AFL only cautiously optimistic about a full crowd of 100,000 for Anzac Day clash
Another state has ticked off full crowds. But how close is Victoria to doing the same? With all eyes on Anzac Day, the clock is ticking.
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The AFL is only cautiously optimistic about being allowed to fill the MCG crowd for its Anzac Day clash despite another state announcing capacity crowds on Friday.
WA premier Mark McGowan has given the green light for 100 per cent capacity (60,000) at Perth Stadium after a continued run of zero community COVID-19 transmissions.
New community standards announced by various states also allowed 100 per cent capacity at some venues of up to 1000, including sports venues, theatres, concert halls, cinemas and places of worship.
But the AFL would still need the Victorian state government to make a ruling on 100 per cent crowds ahead of Anzac Day and the increasingly popular Anzac Day Eve game between Melbourne and Richmond.
Victoria is boasting seven weeks without community transmission in the state in the same week that hotel quarantine is again starting after the latest mishap and a lengthy review of the system.
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But the league is not yet confident the state government will join the NSW, Queensland and WA state governments in increasing the capacity of Melbourne venues in time for Round 6.
The Victorian state government has always preached caution, only lifting 50 per cent capacities from Round 1 to 75 per cent from Round 2 onwards.
The recent outbreak in Brisbane that required a three-day lockdown is also seen to have set back the AFL’s aspirations by some weeks.
With stricter rules and health protocols around hotel quarantine the hope is that Victoria can prevent another outbreak or even individual cases from spreading into the community.
But the uncertainty means the league is hopeful rather than confident it will be at 100 per cent capacity for the annual Essendon-Collingwood clash.
In 2019 the clash drew 92,241 while the previous night’s Richmond-Melbourne clash pulled in 72,704 spectators.
In 2018 Anzac Day drew 91,440 fans while the Richmond-Melbourne clash attracted 77,071, with the 2017 Anzac Eve clash drawing a record 85,657 fans.
The league does not have games in coming weeks which would likely require more than 75 per cent of fans, with St Kilda hosting Richmond at Marvel Stadium in Round 5 and Hawthorn hosting Melbourne at the MCG in the same round.
But the ability of home clubs Melbourne and Collingwood to sell large number reserved seats to people other than paid-up members for those massive Round 6 clashes will depend on 100 per cent capacity.
FIXTURE CHANGE AFL MUST MAKE TO PROTECT ITS FUTURE
In the AFL’s battle of attendance versus ratings it was bums on seats that always wins out.
Last year, for the first time, we realised the AFL only survived on the extraordinary TV riches of its broadcast deals.
An AFL House administration that had always pushed the mantra of maximising attendances jumped through an extraordinary series of hoops to keep the game alive.
Why? Because its $400 million-a-year TV deal depended upon it.
On Thursday, the league reverted to tradition, plus attendance considerations, when it dropped Thursday night footy for the foreseeable future, promising as many as five more games in this slot later in the year.
It cited the difficulty in scheduling teams off five-day breaks, and flagging attendances, if it played that fixture each week.
SEE THE ROUND 7 & 8 FIXURE BELOW
Yet by every available broadcast metric, Thursday night footy is the only growth market that will allow the league to increase its broadcast rights past the 2024 expiry date.
The AFL needs to find a way to schedule Thursday nights every single round — and as soon as possible.
The future is playing every game in a separate timeslot, not overlapping games that halve TV audiences.
The future is selling a 22-game Thursday-night package to a bidder that might be Fox Footy, or Channel 7, or Channel 9.
Or a streaming service such as Amazon.
In the US these past weeks, Amazon shelled out $1 billion a season for the next decade for 15 Thursday night NFL games.
AFL players, with Amazon cameramen embedded in their club for last year’s Making Their Mark documentary, were amazed at the no-expenses-spared philosophy.
That sure isn’t a refrain anyone from the Australian media companies, slashing staff and profits, have heard this past decade.
And yet the numbers back up what most of us realise — that Thursday night footy has quickly become a fixture that complements the weekend’s contests.
It is now the No.1 rating timeslot for both Seven and Fox Footy.
Seven’s first three games this year rated a peak of 885,000, 695,000 and 697,000 nationally, with an average of 759,000 nationally and 566,000 metro.
