Collingwood’s massive trade gamble as old Pies load up with experienced players at expense of youth
Collingwood has the oldest list in the AFL and is again shunning the draft in favour of chasing free agents and older trade targets as its youth flounders. Are they flying too close to the sun?
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Carlton is pulling hard on the reins well before it plummets over the edge of a list cliff.
Collingwood is not afraid to charge right up to the edge and teeter on the brink like in an old-style Western movie, hopeful it pulls back in the nick of time.
These two famous rivals are both in the hunt for a hugely expensive half back in Dan Houston to further their premiership aspirations.
But while Collingwood is all in – prepared to hand over another future first-rounder for a 27-year-older – the Blues are prioritising the draft.
Only if they can find another first-rounder and also take four draft selections will they jump at Houston.
It is a fascinating case study in an era when a Dad’s Army won the 2022 flag for Geelong.
Collingwood is fully prepared to back in that strategy even when it doesn’t fulfil the club’s stated goals of finding the key forward Craig McRae wants or the key back to replace Nathan Murphy.
If Collingwood wins a flag next year with Houston and free agent Harry Perryman in its side, those Pies fans will echo the Richmond fans post-dynasty.
As in who cares what it all costs.
And yet the risk is even more apparent when you crunch the numbers for Collingwood based on Champion Data’s relative ratings.
Even before you consider the nine players who will be 30-plus on the Pies list next year, assess the performances of their 25-and-unders.
Of the club’s 14 players in that age bracket to play a game last year, only a single one was in the positive based on their expected performance compared to players of a similar age across the competition.
Of course it was Nick Daicos, who was 62 per cent above his expected return.
Ed Allan was technically the second player with a positive rating but his sample size was tiny – two games in which he admitted looked the goods.
Beau McCreery, Norm Smith Medallist Bobby Hill and Isaac Quaynor are all huge talents but all had negative ratings for 2024.
Make of that what you will given Hill still kicked 30 goals and McCreery took a step as a midfielder as well as pressure forward.
In contrast the Blues had 15 players 25-and-under who averaged 14 games this year _ with five boasting a positive relative rating in addition to Cooper Lord (only two games).
Carlton has underperformed but few in the competition have a better spread of elite talls.
Carlton has the better ruckman for the future in Tom De Koning (even if 29-year-old Darcy Cameron had a phenomenal year), the younger full back (Weitering over Moore), the better key talls (Charlie Curnow and Harry McKay).
And yet the Pies could add in two flankers in Houston and Perryman while giving up a future first-rounder while Carlton backs in the draft.
There is a salary cap component – Collingwood is coming into money, while Carlton’s list is top-heavy with big fat contracts.
But Collingwood, already the oldest list in footy by age (27.5) and average matches (128.5) will be positively geriatric next year.
They already have five players older than Carlton’s oldest player in Nic Newman.
Scott Pendlebury, Jeremy Howe, Steele Sidebottom, Mason Cox, Jamie Elliott and Brody Mihocek will be playing as 32-year olds at some stage next year.
Tom Mitchell, Will Hoskin-Elliott and Jack Crisp will join them as 30-year-olds.
For Carlton only Nic Newman and Sam Docherty played as 30-year-olds this year, Newman only 31 and Docherty playing only two AFL games.
The Blues 25-and-unders include Tom De Koning, Adam Cerra, Matt Cottrell, Sam Walsh, Brodie Kemp, Elijah Hollands, Jesse Motlop, Ollie Hollands.
Curnow is only 27, while Harry McKay and Jacob Weitering played at 26.
And yet Collingwood is still all in on Houston despite so many question marks over their under-25s.
Joe Richards is off to Port Adelaide, Nathan Kreuger, Reef McInness and Charlie Dean are in limbo, Finlay Macrae was repeatedly dropped last year and might not make it.
Harvey Harrison is recovering from an ACL tear, while Wil Parker played five games and Ned Long was handed seven chances.
It is crazy brave by Collingwood even as they prepare to welcome Mick McGuane’s son Tom as a father-son in 2026.
Carlton is ensuring its premiership window opens long into the future.
Collingwood is crazy brave.
Some would even say reckless, but you have to admire their courage to saddle up again despite the inherent risks.
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