AFL trade period state of play: Which of the big deals will get done?
The trade period is ready to heat up. Which deals can be locked in, are still up for grabs and won’t happen? Check out the latest on 35 big names.
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Joe Daniher wants to be a Swan, five players have asked for moves to St Kilda and Tom Papley and Jack Martin are still waiting to learn if they will join Carlton.
With three days left in the trade period, plenty of clubs are going to be busy trying to complete deals to strengthen their list and draft position.
But which of the mooted trades will get done?
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Joe Daniher
We know you have heard this before. But Essendon genuinely seems to want to keep Joe Daniher, even if they are offered picks No.5 and No.9. Who knows if that position changes by 7pm Wednesday. But the Dons believe just as free agency has liberated player movement, it would allow Daniher to come back to the fold after an aborted trade. Sydney might have to find an established player for a deal to work. Daniher wants out with a year left on his contract, but the Bombers are driving a hard bargain. They have asked for Nick Blakey and Isaac Heeney, who Sydney has made it clear are going nowhere. Essendon players have urged the club to stand firm.
VERDICT: Don’t Count On It
Brad Hill
Hill made his intentions clear early, asking to return to Victoria with St Kilda. The Saints are juggling five deals, but the Freo wingman is their top priority. The Dockers asked for a bounty in return before St Kilda sent its first pick in this year’s draft (No. 6) to GWS in a trade for picks 12 and 18. Remains to be seen how it gets done, but it should — unless Geelong strikes.
VERDICT: Up for grabs
Tom Papley
If Joe Daniher stays, so does Tom Papley. Despite all the talk about the Daniher and Papley trades being independent, Sydney’s view is that Papley isn’t leaving if it can’t get Daniher. As some list managers believe anyway, Papley is more important to Sydney’s structure than making them top-heavy with 201cm tall Daniher alongside Lance Franklin, Sam Reid, Tom McCartin and 195cm Nick Blakey. Pick nine is seemingly on the table, but the Swans are unlikely to part with their leading goalkicker without a replacement arriving in the Harbour City.
VERDICT: Don’t count on it
Jack Martin
Will get to Carlton — How is the question if the Papley deal doesn’t go down and Carlton can’t split pick nine. The fallback plan could involve the Blues and Suns swapping their first and second-rounders next year. It would hand the Suns three first-rounders next year. Carlton has been hoping to send its future second-round pick to Gold Coast for Martin, but the Suns want a first-rounder. Martin still seems likely to be a Blue by the end of the trade period.
VERDICT: Lock it in
Jack Steven
Looming as one of the trickier deals of the trade period. The Cats and Saints have been poles apart publicly in how they value Steven, a four-time St Kilda best and fairest. Geelong has five of the first 37 picks in the draft including 36 and 37, but the Cats have stated they don’t want to trade those selections. Their next pick isn’t until 93. Given the pick will end up in the 40s with academy/father son picks, surely it’s about right for Steven? Saints to pay some of his cash. If Cats end up giving 37 they want something back.
VERDICT: Up for grabs
Dougal Howard
The Port Adelaide swingman has requested a move to St Kilda, but the Power has told him to be prepared to stay. Port said as recently as Friday the most likely outcome was Howard remaining at the club in 2020. The Power want a first-rounder. Would he play forward at the Saints because his best work is very much as a defender? One proposed trade is St Kilda’s 12 and 18 for Howard and Paddy Ryder. Then the 10 helps the Brad Hill deal get done.
VERDICT: Up for grabs
Josh Bruce
The Bulldogs are offering pick 32, which is probably a bit light given they are offering four years at big money. A higher pick would help get Zak Jones done but the Dogs have only 13 and 32. Can they use one of their later picks — 45, 51, 53 — to trade into a pick into the 20s? The Saints said on the opening day of the trade period pick 32 wouldn’t be enough. As mentioned, five players have nominated the Saints as their preferred home and they want to get the deals done. Will that force their hand?
VERDICT: Up For Grabs
Alex Keath
The Dogs want to keep pick 13 and will need to keep 32 for Josh Bruce. So, with picks 45, 51 and 53, surely they can trade them down for a pick suitable for Adelaide interceptor Keath? If they are so desperate for him, they can’t lowball Adelaide now, given their four-year commitment. Deal has been complicated by surgery he requires on the injury which kept him out for much of the second half of 2019. The Crows have been confident a deal will get done but it’s still unclear how.
VERDICT: Don’t count on it
Jon Patton
Giants want more than the fourth-rounder they got for Tom Scully, given he made some kind of recovery to play 21 games after suggestions he was never getting back on an AFL field again. As recently as 2017 Patton kicked 45 goals. Who would say he can’t do that under Clarko’s care? The Hawks have long been expected to land the injury-plagued key forward. Patton’s salary will be a key factor as the Giants look to offload him before locking in long-term deals for Jeremy Cameron, Lachie Whitfield and Zac Williams.
VERDICT: Lock it in
Hugh Greenwood
Will get to the Gold Coast, but Adelaide wants the Suns’ pick 20 and that’s a bit rich given they were far from desperate to keep him. His best is brilliant — 24 possessions, 13 tackles, eight clearances against West Coast in Round 10. Greenwood could be an inspired selection by the Suns. The threat of Greenwood walking to the pre-season draft should be enough to get a deal to get done.
VERDICT: Lock it in
Josh Jenkins
His management believes a late offer will come. Surely one of Essendon, Melbourne, Geelong or St Kilda need his goal power. But as of yet there is nothing doing. Which is staggering for a player with reasonable pressure good for 40 goals a year.
