AFL Draft re-ranked: Top 10 from every draft from the past decade

In the 2016 and 2017 drafts, Carlton had three top-10 picks. Looking back now, things could’ve been far different for the Blues. We re-rank every draft since 2011.

Hindsight is a wonderful thing.

One of the AFL’s toughest, most unforgiving jobs is being a talent scout charged with uncovering, rating and projecting how good a footballer will be.

News Corp Australia sports journalist Marc McGowan has looked back at the past 10 drafts and re-ranked the top 10 based on output – not potential.

Achievements, games played, consistency and team strength were among the criteria, with any player drafted, signed or pre-listed in that year being eligible.

Players picked in the mini-draft era were considered for the national draft they would have been selected from, so Jaeger O’Meara, for example, was part of the 2012 crop.

Each draft from 2011 onwards has also been graded on top-end quality and depth of talent.

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Western Bulldogs forward Jamarra Ugle-Hagan was the dux of last year’s AFL draft class. Picture: AFL Photos via Getty Images

2020

Actual top 10

1. Jamarra Ugle-Hagan

2. Riley Thilthorpe

3. Will Phillips

4. Logan McDonald

5. Braeden Campbell

6. Denver Grainger-Barras

7. Elijah Hollands

8. Nik Cox

9. Archie Perkins

10. Zach Reid

Re-ranked top 10

1. Errol Gulden (32)

2. Riley Thilthorpe (2)

3. Tom Powell (13)

4. Jake Bowey (21)

5. Archie Perkins (9)

6. Lachie Bramble (SSP)

7. Nik Cox (8)

8. Josh Treacy (rookie)

9. James Rowe (38)

10. Caleb Poulter (30)

The toughest draft to re-rank because, in reality, it’s far too early to make a judgment. It was also hard to compare the seasons of players competing in teams of differing strength and opportunity. Bowey played one-third of Perkins’ games but was a genuine contributor for Melbourne and kept out more seasoned teammates to help win a flag. There are footballers who didn’t appear on the re-rank list – such as Grainger-Barras and Campbell – who looked promising but didn’t play enough. Gulden and Thilthorpe were the standouts, while Max Holmes was the unluckiest to miss out.

How do the first-round draft picks from 2019 compare two years on? Picture: Getty Images

2019

Actual top 10

1. Matt Rowell

2. Noah Anderson

3. Luke Jackson

4. Lachie Ash

5. Dylan Stephens

6. Fischer McAsey

7. Hayden Young

8. Caleb Serong

9. Liam Henry

10. Tom Green

Re-ranked top 10

1. Luke Jackson (3)

2. Caleb Serong (8)

3. Kozzy Pickett (12)

4. Noah Anderson (2)

5. Tom Green (10)

6. Mitch Georgiades (18)

7. Trent Rivers (32)

8. Cody Weightman (15)

9. Harry Schoenberg (24)

10. Matt Rowell (1)

This draft class hasn’t had the same time to rack up the accolades as their older peers but they are already making a splash. Jackson and Serong won the past two Rising Star awards and Pickett kicked 40 goals as a small forward in just his second season. Schoenberg might have the lowest profile of this bunch but played every game in 2021 and finished strongly. Rowell slid because of injuries and not being able to match this year the blistering start to his career. He narrowly edged out Will Day, who’s also been promising but impacted by injury.

DRAFT PROFILES: TOP PROSPECTS IN EVERY POSITION

The 2017 top-10 picks: (back row from left) Lochie O'Brien, Jaidyn Stephenson, Aaron Naughton, Nick Coffield, Hunter Clark, (front row from left) Adam Cerra, Paddy Dow, Cam Rayner, Andrew Brayshaw and Luke Davies-Uniacke. Picture: Getty Images

