Brownlow Medal 2024: Every club’s best chance and smokey
It might not be footy season just yet, but it’s never too early to wonder who’ll be holding the AFL’s greatest individual honour at the end of the season. These are every club’s best chances to claim Charlie.
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The footy season is just around the corner, but it’s never too early to start thinking about who could be holding the game’s highest individual honour come the end of the year.
Nick Daicos looked to be all the rage until Lachie Neale swooped at the end of 2023, but who could be the best bet from your club this season?
Check out our picks for each club’s best chance and biggest smokey.
Adelaide
BEST CHANCE: JORDAN DAWSON (2023 VOTES: 20)
SMOKEY: TAYLOR WALKER (2023 VOTES: 16)
The Crows captain polled strongly after his move to the midfield and this should continue in 2024 with the skipper integral to Matthew Nicks’ side. Rory Laird got the same amount of votes as him in 2023, and Matt Crouch racks up the ball in the midfield, but make no mistake Dawson is the main man for the Crows. Walker had a career-best season in 2023 with some big bags of goals against West Coast and Port Adelaide getting him plenty of votes. Who knows if he can keep this going in 2024, but if he can then he again could be rewarded.
Brisbane
BEST CHANCE: LACHIE NEALE (2023 VOTES: 31)
SMOKEY: JOSH DUNKLEY (2023 VOTES: 4)
An easy choice for who is the best chance at the Lions. While he wasn’t one of the red-hot favourites Neale showed that he is a vote-getting machine as he claimed his second Brownlow. Can he make history and join Haydn Bunton Sr, Dick Reynolds, Bob Skilton and Ian Stewart as three-time winners? Last year he didn’t have too much competition at the Lions and Will Ashcroft, who got 10 votes, is due back in the middle of the season. Dunkley only got the four votes in his first season in Brisbane but has polled well for the Bulldogs in the past.
Carlton
BEST CHANCE: SAM WALSH (2023 VOTES: 5)
SMOKEY: CHARLIE CURNOW (2023 VOTES: 17)
Injuries held Walsh last year and he only polled five votes from 15 home-and-away matches. But he is fit, snagged 30 votes in the 2021 count and if he plays at the level he showed in a phenomenal finals series, he is a serious contender. Skipper Patrick Cripps is a past winner and will poll well if Carlton wins plenty of games but isn’t relied upon at the same level as in the past. Curnow surged to 17 votes last year in a 78-goal regular season. What does he poll if he nudges 90 goals? It’s certainly possible.
Collingwood
BEST CHANCE: NICK DAICOS (2023 VOTES: 28)
SMOKEY: JORDAN DE GOEY (2023 VOTES: 8)
There is little value in Daicos at the moment – he is a runaway leader with TAB at $5 to win the medal this year, well ahead of next-placed Sam Walsh and Marcus Bontempelli (both $11). Let’s be honest, he probably would have won it last year if not for his late injury and there is little reason why he won’t be better in 2024. Chris Judd in 2004 is the only player to win a Brownlow this century in their third season. The biggest question might be how high Daicos’ tally can climb. De Goey may seem like too much of a star to be a smokey, but he only polled in four games last year and has never won more than 12 votes in a season.
Essendon
BEST CHANCE: ZACH MERRETT (2023 VOTES: 17)
SMOKEY: NIC MARTIN (2023 VOTES: 10)
The Bombers skipper had arguably his best season in his first year in charge. He’ll lead the way again, and with a stronger list Essendon is expected to push into the finals picture. Darcy Parish will be another one to watch, having polled 15 votes in 2023, however the SSP pick up from 2022 Nic Martin could shock the footy world in 2024. The winger has been moved to half back to be Essendon’s primary rebounder, and after polling 10 votes in 2023 could be a chance to really attract some attention.
Fremantle
BEST CHANCE: CALEB SERONG (2023 VOTES: 24)
SMOKEY: LUKE JACKSON (2023 VOTES: 6)
It was a breakout year for Serong in 2023 as he established himself as a premier midfielder in the competition and this was reflected in the voting. Andrew Brayshaw has polled well in the past so could take votes away from Serong but the young gun looks to set to again be the Dockers’ best chance. Ruckmen and key forwards aren’t necessarily rewarded when it comes to Brownlow Medal voting but they call Jackson a unicorn for a reason and if he explodes the way the Dockers think he will, and even become a big-bodied midfielder, then more votes could go his way.
