Brownlow Medal betting guide: Who will win each club’s vote count?
THE Brownlow Medal isn’t just about the players. It is also one of the biggest betting events of the year. With the first votes just hours away, find out where the smart money is going.
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THE Brownlow Medal isn’t just about the players.
It is also one of the biggest betting events of the year.
But where is the smart money going ahead of Monday night’s count?
VOTE GETTERS: WHO WILL POLL THE MOST AT YOUR CLUB?
MUST WATCH: WILL GAFF POLL IN PUNCH GAME?
ADAM COONEY: HOW TO SURVIVE THE BROWNLOW
BROWNLOW: LIVE COVERAGE OF BROWNLOW RED CARPET
Herald Sun resident smart punter Jamie Tate is here to help. Check out his ultimate Brownlow Medal betting guide for all 18 clubs.
ADELAIDE
HERALD SUN: Laird 14; Gibbs 11; M. Crouch 7; Lynch 6; Walker 5; Greenwood 4; McGovern, Jenkins 3.
CHAMPION DATA: Laird 15; M. Crouch 11; Gibbs 8; Atkins 7; Sloane 6; Jenkins 5; Lynch 3.
TAB CLUB ODDS: $1.18 Laird; $4.50 M. Crouch; $11 Gibbs; $51 Seedsman; $101 Sloane, Walker.
THE TIP: Rory Laird has started to catch the umpires’ eyes in the past two years (11 votes in 2016; nine last year). He took his ball-winning to another level this year, averaging 32.2 disposals across 20 matches. He had 34 or more disposals in eight games of which five were Crows wins. Matt Crouch is the smoky. He only played 18 games, but three delivered at least 40 disposals. Laird wins, but this could be closer than the odds suggest.
BRISBANE LIONS
HERALD SUN: D. Beams 21; Zorko 7; Martin 6; McCluggage 5; Andrews 3.
CHAMPION DATA: D. Beams 15; Zorko 9; Martin 7; Hipwood 3.
TAB CLUB ODDS: (without D. Beams): $1.45 Zorko; $3.75 Martin; $8 McCluggage; $15 Andrews.
THE TIP: Dayne Beams is a proven vote-getter with totals of 19 votes (2012), 16 (2014) and 17 (2017). His numbers this year are similar to last season. He polled 10 votes from four Lions wins in 2017 (the team won five) and ranged from 28-40 disposals in each of his side’s five victories this year. He wins the Lions’ count. Dayne Zorko earned 14 votes last year, but his disposal and goal tallies did not reach the same heights this season. Still, Zorko should keep out Stefan Martin who has polled just one three-vote game in 136 matches before this year.
CARLTON
HERALD SUN: Cripps 25; C. Curnow 7; Simpson 5; Murphy 2.
CHAMPION DATA: Cripps 12; Simpson 5; Murphy 3; Kreuzer, E. Curnow 2;
TAB CLUB ODDS: (without Cripps): $1.30 Simpson; $4.50 C. Curnow; $9 E. Curnow; $26 Murphy.
THE TIP: Patrick Cripps is a strong chance to poll three votes in each of Carlton’s two wins. That makes the task of finding the winner of Carlton’s polling, sans Cripps, something of a lottery. Kade Simpson’s numbers in 2018 are just as good as last year when he snagged eight votes. He kicks the ball twice as much as he handballs, which helps catch the umpires’ attention. Charlie Curnow has never polled a Brownlow vote, but before this year he had never kicked three goals in a game, which he did five times. He might get a single or two, but Simpson wins … just.
COLLINGWOOD
HERALD SUN: Grundy 27; De Goey 12; Sidebottom 10; Pendlebury 9; Phillips 8; Adams 7; Treloar 5.
CHAMPION DATA: Grundy 17; Sidebottom, Pendlebury 14; Treloar, Adams 8; De Goey 7; Thomas, Phillips 3.
TAB CLUB ODDS: $1.45 Grundy; $3.75 Sidebottom; $7 Pendlebury; $15 De Goey; $51 Adams; $101 Treloar, Phillips.
THE TIP: The umpires’ judgment of Brodie Grundy, one of the game’s leading ruckmen, will be fascinating. Grundy’s Brownlow best is just seven votes in 2016 and it might be worth keeping him safe this year. The bloke the umps love is “Pendles”. Scott Pendlebury has polled 13 votes or more in each of the past nine seasons. Last year it was 15 votes to lead the Magpies’ count as he polled in six of his seven 30-plus disposal games. In 2018, he had nine 30-plus disposals matches. Pendlebury in an upset here.