2017

Actual top 10

1. Cam Rayner

2. Andrew Brayshaw

3. Paddy Dow

4. Luke Davies-Uniacke

5. Adam Cerra

6. Jaidyn Stephenson

7. Hunter Clark

8. Nick Coffield

9. Aaron Naughton

10. Lochie O’Brien

Re-ranked top 10

1. Tim Kelly (24)

2. Liam Ryan (26)

3. Bayley Fritsch (31)

4. Aaron Naughton (9)

5. Andrew Brayshaw (2)

6. James Worpel (45)

7. Jaidyn Stephenson (6)

8. Zac Bailey (15)

9. Brody Mihocek (rookie)

10. Adam Cerra (5)

The 2017 draft has been maligned at times, especially at the top, but has produced All-Australian teammates Kelly and Ryan and premiership forward Fritsch – all as mature-agers. Brayshaw has back-to-back top-three best-and-fairest finishes, while Naughton led the league in contested marks and was second for marks inside 50 this year. Worpel was Hawthorn’s club champion in 2019, too. There are players still to fully emerge that look great prospects long term, including Davies-Uniacke, Clark, Wil Powell, Brandon Starcevich and key defenders Sam Taylor, Tom McCartin and Noah Balta.

The top 10 from the 2016 draft (from left): Andy McGrath, Tim Taranto, Hugh McCluggage, Ben Ainsworth, Will Setterfield, Sam Petrevski-Seton, Jack Scrimshaw, Griffin Logue, Will Brodie and Jack Bowes were selected at the top of the 2016 AFL draft. Picture: Jonathan Ng

2016

Actual top 10

1. Andy McGrath

2. Tim Taranto

3. Hugh McCluggage

4. Ben Ainsworth

5. Will Setterfield

6. Sam Petrevski-Seton

7. Jack Scrimshaw

8. Griffin Logue

9. Will Brodie

10. Jack Bowes

Re-ranked top 10

1. Tom Stewart (40)

2. Hugh McCluggage (3)

3. Tim Taranto (2)

4. Luke Ryan (66)

5. Jy Simpkin (12)

6. Andy McGrath (1)

7. Sean Darcy (38)

8. Jordan Ridley (22)

9. Nick Larkey (73)

10. Oscar McInerney (rookie)

Stewart is the undeniable main man from this draft after being plucked from relative obscurity, but isn’t the only club champion or All-Australian in this class. Taranto, Simpkin, Darcy and Ridley are also best-and-fairest winners, while McCluggage has made the All-Australian squad of 40 three-years straight. Ryan was an All-Australian defender in 2020. McGrath’s consistency from the get-go earns him a spot, while Larkey and McInerney are the No.1 key forward and ruckman at their respective clubs. Jack Henry, Shai Bolton, Tim English, Harry Perryman, Jack Graham and Ollie Florent were unlucky.

DRAFT GRADES: EVERY CLUB’S RECRUITING RATED FROM 2016-2020

Sam Walsh (left) and Jack Lukosius were the No.1 and 2 picks, respectively, in the 2018 AFL draft. Picture: AFL Media/Getty Images

2018

Actual top 10

1. Sam Walsh

2. Jack Lukosius

3. Izak Rankine

4. Max King

5. Connor Rozee

6. Ben King

7. Bailey Smith

8. Tarryn Thomas

9. Chayce Jones

10. Nick Blakey

Re-ranked top 10

1. Sam Walsh (1)

2. Bailey Smith (7)

3. Ben King (6)

4. Max King (4)

5. Connor Rozee (5)

6. Callum Wilkie (rookie)

7. Zak Butters (12)

8. Tarryn Thomas (8)

9. Jack Lukosius (2)

10. James Rowbottom (25)

This re-ranking has the closest correlation with the original in the past decade. Walsh is already a bonafide star and there’s plenty else to like in this class. Smith’s off-field fame is surging but he’s also producing on-field, while the King brothers are standing up as their teams’ top marking options in attack. The odd one out here is Wilkie, who’s gone from a mature-age rookie to finishing in the top seven of St Kilda’s best-and-fairest count in each of his seasons at the club. Thomas enjoyed a breakout campaign this year in graduating to the midfield. Rowbottom barely pipped Isaac Quaynor and fellow Swans Nick Blakey and Justin McInerney to sneak into the top 10.

