the big stage, few have a better understanding of the AFL than Mick McGuane.
Throughout the finals, the Collingwood premiership player, All-Australian and former AFL assistant coach will be breaking down all the key match-ups, numbers and must-win battles for the Herald Sun.
He kicks things off with an in-depth look at West Coast’s elimination final against Essendon.
WEST COAST V ESSENDON
OPTUS STADIUM, THURSDAY 8.10PM
HOW THEY PLAY
West Coast likes to play a control game and that’s how they’ll want it here. At their best they’re a high-marking side and they’ll be looking to take 100 or more in the elimination final. When they’ve achieved that number this year, they’ve won nine of 10 games.
The Eagles are all about their kick-mark game. For Essendon, it’s all about counter-attack as the Bombers like to slingshot the ball from their defensive half with dare and speed through the corridor. This year we’ve see the Bombers average 32 points from defensive-half chains, which is the fourth best in the AFL.
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WEST COAST
THE KEY
We know the Eagles want to control the game through their kick-mark game. What we’ll see is a lot of selfless runners as they also want to get width on the game, as it creates free players to gather uncontested marks. It also takes away turnover opportunities for Essendon. Once they get to halfway they will trust their key forwards in Josh Kennedy, Jack Darling and Oscar Allen to pull the trigger.
THE THEME
It’s all about the GBH — the ground ball hunt. This is a facet of the game that the Eagles must master in order to win. There is no difference from last year, when the Eagles were ranked 18th for ground ball differential after the home-and-away rounds. In last year’s successful finals campaign, they were in the positive across the finals. It’s an effort-related barometer, something they didn’t have in their disappointing Round 23 loss to Hawthorn. Their mantra must be to hunt the ball.
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THE CHALLENGE
The Eagles’ challenge? Close down the corridor. They must stop Essendon’s slingshot that has served them so well this season. When you’ve got a team like Essendon, which is ranked fourth for defensive-half scoring, and West Coast, which is ranked 13th at defending an opposition defensive-half chain, it is clear for the Eagles they will need to be at their absolute best both structurally and in terms of their forward-50 pressure. They just cannot afford to allow Conor McKenna and Adam Saad to generate Essendon’s run by continually bouncing the ball out of their forward 50 time and time again without pressure being applied.
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IF I WERE WEST COAST
If Nic Naitanui is medically cleared, I would roll the dice and play him. He is too important to leave out. He complements the Eagles’ ability to score heavily from stoppages, which they currently do. It is certainly a risk, and Tom Hickey’s competitiveness has been positive, but in terms of what’s at stake, I would play him. He’s just got that X-factor and his repeat efforts at stoppages create pathways for others. He can go forward as well. There is no tomorrow for the Eagles if they lose, so it’s worth the risk for mine.
ESSENDON
THE KEY
For Essendon to win, the key has to be to win the contested ball. Since the bye, they’ve won this important count in matches just once. That’s not good enough. In a final of this magnitude, and against an opposition that isn’t great for contested ball differential, there’s a real opportunity for Essendon’s players to serve it up to the Eagles in the contested ball stakes. They have lost this measure on average 16 per game since the bye, which ranks last in the AFL. It must lift here.
THE CHALLENGE
I believe Essendon’s big challenge is to not allow West Coast’s key defenders in Shannon Hurn, Tom Barrass, Jeremy McGovern and Brad Sheppard to control the air, which we know they are so good at doing. Those Eagles players mentioned above are rated by Champion Data as either elite or above average in intercept marks this season. Essendon forwards such as Shaun McKernan and Jake Stringer must compete really strongly, and they must also have the attitude that if they can’t mark it, they must at least bring the ball to ground. This is very important as it will bring Essendon’s dynamic small forwards into the game.
THE THEME
Getting width on the game is crucial for their offensive transition to become a threat. They will want to open up the corridor as a mode of direction to bring the ball back through that part of the ground. They will need to use short 45-degree kicks complemented with overlap handballs so they can shift the Eagles defence and not allow them to get set.
IF I WERE ESSENDON …
I’d be looking to curtail Elliot Yeo’s impact around stoppages. The second layer of importance outside general play is to control Luke Shuey’s creative influence. He can’t be getting the ball 25-30 times in space without pressure. He’s too damaging with time on the ball.
MICK’S TIP — West Coast by 27
Originally published as Mick McGuane takes an in-depth look at the elimination final between West Coast and Essendon