Coaching great Mick Malthouse previews the 2020 AFL season, predicting a Grand Final repeat
Geelong claimed the minor premiership in 2019 but coaching legend Mick Malthouse says the Cats are the most vulnerable to drop out of the top eight this year.
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Let’s call it March madness.
The Marsh Community Series isn’t really for the top five or six clubs of 2019 to prove they still have it.
It’s for the bottom-10 clubs, particularly those on the cusp of the top eight, to flex their muscles.
Because we know there will be change to the final eight this year.
History tells us that is the case every season.
Few would have predicted last year that the Brisbane Lions, coming off a 15th-place finish in 2018, would surge to fifth and even sat atop the ladder after Round 22.
But that’s the beauty of the AFL. There’s always hope.
And there’s always heartache.
It feels like more questions have come out of the Marsh series than answers. But there’s nothing to indicate that Richmond and Greater Western Sydney won’t still be the clubs to beat come September.
But I have seen two clubs with recently-acquired credentials to make a move into the top eight.
Port Adelaide hasn’t gone far outside its list to engage players.
It clearly has faith that it can achieve finals with its current crop.
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Zak Butters (19), Willem Drew (21), Xavier Duursma (19) and potential star Connor Rozee (20) add youthful excitement to a well-drilled machine.
Ken Hinkley is a fantastic coach, but he has been put on notice by David Koch, and Charlie Dixon could hold the key to his coaching future.
If the 29-year-old can stay injury free and reach the heights expected of him, Hinkley may well coach Port into the finals this year.
One big in has given St Kilda the qualities to make a full-blooded assault on the eight.
A deserving second chance, he has become the prototype for the resurrection of a sacked coach.
The Saints have increased their speed, ball-getting power, toughness and flexibility with some handy additions to their list.
Richmond premiership player Dan Butler adds speed and goalkicking ability.
Ex-Docker Bradley Hill is a classy ball magnet who can deliver beautifully into a potentially star-studded forward line.
Former Port Adelaide youngster Dougal Howard is charged with the responsibility of stiffening up a tall backline.
Tough nut and former Swan Zak Jones brings pace, tenacious toughness, and ball carrying power. And Paddy Ryder has undoubted ability, but I’m not sure where the ex-Power and Bombers big man will fit into the team given the emergence of outstanding young ruckman Rowan Marshall.
St Kilda can only dream that Max King will be anywhere near the player that Nick Riewoldt was.
He will take a couple of years to mature, but he already looks like a clone of the Saints great.
Hunter Clark, Jimmy Webster and Dylan Roberton all back in the team will add run, versatility and a new dimension to the backline.
The trio played just 22 games between them last year.
St Kilda needs Jake Carlisle to stand up. He has a tendency to be lazy. There is only room in this Saints outfit for a fit and energetic Carlisle this year.
So too a fit and firing Dan Hannebery in more than a few games, and St Kilda will be mostly complete.
The Saints have had an impressive lead up with pre-season wins against Hawthorn and Collingwood without dominating either opponent.
When they were good last season they were very good, but when they were bad they were truly horrid.
The outs — Josh Bruce to the Western Bulldogs and Jack Steven to Geelong — need to be replaced.
Seb Ross, as last season’s best and fairest, needs to stand tall again.
Jack Steele had a wonderful year.
He finished third in the B&F and took some major scalps as one of the most efficient taggers in the competition, along with Giant Matt de Boer. Interestingly though, Ratten has indicated he won’t tag early in the season, which I find perplexing as the Saints will still need a way of controlling the opposition’s best midfielder. Steele is the man for the job as a natural ball-getter, even in the tagging role.
It is an exciting time for St Kilda.
If it can be more consistent for longer, it has a perfect blend of age and experience to fight Port Adelaide for the spot that will be vacated in the eight.
The team most vulnerable to losing that position is Geelong.
I can make a case for both the Cats and Essendon to miss the finals this year, but for the Bombers it is purely because of a long injury list and too many players who failed to complete a full pre-season — Patrick Ambrose, Joe Daniher, Dyson Heppell and Cale Hooker to name a few.
When Essendon gets its act together it is as dangerous as anyone, but too often we don’t see the best players out on the ground together, and that hurts the team and the game plan.
Geelong was 13 wins, three losses and two games and nearly 24 per cent clear on top of the ladder after Round 17 last year.
