Coleman Medal race: Analysis of the run home for every 2024 contender
Jesse Hogan has surged clear of Charlie Curnow in the race for the Coleman Medal and is three rounds from denying the Blues spearhead a place in history. Will he hold on?
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Charlie Curnow could be three weeks from etching himself into the AFL history books alongside goalkicking greats John Coleman and Gordon Coventry.
The Carlton superstar will become the seventh player in AFL/VFL history – and the first since Gary Ablett Sr in 1995 – to win three successive Coleman Medals if he can overhaul GWS spearhead Jesse Hogan in the remaining three rounds.
SCROLL DOWN FOR ANALYSIS ON EVERY CONTENDER
Curnow (56 goals) went goal-less for the first time since round 1, 2022 against Collingwood and has surrendered his lead to Hogan after he continued his hot streak against Hawthorn.
Hogan has now kicked 22 goals in his last five games, 11 more than Curnow has managed during the same period.
Becoming the Giants’ second Coleman winner would cap a stunning career revival from Hogan, who was traded to GWS for pick 54 four years ago.
“It’d be nice, but it’s certainly not what we play the game for,” Giants coach Adam Kingsley said after Hogan booted four goals against Gold Coast recently.
“It’s good to have a bit of recognition and reward, but I’d like to think that the internal rewards that he gets far outweigh anything externally that he’ll get. We don’t play for Coleman medals. We play for a premiership medal and we are continuing to build towards that.”
Ablett Sr, John Peck, Fred Fanning, Gordon Coventry, Dick Lee and Coleman are the only players since 1987 to top the league’s goalkicking in three consecutive seasons.
Eagle Jake Waterman is 10 goals adrift of Hogan, with Ben King sitting third on 49 goals.
“The expectations on Jakey have risen a lot this year, but what a player he’s become,” Eagles co-captain Liam Duggan told Fox Footy after Waterman’s four-goal haul against Gold Coast in round 21.
“All the hard work that he’s put in, especially after last season...another great game from him.”
King has had 13 scoring shots in the past three rounds but has registered a wasteful 4.9 to miss his opportunity to close the gap on Hogan and Curnow.
THE COLEMAN MEDAL RACE
JESSE HOGAN (58 goals)
REMAINING MATCHES
Brisbane Lions (defensive rank: 2)
Fremantle (defensive rank: 1)
Western Bulldogs (defensive rank: 3)
"That is INSPIRED football!"
— 7AFL (@7AFL) July 14, 2024
Jesse Hogan dances through a couple of defenders and slots a BEAUTY! 🤩#AFLTigersGiantspic.twitter.com/rdmSjrcueB
AVERAGE GOALS VS OPPONENTS
Brisbane Lions: 2.9
Fremantle: 2.3
Western Bulldogs: 2.5
PROJECTED: 8 goals
PROJECTED TALLY: 66 goals
TAB ODDS: $1.80
WE SAY: Hogan has taken over as favourite for the Coleman Medal after his five-goal haul helped GWS claim a crucial win over Hawthorn. He faces the competition’s three stringiest defences to round 22 in the last three rounds, which could open the door for one of his rivals. But Hogan is now in the box seat to complete an incredible career resurrection and join Jeremy Cameron as the Giants’ only Coleman medallists.
CHARLIE CURNOW (56 goals)
REMAINING MATCHES
Hawthorn (defensive rank: 9)
West Coast (defensive rank: 16)
St Kilda (defensive rank: 5)
Charlie Curnow is the first player to 50 goals in 2024 💪#AFLBluesNorthpic.twitter.com/BvQ3OzT4rZ
— AFL (@AFL) July 21, 2024
AVERAGE GOALS VS OPPONENTS
Hawthorn: 2
West Coast: 4.3
St Kilda: 1.4
PROJECTED: 8 goals
PROJECTED TALLY: 64 goals
TAB ODDS: $2
WE SAY: Held goal-less for the first time since the opening round of 2022 by Collingwood. The Blues allowed Curnow to be double and triple-teamed by the Pies before he suffered an ankle scare. He needs to better his career average of two goals against Hawthorn this week to put the pressure back on Hogan with two rounds to play.
BEN KING (49 goals)
REMAINING MATCHES
Essendon (defensive rank: 15)
Melbourne (defensive rank: 7)
Richmond (defensive rank: 17)
Ben King kicks his first goal of the evening!
— Fox Footy (@FOXFOOTY) June 2, 2024
📺 Watch #AFLSunsDons on ch. 504 or stream on Kayo: https://t.co/c5VwhmeFbG
âœï¸ BLOG https://t.co/es5R9gZJSs
🔢 MATCH CENTRE https://t.co/IDob6leIaRpic.twitter.com/7KZxgwPXrK
AVERAGE GOALS VS OPPONENTS
Essendon:2.8
Melbourne: 1
Richmond: 2.8
PROJECTED: 7 goals
PROJECTED TALLY: 56 goals
WE SAY: Still has a chance — albeit a remote one. Jye Amiss and Josh Treacy combined for seven goals against Essendon on Sunday and King will be hoping to have similar success against a backline missing Jordan Ridley. He’ll face Melbourne at a great time with Steven May no guarantee to play. The Demons have conceded at least 85 points a game in the past three weeks. He’s going to need to kick 6+ in the last round against Richmond to make a last-ditch tilt.