Geelong
BEST CHANCE: TOM STEWART (2023 VOTES: 6)
SMOKEY: JEREMY CAMERON (2023 VOTES: 13)
He did not poll that well last year, but a reported move to the midfield in 2024 would put Tom Stewart under the noses of the umpires. The superstar defender’s role would be primarily attending centre bounces and then floating back to play an intercepting role: two of the best roles for vote getters. Jeremy Cameron was Geelong’s leading vote getter last year so is hardly a smokey, but the big key forward is a proven game winner and could poll well again if he stays fit. Multiple injuries impacted his 2023 campaign, with the Cats eventually putting him on ice for the year.
Gold Coast
BEST CHANCE: NOAH ANDERSON (2023 VOTES: 22)
SMOKEY: TOUK MILLER (2023 VOTES: 3)
Noah Anderson’s sublime 2023 season was rewarded with an impressive Brownlow tally, and he’ll go to another level in just his fifth year on the Suns’ list. The midfielder was easily the Suns’ most important player and will be hopeful he can elevate his work around the stoppages again. Miller finished third in the Brownlow count in 2022 but had a much quieter night last season. Under Damien Hardwick, he has the X-factor to break the game open and lead the Suns’ charge to a maiden finals campaign.
Greater Western Sydney
BEST CHANCE: TOM GREEN (2023 VOTES: 16)
SMOKEY: JOSH KELLY (2023 VOTES: 8)
Tom Green finished a sensational 2023 as the competition’s best contested ball-winner and is determined to reach those same heights. He won’t fly under the radar this year and has the potential to take the Giants’ midfield to the next level. Josh Kelly also showed some of his best form last season and at 28, there’s no doubt he’s entering the prime of his career. Had some enormous performances in the finals and will look to hit that benchmark for the entire year.
Hawthorn
BEST CHANCE: JAI NEWCOMBE (2023 VOTES: 18)
SMOKEY: JAMES SICILY (2023 VOTES: 12)
Will Day’s foot injury may take one rising contender off the board for the Hawks. Newcombe will step in as the main man from round 1 for Sam Mitchell’s side and after he leapt from 11 votes in 2022 to 18 last year, he is a name to watch. Sicily was Hawthorn’s second-best poller last year behind Newcombe and the Hawks will do even more to free up the elite ball user in 2024. If he can stay away from the match review officer, Sicily could be a rare backman pushing 20 votes.
Melbourne
BEST CHANCE: CHRISTIAN PETRACCA (2023 VOTES: 26)
SMOKEY: MAX GAWN (2023 VOTES: 7)
Is time starting to slip past Petracca to win a ‘Charlie’? The young brigade of Nick Daicos, Zak Butters and Errol Gulden all out-polled the star Demon last year despite his superb season. With Clayton Oliver’s status unknown, Petracca will probably have to do even more than usual this year. Skipper Gawn only snagged seven votes last year – his lowest since 2017 – but that was after he split his ruck duties with Brodie Grundy. Now the six-time All-Australian is going to have to play huge ruck minutes, given he has virtually no backup. Keep an eye on Jack Viney as well if Oliver is absent, after he blew away his previous best by securing 24 votes last year.
North Melbourne
BEST CHANCE: LUKE DAVIES-UNIAKE (2023 VOTES: 13)
SMOKEY: HARRY SHEEZEL (2023 VOTES: 3)
If North Melbourne can improve its winning percentage in Alistair Clarkson’s second year, and first full season, at the helm, Luke Davies-Uniake would be a major beneficiary of it. The star midfielder exploded at the start of the season before a hamstring injury caused him to miss a chunk of games, but the 24 year old is flying in the pre-season. Harry Sheezel only polled three votes in his stellar debut campaign, however he likely has umpires remembering who he is now, and with a touted move into the centre square he is likely to spend the 2024 season under their noses. With his career so far mirroring Collingwood’s Nick Daicos, could fans see Sheezel leap into Brownlow contention in year two?