Carlton defender Jacob Weitering has lived up to being the No.1 pick in the 2015 AFL draft. Picture: Getty Images

2015

Actual top 10

1. Jacob Weitering

2. Josh Schache

3. Callum Mills

4. Clayton Oliver

5. Darcy Parish

6. Aaron Francis

7. Jacob Hopper

8. Callum Ah Chee

9. Sam Weideman

10. Harry McKay

Re-ranked top 10

1. Clayton Oliver (4)

2. Jacob Weitering (1)

3. Harry McKay (10)

4. Tom Papley (rookie)

5. Callum Mills (3)

6. Jacob Hopper (7)

7. Darcy Parish (5)

8. Josh Dunkley (25)

9. Sam Menegola (66)

10. Anthony McDonald-Tipungwuti (rookie)

An incredible collection of young talent. Oliver is a dual All-Australian and favoured to win a third Demons best and fairest this year, while Weitering and McKay give Carlton the best young bookends in the game. Papley finally received All-Australian honours this year, as did Parish in his breakout season. Mills and Hopper don’t have that on their resume but have been consistently excellent. Dunkley is a premiership player, a best and fairest runner-up and made an All-Australian squad of 40. The depth is summed up by Eric Hipwood missing out despite kicking 163 goals in 110 games. Charlie Curnow, Jordan Dawson, Jade Gresham and Ben McKay were also in this class.

The top 10 picks from the 2014 AFL draft: (back row from left) Jordan De Goey, Paul Ahern, Darcy Moore, Peter Wright, Caleb Marchbank, Nakia Cockatoo, Jarrod Pickett, (front row from left) Christian Petracca, Paddy McCartin and Angus Brayshaw. Picture: Stephen Harman

2014

Actual top 10

1. Paddy McCartin

2. Christian Petracca

3. Angus Brayshaw

4. Jarrod Pickett

5. Jordan De Goey

6. Caleb Marchbank

7. Paul Ahern

8. Peter Wright

9. Darcy Moore

10. Nakia Cockatoo

Re-ranked top 10

1. Christian Petracca (2)

2. Harris Andrews (61)

3. Jack Steele (24)

4. Caleb Daniel (46)

5. Jake Lever (14)

6. Isaac Heeney (18, Academy)

7. Darcy Moore (9, father-son)

8. Touk Miller (29)

9. Kane Lambert (rookie)

10. Brayden Maynard (30)

Petracca might be the AFL’s No.1 player, having put together consecutive All-Australian campaigns capped by winning the Norm Smith Medal in Melbourne’s drought-busting premiership. It takes a special footballer to relegate fellow dual All-Australians Andrews and Steele. It gets murky from there, with little separating Daniel, Lever, Heeney and Moore, who have all had great careers. Miller is the latest All-Australian from this class, while premiership Tiger Lambert and Maynard are strong performers year after year. How deep is this group? De Goey, best-and-fairest winner Jayden Short, All-Australian Bailey Dale, Ed Langdon, Adam Saad and Brayshaw didn’t make the cut.

MOCK DRAFT: HOW THE TOP 30 PICKS COULD FALL

Ollie Wines (left) with fellow 2012 Port Adelaide draftees Tom Clurey and Mason Shaw. Picture: Tait Schmaal