ESSENDON
HERALD SUN: Heppell, Z. Merrett 16; Smith 5; Bellchambers 4; Hooker, Zaharakis, Stringer, Fantasia, Langford 3.
CHAMPION DATA: Heppell 19; Z. Merrett 16; Zaharakis, Saad 7; Fantasia 5; Myers 4.
TAB CLUB ODDS: $1.38 Heppell; $3.25 Z. Merrett; $9 Smith; $34 Hurley; $67 Fantasia; $101 Zaharakis.
THE TIP: Dyson Heppell has a sequence of 10 (2013), 14, 10 and 14 Brownlow votes in the past four years. His numbers are similar to his 14-vote yield last year. Heppell had more kicks in 2018 and booted 10 goals (11 last year). His hot patch is in Rounds 15-19 when he has four games of 31 disposals or more. Zach Merrett polled a career-high 19 votes in 2016 but only 15 last year in what many saw as a better season. This year his numbers for kicks, disposals and goals have all dropped. Heppell has him covered.
FREMANTLE
HERALD SUN: Fyfe 19; Neale 14; Walters 7; Mundy, Langdon 5; Cox 3.
CHAMPION DATA: Fyfe 14; Neale 11; Mundy 7; Blakely 6; Walters, Ryan 4.
TAB CLUB ODDS: $1.10 Fyfe; $6 Neale; $51 Walters; $101 Mundy.
THE TIP: Expect Nat Fyfe and Lachie Neale to hog the show. Fyfe played just 15 games and in only five of the Dockers’ eight victories, but his performances in wins were typically huge. Fyfe averaged 35.2 disposals per game in those five triumphs and kicked at least one goal in each. Neale played every match and was a model of high-level consistency to post 28-34 disposals in every win. Fyfe’s three-vote ability gets him the nod here, but this will be a lot closer than the odds suggest. Neale is worth a nibble at $6.
GEELONG
HERALD SUN: J. Selwood 15; Dangerfield, Hawkins 12; Kelly 11; Ablett 10; Duncan 6; Stewart 5; Parfitt 4; Menegola 3.
CHAMPION DATA: Dangerfield 23; Ablett 16; J. Selwood 13; Kelly 10; Hawkins, Menegola 9; Duncan 7; Parfitt 3.
TAB CLUB ODDS: $1.50 Dangerfield; $4 Ablett; $6 J. Selwood; $11 Kelly; $34 Duncan; $101 Menegola, Stewart.
THE TIP: Patrick Dangerfield is one of the Brownlow’s darlings. Totals of 33 last year (runner-up), 35 in 2016 (winner) and at least 21 votes in each of the four previous counts confirm his vote-getting power. But his numbers are slightly down this year compared to 2017 — 13 games of 30-plus disposals and seven of three goals or more last year compared to six and one this season. Joel Selwood, an amazingly consistent vote-winner for the past 10 years, and newbie Tim Kelly could pull off an upset. Dangerfield to win, but $1.50 is too short.
GOLD COAST
HERALD SUN: Lynch, Bowes, Miller, Lyons, May, Weller 3; Swallow, Fiorini, Harbrow 2.
CHAMPION DATA: Young 4; Fiorini, May, Lyons, Lynch, Witts 3; Swallow 2.
TAB CLUB ODDS: $2.75 Young; $5 Swallow; $7 Lyons, Miller; $7.50 Lynch; $8 Witts; $9 Fiorini; $34 Harbrow.
THE TIP: Let’s get out the dartboard. The Suns won just four games and were thumped in plenty. A water polo judge would have been better placed than an umpire to give votes in the Round 1 win against North Melbourne in Cairns. Surely Tom Lynch gets the three votes for his eight goals that sunk Carlton in Round 2. Touk Miller secured maximum votes from both coaches when the Suns beat the Lions in Round 5, while Aaron Young was strong in the defeat of Sydney and was also prominent against the Roos. It’s a toss-up and any outlay in this market is surely a guess. No bet.
GWS GIANTS
HERALD SUN: Whitfield 17; Ward 11; Kelly 10; Coniglio 9; Cameron, Shiel 5; Deledio, Haynes, Shaw 3.
CHAMPION DATA: Coniglio 17; Ward 15; Kelly 13; Whitfield 8; Cameron 6; Shiel 4; Deledio 3.