VERDICT: Don’t count on it
Brad Crouch
He ain’t leaving. Even if the Suns launch a late bid with high picks he is determined to stay.
VERDICT: Lock it in
Eddie Betts
This should happen in the next 48 hours, with Betts signing on a one-year deal financially supplemented by Adelaide. Will go for a late pick or even a minor pick shuffle. Could be inspired if Blues can’t get Papley.
VERDICT: Lock it in
Zak Jones
St Kilda-bound but the Swans want a pick in the 20s or 30s. Those who know say St Kilda have a plan to nail all their recruits, so he’s at Moorabbin next year. Can the 32 the Saints get for Josh Bruce go to the Swans for Jones? If they get it done, he’s everything the Saints need - he has a bit of mongrel, he hits targets, he gives valuable midfield depth.
VERDICT: Up for grabs
Lewis Taylor
Sydney are keen but it would be for a late pick or a pick shuffle. Brained them in the NEAFL but do they still need him as much if they retain Tom Papley? Good enough to be playing AFL.
VERDICT: Up for grabs
Tom Cutler
Essendon at the front of the queue. Should play there next year. Could walk down Napier Street without Dons fans asking for a selfie but in 2018 before this year’s injury issues averaged 20 possessions, 436 metres gained as a long-kicking wingman.
VERDICT: Up for grabs
Darcy Cameron
Brodie Grundy isn’t going anywhere this off-season despite speculation, but even so the Pies believe Cameron can be back-up ruck and be trialled as a key forward. Pies will give up a late pick. Have 56, 69, 74.
VERDICT: Lock it in
Matt Scharenberg
Why wouldn’t a club like North Melbourne needing to replace Scott Thompson look for Scharenberg as defensive depth/cover. Could be forced out but few real suitors yet/
VERDICT: Up for grabs
Blake Acres
St Kilda mentioned him to Freo as part of the Brad Hill deal but they weren’t interested and he is keen to stay.
VERDICT: Don’t count on it
Mason Cox
Adamant he is staying and will hit a trigger clause soon that extends his deal to 2021. On good coin - around $500K - so needs to fire, with the Pies cap pressure potentially seeing someone spill out by Wednesday.
VERDICT: Hail mary
Dan Butler
Wants to get to St Kilda. Richmond won’t keep him. That trade shouldn’t present any problems. Only averaged 1.4 goals in the VFL this year but five tackles and has always had elite pressure. Smart trade with real upside for the Saints.
VERDICT: Lock it in
Paddy Ryder
Gets to the Saints with a minimum of fuss, either with a late pick or as part of a more complicated trade with Dougal Howard. Still a very nice package - 15 touches a game this year, nearly a goal a game, and above average hitouts to advantage (18.6 per cent).
VERDICT: Lock it in
Isaac Smith
Staying put. No real offers and he’s happy to stay. Should help form a powerful midfield with Tom Mitchell back. Hawks don’t seem to have a Clarko-esque left-field bombshell coming.
VERDICT: Lock it in
Levi Casboult
Fifth in the best-and-fairest and won’t get a contract extension past 2020 but few other suitors. Surely someone has a nibble given his versatility. Only need to offer a two-year deal.
VERDICT: Up for grabs
Andrew Phillips
Highly rated back-up considering overtures from Essendon. They believe he will be a Bomber next year. Has a one-year deal at the Blues but might get two at the Dons.
VERDICT: Up for grabs
Marc Pittonet
Carlton is keen to get him as Andrew Phillips considers Essendon’s overtures. Not sure where the ruck merry-go-round stops by Wednesday.
VERDICT: Up for grabs
Callum Ah Chee
Gold Coast asking for pick 21 from Brisbane, who aren’t coming at that price. Has huge talent as a former No. 8 pick but too inconsistent so far.
VERDICT: Lock it in
Sam Jacobs
Will go for a late pick to preserve GWS compensation. The only question is whether he and Shane Mumford can play as twin rucks at GWS or whether it’s survival of the fittest.
VERDICT: Lock it in
Aiden Bonar
Could turn into a NEAFL regular if he can’t get out to a club who rates his inside midfield work at GWS. Surely Essendon should appeal but they don’t have many list spots so haven’t come at him yet. GWS would want a top-30 pick.
VERDICT: Up for grabs
Jayden Laverde
Found his niche as a forward this year but 11.13 (40 per cent accuracy) ruined much of his good work. Very little interest in him so far but three days to find a suitor.
VERDICT: Up for grabs
Riley Knight
Sydney have gone a bit cold, Adelaide hasn’t yet offered a deal for the versatile Crow, who played 15 games this year.
VERDICT: Up for grabs
Sam Menegola
Thrown up as a possibility should the Dockers trade Brad Hill to Geelong. Could the Dockers be keen for a reunion anyway, after he left following a couple of frustrating years under Ross Lyon.
VERDICT: Up for grabs
Zac Smith
Heading home to the Gold Coast anyway so set to be used as a back-up to Jarrod Witts.
VERDICT: Lock it in
Kamdyn McIntosh
Seems likely to stay at the Tigers with no interest so far. But seems exactly what Freo want - a local prospect with elite running power who has premiership experience.
VERDICT: Up for grabs
Jack Newnes
Been lowballed by St Kilda on the financial component of a two-year deal. First free agency period over but can still be got for nothing. Amazing to think this bloke can’t get a look in anywhere.
VERDICT: Up for grabs
Originally published as AFL trade period state of play: Which of the big deals will get done?