By the end of the home-and-away rounds it was 16-6 and level with the Brisbane Lions and Richmond. That’s cause for concern.
Full credit to the Cats for being one of the highest achieving clubs in recent years, playing in three preliminary finals in the past four seasons.
But Tim Kelly is a significant out.
I hope Cats supporters don’t expect Jack Steven to be a carbon copy of Kelly because he won’t be. Steven will bring his own game and will be immensely beneficial for Geelong.
Another major in is Josh Jenkins.
He has heaps of talent, vast experience, and is a good size, but where do you play him? And who makes way for him?
Geelong is one of the slowest teams in the league with the ball.
It is difficult to think that the Cats’ forward line — with Tom Hawkins, Esava Ratugolea and Jenkins — can provide scoring power plus boast a strong defensive mindset. They are tall marking forwards who have little impact when the ball hits the ground.
Another area for concern is the Cats’ indecision on a ruck.
Zac Smith was brought in from the Gold Coast and then returned.
Rhys Stanley was given chances and then fell out of favour during last year’s finals.
Geelong needs to settle quickly on a ruckman and stick with him.
Perhaps it needs to persevere with 204cm Darcy Fort.
One major issue for Geelong is its home ground.
When Kardinia Park (GMHBA Stadium) was revamped, when given the chance to change its shape from long and narrow to a more orthodox football ground, someone should have made it happen.
Like West Coast and Fremantle previously at Subiaco Oval, Kardinia Park is easy for the Cats to defend on and provides a huge home-ground advantage. They are virtually unbeatable there. But opposition clubs also know they don’t have to play Geelong there in finals.
The new Perth ground is reminiscent of the MCG, where it’s harder to defend against leg speed and creativity, and it helps ensure the Eagles and Dockers are prepared for finals. In this way, Geelong isn’t.
The Cats’ ageing list will also test the patience of coach Chris Scott.
We can’t dismiss their pre-season losses to Gold Coast and Essendon.
Their low scores — 7.12 (54) against the Suns and 9.7 (61) against the Dons — were telling.
Gary Ablett is almost 36 and has struggled so far this year. He kicked 34 goals last year and at times was brilliant. But if his form doesn’t pick up, can you drop Bambi?
Patrick Dangerfield, at nearly 30, is still outstanding.
Joel Selwood, almost 32 and one of my favourite players, is a warrior, but without a pre-season because of injury he’ll find it hard to get going.
Tom Hawkins, 31, was brilliant for the first two-thirds of last year before father time caught up with him. He can’t bend and get to the ball the way he used to. He will still kick goals at Kardinia Park but could struggle on the bigger grounds.
Stanley, 29, doesn’t know if he’s in or out. Harry Taylor, 33, is fantastic but isn’t getting any quicker. Zach Tuohy, 30, still has it but the cliff is getting closer.
The Cats are on the cusp, and it’s fair to say Scott believes so too, to chase Steven and Jenkins (though they didn’t cost much in compensation).
Perhaps Scott needs to back his young players more.
The fifth Beatle and Mr Reliable, Mitch Duncan, will be a huge out in the first few games of the season and I see the first four rounds — Giants (Giants Stadium), Gold Coast (GMHBA), West Coast (Perth Stadium) and Hawthorn (MCG) — being a major test for Geelong. It can tick its home games, and it may win enough away matches in the end to play finals, but will it do any damage in September?
Sydney will struggle to better last year’s eight wins and 15th position.
With no players of note added to the list from last season, there will be a heavy reliance on the Swans’ young stars to perform each and every week.
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Nick Blakey, Tom McCartin, Isaac Heeney, Oliver Florent and Callum Mills will simply have to hold up.
Lance Franklin is 33 and while he trained strongly before Christmas, he has been hampered since after a knee scrape. Sydney desperately needs him to get near peak fitness quickly.
Captain Josh Kennedy is one of the club’s remaining warriors, but even he isn’t as prominent at 31.
Sydney’s losses to the Giants (94 points) and North Melbourne (11 points) in the Marsh series highlighted more deficiencies than positives. It will be a long year for the Swans.
So many questions. We wait for the answers.
Originally published as Coaching great Mick Malthouse previews the 2020 AFL season, predicting a Grand Final repeat