TAB CLUB ODDS: $1.95 Coniglio; $3.75 Kelly, Whifield; $7 Ward; $101 Cameron, Shiel.
THE TIP: Stephen Coniglio has had a season at least the equal of 2016 when he polled 17 votes. His stats are very similar except this year he booted 21 goals compared to 11 two years ago. Josh Kelly polled 21 to lead the Giants’ voting last year, but managed just 15 games this season. Lachie Whitfield looms as the danger. A brilliant, breakout year, he kicks the ball beautifully, but five votes in 2017 is his best. Coniglio for me.
HAWTHORN
HERALD SUN: Mitchell 26; Sicily 12; Breust 11; O’Meara 10; Gunston 8; Shiels 6; Smith 5; Burgoyne, McEvoy 4; Roughead 3.
CHAMPION DATA: Mitchell 29; O’Meara, Shiels, Breust 8; Gunston 7; Sicily 6; Burgoyne, Smith 4; McEvoy, Worpel 3.
TAB CLUB ODDS: (without Mitchell): $2.25 Breust; $2.75 O’Meara; $6 Sicily; $9 Gunston; $13 Shiels; $26 Smith.
THE TIP: Tom Mitchell polled 25 votes last year and has been better again in 2018. The umpires don’t know Luke Breust — just 16 votes in his stellar career with a best of five from a 53-goal season in 2014. In a contest that favours midfielders, Jaeger O’Meara stands out here. Sixteen goals from midfield in his best season yet has him well placed to lead the Hawks’ market without Mitchell.
MELBOURNE
HERALD SUN: Gawn 26; Oliver 12; Brayshaw 11; Hogan 10; Harmes 9; T. McDonald 6; Viney, Petracca 5; Melksham 3.
CHAMPION DATA: Oliver 19; Gawn 18; Hogan, Jones 11; T. McDonald 6; Brayshaw 5; Harmes 4; Viney 3.
TAB CLUB ODDS: $1.35 Gawn; $3 Oliver; $26 Brayshaw; $51 Hogan; $101 T. McDonald.
THE TIP: A career-best season for Max Gawn. Surely he earns more votes than his high of 16 in 2016. But Clayton Oliver will come at him hard. Oliver polled 12 votes last year and this season posted six games of 34 or more disposals and lifted his goals from four to 11. Oliver at $3 is the value.
NORTH MELBOURNE
HERALD SUN: Higgins 15; Cunnington 11; Brown 10; Ziebell 6; Tarrant, Dumont 4; Wood, Anderson, Waite, Thompson, Ahern, Daw, Goldstein 3.
CHAMPION DATA: Higgins 12; Brown 11; Cunnington 9; Goldstein, Waite 7; Ziebell 5; Thompson, Ahern 3.
TAB CLUB ODDS: $1.15 Higgins; $5 Cunnington; $13 Brown; $51 Waite, Ziebell; $101 Goldstein.
THE TIP: It’s Shaun Higgins v Ben Brown here as Ben Cunnington doesn’t poll votes for some unknown reason. Higgins polled nine votes last year (his highest was 11 in 2009) and was strong again this season. Brown led North’s voting last year with 14 after seven hauls of four goals or more. He bettered that with 10 such bags this year. He’s outstanding value at $13. Rounds 2-6, when he booted 6 goals, 4, 5, 4 and 4, will be telling.
PORT ADELAIDE
HERALD SUN: R. Gray 9; Polec 8; Wines, Westhoff 7; Wingard 5; Rockliff, Dixon 4; Boak, Motlop 3.
CHAMPION DATA: Wines 13; Polec 9; R. Gray 7; Boak, Wingard 6; Rockliff, Dixon 5; Ebert, Westhoff 4.
TAB CLUB ODDS: $1.70 R. Gray; $2.40 Wines; $15 Westhoff; $21 Polec; $26 Wingard.
THE TIP: Ollie Wines announced himself as a vote-getter last season when he upset Robbie Gray, 18 votes to 12. Unfortunately for Power fans, neither was as good this year. Gray had a haul of six goals and two bags of four in 2018, but both fours came in losses which will hurt his chances. Wines to lead with Jared Polec worth a dabble after his strongest year.
RICHMOND
HERALD SUN: Martin 23; Edwards 10; Cotchin, Caddy 9; Riewoldt 8; Lambert 7; Rance, Prestia 3.