Anyone who follows respected TV writer Colin Vickery and looks at some of the dire numbers for non-MAFS free-to-air shows this year would realise live sport is one of the few TV products guaranteed to sell.
The league must carve out new slots and different opportunities to expand the broadcast pool rather than just stick its hand out.
AFL head of broadcasting and scheduling Marcus King told the Herald Sun the league believed Thursdays were better in moderation.
“We are trying to find the right balance here,” King said.
“We had five Thursdays to start the year and we think it helps build momentum early. And then we revert to a traditional round structure for a period of time but then we go back to Thursdays around the byes.
“I know we do get questions around why we don’t play Thursdays every week. We are trying to find the right balance between optimising our broadcast versus trying to get the best attendance figure.
“We find that if we play a certain number of Thursdays we can get the balance right. But if we have Thursdays every week it starts to have an impact on attendance, especially for fans and members in regional areas. We will keep assessing it and trying to get the balance right each year.
“There will be a block of four or possibly five Thursdays later in the year.”
The AFL players did tick off the introduction of one five-day break per team from 2019 onwards, but it cannot be scheduled as part of double travel, or out of Perth.
A 19th team out of Tasmania might not create a 10th game each week but it would create 11 more home-and-away games which could make Thursday footy each week a certainty.
For now, the league - with fresh broadcast deals in place until 2024 — can pick and choose.
Yet, in a sport where TV is now king — if it hasn’t always been — it is only a matter of time until Thursday footy is the norm instead of the exception.
Fixture reveal: Who has been handed marquee timeslots?
The AFL has pledged to share around its marquee Thursday and Friday night slots under its 2021 floating fixture despite handing Richmond two prime clashes in its next fixture release.
And the league says it is hopeful it can continue shifting games away from COVID-affected states rather than postponing rounds in this year’s pandemic-affected schedule.
The league released its Rounds 7-8 fixture and plans to drip-feed out rounds in two and three-week blocks given the continue threat of COVID.
But the league has not continued its popular Thursday night fixtures past Round 5 for the foreseeable future despite strong ratings and fan support.
AFL head of broadcasting and scheduling Marcus King told the Herald Sun on Thursday there could be as many as five Thursday night games later in the season around the bye period.
The Tigers will host the Western Bulldogs on the Friday of Round 7 at the MCG, then take on Geelong as the home club on Friday May 7 at the MCG in Round 8.
In the first five weeks alone the Tigers will have played three Thursday or Friday night contests and the Anzac Day eve clash against Melbourne.
North Melbourne‘s poor start to the season has seen it slotted into off-Broadway slots in Rounds 7 and 8.
The Roos will host Melbourne in Hobart in the Sunday 1.10pm slot of Round 7 and then play Collingwood in a 4.35pm Saturday timeslot in Round 8.
North Melbourne would seem long odds to feature in any marquee contests but King said the benefit of a floating fixture was it allowed a broader spread of teams to be fixtured in marquee slots.
In essence, teams can win their way back into the big slots including clubs like Carlton and Essendon which started off with winless fortnights but play an attractive brand of football.
“Traditionally those Thursday and Friday night slots have been reserved for teams performing well. One of the benefits of the floating fixture is we can optimise that a little bit more but that said, with the competitive balance of the league at the moment we can have a really good spread of teams in those slots.
“In round 7 and 8 Richmond is playing on both Friday nights but with those two games (Richmond-Bulldogs, Richmond-Geelong) it was hard not to schedule those games on Friday night.
“But we will assess it as we go and rather than making decisions four months in advance there might be teams performing really well later on who get the benefit of those slots.”
The league is hopeful it will not need to condense the fixture even if it is forced into late changes through isolated COVID outbreaks.
“It’s beyond our control and we will continue to take the advice of governments but what we have experienced in the first part of this year is short sharp lockdowns which then requires us to adjust as we did with the Brisbane-Collingwood game. But hopefully the adjustments will be on the smaller end of the scale, nothing like last year.”
The league has fixtures a pre-finals bye and only a shock escalation in COVID numbers that might push back a round would see the league need to call on that date for football.
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Originally published as AFL only cautiously optimistic about a full crowd of 100,000 for Anzac Day clash
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