2012

Actual top 10

1. Lachie Whitfield

2. Jono O’Rourke

3. Lachie Plowman

4. Jimmy Toumpas

5. Jake Stringer

6. Jack Macrae

7. Ollie Wines

8. Sam Mayes

9. Nick Vlastuin

10. Joe Daniher

Re-ranked top 10

1. Jack Macrae (6)

2. Brodie Grundy (18)

3. Ollie Wines (7)

4. Lachie Whitfield (1)

5. Dane Rampe (rookie)

6. Jake Stringer (5)

7. Joe Daniher (10, father-son)

8. Jake Lloyd (rookie)

9. Lachie Hunter (49)

10. Nick Vlastuin (9)

Macrae’s third All-Australian nod and continued ball magnet ways saw him take the honours as the best player to date from this draft. That’s despite Wines winning the 2021 Brownlow Medal and Grundy arguably being the AFL’s best ruckman across the 2018-19 seasons. Whitfield’s proven a very good No.1 selection, winning two Giants best and fairests and being an All-Australian. Rampe is an All-Australian defender, while Stringer and Daniher have also earned that recognition for their match-winning exploits in attack. Dual Swans best and fairest Lloyd, Dogs club champion Hunter and premiership player Vlastuin are consistently strong contributors. Among those to just miss out were Jack Viney, Tim Membrey, Jaeger O’Meara, Zac Williams and Brad Crouch.

(from left) Josh Kelly, Tom Boyd and Cam McCarthy at Kurrawa Beach on the Gold Coast after being drafted to the Giants in 2013. Picture: Getty Images

2013

Actual top 10

1. Tom Boyd

2. Josh Kelly

3. Jack Billings

4. Marcus Bontempelli

5. Kade Kolodjashnij

6. Matt Scharenberg

7. James Aish

8. Luke McDonald

9. Christian Salem

10. Nathan Freeman

Re-ranked top 10

1. Marcus Bontempelli (4)

2. Patrick Cripps (13)

3. Zach Merrett (26)

4. Charlie Cameron (rookie)

5. Josh Kelly (2)

6. Ben Brown (47)

7. Matt Crouch (23)

8. Darcy Byrne-Jones (52)

9. Christian Salem (9)

10. James Sicily (56)

If Petracca’s not the AFL’s best player then that title belongs to Western Bulldogs captain Bontempelli. He’s a four-time All-Australian and Bulldogs club champion, along with winning a premiership and the AFLCA and AFLPA footballer of the year in separate seasons. The resumes are bulging behind him, too, with Cripps and Merrett multiple All-Australians and three-time best and fairest winners. Cameron kicked 143 goals across the past three seasons, while fellow All-Australian Kelly returned to his silky best in 2021. Sicily barely held off All-Australian Aliir Aliir for a top-10 place. Also missing out were Jesse Hogan, Dom Sheed, Jack Billings, Jarman Impey, Toby Nankervis, Rory Lobb and Karl Amon.

(from left) Dom Tyson, Jon Patton and Stephen Congilio all went to the Giants as the top three draft picks in 2011. Picture: Wayne Ludbey

2011

Actual top 10

1. Jon Patton

2. Stephen Coniglio

3. Dom Tyson

4. Will Hoskin-Elliott

5. Matt Buntine

6. Chad Wingard

7. Nick Haynes

8. Billy Longer

9. Adam Tomlinson

10. Liam Sumner

Re-ranked top 10

1. Jeremy Cameron (pre-listed)

2. Toby Greene (11)

3. Lachie Neale (66)

4. Tom Mitchell (21, father-son)

5. Elliot Yeo (30)

6. Rory Laird (rookie)

7. Chad Wingard (6)

8. Nick Haynes (7)

9. Mark Blicavs (rookie)

10. Taylor Adams (13)

This is unquestionably the best draft class in the past decade. The first seven players are all dual All-Australians, Neale and Mitchell are Brownlow medallists and Cameron won the 2019 Coleman Medal. Only Blicavs isn’t an All-Australian out of this bunch but he’s been shortlisted the past three seasons and is a two-time Geelong best and fairest. Adams had stiff competition to make this list, keeping out Adam Treloar, All-Australians Dylan Shiel and Sam Docherty and Giants captain Stephen Coniglio. Seb Ross (two), Jack Crisp, Bradley Hill, Devon Smith and Jarrod Witts also missed out despite having best and fairests to their name.

Originally published as AFL Draft re-ranked: Top 10 from every draft from the past decade