Change is coming at Melbourne but Simon Goodwin’s job is safe — for now
There is a mood for change at Melbourne after five losses in a row. Just how far will that extend? Jon Ralph breaks it down here.
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Melbourne’s incoming chief executive Paul Guerra has told coach Simon Goodwin in recent meetings he will back the premiership coach for next season ahead of his own September 8 start date.
But Melbourne faces massive decisions on its football department and list profile ahead of a critical month for Goodwin to shore up support across the club given another five-match losing streak.
Melbourne has 13 players about to be 30 years or older by round 1 next season but none of the recent successes of Collingwood, which shares a similar list profile.
Goodwin looks on track to record another bottom six finish given the club’s mid-forward connection issues and diabolical kicking for goal.
The Demons have played improved football in recent weeks highlighted by a fighting loss to Adelaide but are at 5-10 and in 14th position on the ladder.
Guerra finishes up at the Victorian Chamber of Commerce and Industry in the first week of September, while the club’s 2025 president Steve Smith arrives back from a European holiday in early August.
Guerra and current president Brad Green have had regular phone discussions and coffee meetings as they plot a course for improved performances.
The club will quickly have to decide whether to double down on Goodwin with one more crack at finals with the existing list or pivot with a list overhaul that prioritises youth.
In Guerra’s public statements and personal discussions with Goodwin he has said the 2021 premiership coach will see out his contract to 2026.
He is contracted on a deal that would require a full million dollar payout if he was sacked.
But there is a mood for change across the board at Melbourne that could extend to the coach if the winless streak continues through the home-and-away season.
The club had believed it had stabilised its position with five wins in six weeks in the middle of the season but Goodwin must cash in with four winnable games against North Melbourne (17th), Carlton, St Kilda (15th) and West Coast (18th).
The Demons believe the decision to trade out a 2025 first-rounder for Xavier Lindsay has already been justified by his silky form as last year’s No. 11 pick.
But as it becomes apparent the Demons do not have a list capable of winning a flag major change is afoot as Melbourne considers how to regenerate its list.
The Demons have a strong senior core, an elite list of young draftees then a gap of quality players between 24-28 apart from 24-year-old Kysaiah Pickett.
His retention on a fresh seven-year extension to 2034 will give the club a bigger risk appetite to consider trades for experienced players.
The club’s next flag window would appear to lie with the youngsters but even then Caleb Windsor and Jacob Van Rooyen have regularly played VFL and the club’s No. 15 draft pick Matthew Jefferson has battled for AFL impact.
The club’s players who will be 30 or older next year are Jake Melksham, Max Gawn, Tom Campbell, May, Viney, Lever, Tom McDonald, Shane McAdam, Christian Salem, Jack Billings, Petracca, Ed Langdon and Marty Hore.
McDonald, Hore, Campbell and Billings are uncontracted.
Melbourne believes Christian Petracca is content at the club and will not shop him around, with the Norm Smith Medallist privately and publicly stating that his future is at Melbourne.
But rivals might ask the question of Petracca given he has the most trade currency at the Demons.
And the club is likely to be open to exploring options for Clayton Oliver, contracted to 2030 on a deal that at one stage hits $1.7m.
It would require him to take a pay cut and the Demons to pay a vast chunk of his salary the next five seasons so a deal would be problematic.
Whether the Demons could secure quality picks for any of its other plus 30s is an open question with Jake Lever, Jack Viney, Bayley Fritsch and Steven May all stalwarts but with some trade currency.
Originally published as Change is coming at Melbourne but Simon Goodwin’s job is safe — for now