CHAMPION DATA: Martin 28; Cotchin 13; Riewoldt 9; Caddy 7; Lambert, Rance 6; Edwards 5; Prestia, Nankervis 4.
TAB CLUB ODDS: $1.05 Martin; $9 Cotchin; $13 Lambert; $21 Riewoldt.
THE TIP: Dustin Martin wins his club count comfortably and could collect his second successive Brownlow. While he won’t reach the heights of the 36 votes he earned last year, he polled 25 in 2016 and could be around that mark again. Martin’s disposal numbers are down compared to 2016 — 684 to 535 — but he kicked more goals this season, 30 compared to nine in 2016.
ST KILDA
HERALD SUN: Steven 12; Ross, Billings, Gresham 4; Membrey 3.
CHAMPION DATA: Steven 9; Ross 7; Billings 4; Gresham, Armitage 3.
TAB CLUB ODDS: $1.12 Steven; $5.50 Ross; $26 Gresham; $51 Billings, Steele.
THE TIP: Seb Ross was St Kilda’s favourite last year and held off Jack Steven, 14 votes to 11. The tables are turned this season. Steven’s stats are similar to 2016 when he polled 16 votes. His goalkicking — 13 goals to Ross’s three — gives him a decisive edge. Steven wins.
SYDNEY
HERALD SUN: Heeney 15; Kennedy 12; Parker, Franklin 11; Lloyd 7; Sinclair 5; Mills, Ronke, Florent 3.
CHAMPION DATA: Kennedy 16; Franklin 14; Parker 13; Heeney 10; Sinclair, Lloyd 5; Ronke 4.
TAB CLUB ODDS: $2.75 Franklin; $3 Kennedy; $5 Heeney; $7 Parker; $11 Lloyd; $15 Sinclair.
THE TIP: Luke Parker is great value at $7 to cause an upset. Parker polled 26 votes in 2016 and 16 last season, and while Lance Franklin and Josh Kennedy have great Brownlow records, Parker can win. His numbers this year — 24 goals and 585 disposals — are similar to 2016, 21 goals and 617 disposals.
WEST COAST
HERALD SUN: Yeo 15; Gaff 13; Darling 11; Redden, Shuey 10; McGovern 6; Hurn 5; Sheed 4; Barrass, Kennedy 3.
CHAMPION DATA: Gaff 22; Yeo 13; Redden 11; Darling 8; Shuey 7; Kennedy 4; Hurn, Cripps 3.
TAB CLUB ODDS: $1.60 Yeo; $2.25 Gaff; $15 Darling; $34 Hurn; $51 Shuey; $101 McGovern.
THE TIP: Andrew Gaff is a proven vote-getter with a best of 21 in 2016. This year he had 12 games of 30 disposals or more. It should be enough to keep him ahead of Elliot Yeo, who had a superb season but has a career-high of just five votes in 2015. He snagged only four votes last year when an All-Australian. Gaff just.
WESTERN BULLDOGS
HERALD SUN: Macrae 21; Bontempelli 11; Hunter 6; Dahlhaus, Johannisen 3.
CHAMPION DATA: Macrae 18; Bontempelli 13; Hunter 7; Johannisen 3; McLean 2.
TAB CLUB ODDS: $1.05 Macrae; $8 Bontempelli; $21 Hunter; $101 Johannisen. (Without Macrae): $1.22 Bontempelli; $4 Hunter.
THE TIP: Jack Macrae has a best of 11 votes in 2015, but surely he receives a lot more love from the umps this year. His numbers were ridiculous. Eight of his 19 games delivered 34 disposals or more. That should be enough to keep him ahead of Marcus Bontempelli.
THE FORMULA
The Herald Sun Player of the Year award was decided on 3-2-1 votes from each game.
Champion Data used its player rankings to determine its 3-2-1 Brownlow votes, also taking into account the winning team and a player’s voting history.
TATE’S BETTING STRATEGY
Ben Brown ($13 to lead at North Melbourne) is the standout among the best bets.
Others worth a dabble are Scott Pendlebury ($7), Jaeger O’Meara ($2.75), Clayton Oliver ($3) and Andrew Gaff ($2.25).
If you like multis, maybe some or all of Rory Laird ($1.18), Dyson Heppell ($1.38), Jack Macrae ($1.05), Dustin Martin ($1.05), Stephen Coniglio ($1.95) and Jack Steven ($1.12).
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Originally published as Brownlow Medal betting guide: Who will win each club’s vote count?