TAB ODDS: $81
JAKE WATERMAN (48 goals)
REMAINING MATCHES
North Melbourne (defensive rank: 18)
Carlton (defensive rank: 14)
Geelong (defensive rank: 12)
Jake Waterman selling a bit of candy ðŸ¬#AFLDonsEaglespic.twitter.com/QSFICSKKCN
— AFL (@AFL) June 23, 2024
AVERAGE GOALS VS OPPONENTS
North Melbourne: 1.3
Carlton: 0.8
St Kilda: 0.5
PROJECTED: 3 goals
PROJECTED TALLY: 51 goals
TAB ODDS: $101
WE SAY: Had he not missed three matches, the 26-year-old would be a serious contender to be West Coast’s second Coleman medallist this century after Josh Kennedy (2015-2016). Waterman has 48.17 for the year and rarely wastes an opportunity. He’ll get much closer to Hogan and McKay than his history against the next three opponents suggests.
HARRY MCKAY (45 goals)
Hawthorn (defensive rank: 9)
West Coast (defensive rank: 16)
St Kilda (defensive rank: 5)
HARRY MCKAY CLUTCH! BLUES IN FRONT. ONE MINUTE LEFT. 😮
— Fox Footy (@FOXFOOTY) March 8, 2024
📺 Watch #AFLLionsBlues on ch. 504 or stream on Kayo: https://t.co/c5VwhmeFbG
âœï¸ BLOG https://t.co/fCcw9LNFs8
🔢 MATCH CENTRE https://t.co/4IRR4ZK1I2pic.twitter.com/s1BKozmEgE
AVERAGE GOALS VS OPPONENTS
Hawthorn: 1.3
West Coast: 2.4
St Kilda: 1.4
PROJECTED: 6 goals
PROJECTED TALLY: 51 goals
WE SAY: The only chance McKay has now is to kick 5+ goals against Hawthorn, West Coast and St Kilda. Since the start of 2021, he has bagged five goals in a game five times in 78 matches.
TAB ODDS: N/A
JOSH TREACY (45 goals)
REMAINING MATCHES
Geelong (defensive rank: 12)
GWS Giants (defensive rank: 8)
Port Adelaide (defensive rank: 6)
Gunbarrel straight from Josh Treacy - he's 34.9 from set shots this year!#AFLFreoDeespic.twitter.com/6MpcSf28cl
— 7AFL (@7AFL) July 21, 2024
AVERAGE GOALS VS OPPONENTS
Geelong: 0.3
GWS Giants: 0
Port Adelaide: 1
PROJECTED: 2 goals
PROJECTED TALLY: 47 goals
TAB ODDS: N/A
WE SAY: The Dockers remain hopeful Treacy will face Geelong this week after going down with a knee issue against Essendon. With tough match-ups in the next three rounds, he will need to defy the odds to get close to Curnow and Hogan.
JEREMY CAMERON (45 goals)
REMAINING MATCHES
Fremantle (defensive rank: 1)
St Kilda (defensive rank: 5)
West Coast (defensive rank: 16)
Jeremy Cameron 🎯
— 7AFL (@7AFL) July 12, 2024
Handy snap to kick his third!#AFLPiesCatspic.twitter.com/TZbE5Xzn7G
AVERAGE GOALS VS OPPONENTS
Fremantle: 2
St Kilda: 2.4
West Coast: 1.7
PROJECTED: 7 goals
PROJECTED TALLY: 52 goals
TAB ODDS: $251
WE SAY: This week will tell us whether Cameron is any chance of getting close to the leaders. He looked in ominous form with six majors against Adelaide and gets Fremantle at a time where captain Alex Pearce is sidelined. He’s 13 behind so wouldn’t want to rely on kicking huge hauls against both St Kilda and West Coast — especially on the off chance Geelong starts managing its stars.
NICK LARKEY (44 goals)
REMAINING MATCHES
West Coast (defensive rank: 16)
Western Bulldogs (defensive rank: 3)
Hawthorn (defensive rank: 9)
How's the Leg Driveâ„¢ï¸ from LDU to set Nick Larkey up? 🚀#Kangaspic.twitter.com/E0wl1rdy9u
— North Melbourne FC (@NMFCOfficial) July 21, 2024
AVERAGE GOALS VS OPPONENTS
West Coast: 3.4
Western Bulldogs: 1.8
Hawthorn: 1.5
PROJECTED: 8
PROJECTED TALLY: 52 goals
TAB ODDS: N/A
WE SAY: Five goals against Richmond was a good start, but surely he’s left it too late? Tom Barrass has been ruled out by West Coast this week, which should help.
JOE DANIHER (43 goals)
REMAINING MATCHES
GWS Giants (defensive rank: 8)
Collingwood (defensive rank: 13)
Essendon (defensive rank: 15)
Joe Daniher is having some kind of start! Three goals in the first quarter! 😮#AFLLionsSwanspic.twitter.com/dX9gzKmAz2
— AFL (@AFL) July 21, 2024
AVERAGE GOALS VS OPPONENTS
GWS Giants: 1.3
Collingwood: 2.2
Essendon: 2.8
PROJECTED: 7 goals
PROJECTED TALLY: 50 goals
TAB ODDS: N/A
WE SAY: Too far back now. Probably has to contend with Sam Taylor this week and Darcy Moore the week after.
Originally published as Coleman Medal race: Analysis of the run home for every 2024 contender
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