Port Adelaide
BEST CHANCE: ZAK BUTTERS (2023 BROWNLOW VOTES: 27)
SMOKEY: JASON HORNE-FRANCIS (2023 VOTES: 16)
Captain Connor Rozee is going to be a big chance to get votes but Butters was sensational in 2023 and looks to be on track to continue this in 2024. With his tough-as-nails approach and ability to do the extraordinary it is not hard to see why Butters gets votes and now he is fully a midfielder he could build on his equal fourth place in 2024. A serious watch here could be Horne-Francis, who surprisingly received 16 votes in his first season at the Power. It raised eyebrows given there were some games where Horne-Francis got votes in which many believed he shouldn’t but it shows that the umpires are well and truly aware of the former No. 1 draft pick and he is only going to get better for the Power.
Richmond
BEST CHANCE: TIM TARANTO (2023 VOTES: 19)
SMOKEY: DUSTIN MARTIN (2023 VOTES: 8)
It seems absurd to suggest a former winner is a smokey for the award, however Dustin Martin polled just eight votes in 2023 and seemingly was not as required in the midfield at Richmond. However the superstar has dominated match simulation work and is playing almost full-time in the midfield, so he is definitely in the mix if he can stay fit and keep the role, such is his ability to win games off his own boot. Tim Taranto is Richmond’s best bet though, having polled 19 votes in his first year at the club and only getting better as an inside midfielder.
St Kilda
BEST CHANCE: JACK SINCLAIR (2023 VOTES: 21)
SMOKEY: MATTAES PHILLIPOU (2023 VOTES: 1)
A clear career-best year from Sinclair, who rotated off the half back flank and through the midfield for St Kilda. He is likely to retain the same role in the second year of Ross Lyon’s second stint in charge. Draft wonder Mattaes Phillipou picked up a single vote in his first season at AFL level, and with the former 10th overall pick heading into 2024 noticeably fitter and training in the midfield, expectations are sky high for the youngster. He finished third in the club’s summer time trial and, after telling Adrian Dodoro on draft night the Bombers would regret passing on the youngster, he is set for a big season.
Sydney Swans
BEST CHANCE: ERROL GULDEN (2023 BROWNLOW VOTES: 27)
SMOKEY: NICK BLAKEY (2023 VOTES: 5)
Errol Gulden’s late-season charge up the Brownlow ladder was one of the stories of the count as the 21-year-old announced himself as one of the AFL’s elite players in 2023. He’s set to go to the next level again this year and his fellow midfielder Chad Warner will likely be pretty close behind. Nick Blakey also can break a game open and could transform into a matchwinner for the Swans in 2024 and pick up more than his five votes last season.
West Coast Eagles
BEST CHANCE: TIM KELLY (2023 VOTES: 11)
SMOKEY: ELLIOT YEO (2023 VOTES: 0)
Kelly has been sidelined for several weeks after a pre-season hamstring but looks perfectly placed to find his best form again in the Eagles’ midfield. In a disappointing year, he still averaged 28 disposals and will benefit from a team filled with more experience 12 months on. Yeo has impressed early in the Eagles’ pre-season preparations. Several injury-hampered seasons look to hopefully be in the past, and now he can bring his aggression into the middle in a youthful West Coast side. His performances could be the barometer for the side’s improvement in 2024.
Western Bulldogs
BEST CHANCE: MARCUS BONTEMPELLI (2023 VOTES: 29)
SMOKEY: TIM ENGLISH (2023 VOTES: 11)
Eventually, ‘the Bont’ just has to win the medal doesn’t he? The Rolls Royce fell two votes short last year and has now polled more than 20 in four separate counts. He generally doesn’t miss many games through injury and is a proven poller, so this might be his year. English had polled 14 total votes before last year, when he jagged 11. Now an established star and hitting a contract year, he will be front-of-mind. Keep watch on Jamarra Ugle-Hagan if he takes a step forward.
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Originally published as Brownlow Medal 2024: Every club’s best chance and smokey
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