AFL Finals 2023: Mick McGuane previews Carlton v Sydney elimination final
Is Carlton really ready to come from the clouds and make a premiership charge from outside the top four, or will Sydney spoil the party on Friday night? Mick McGuane has the answers.
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Sydney scored a 26-point win when it last met Carlton at the SCG in round 11.
But the Blues have improved since then and these two in-form sides have both won six of their past seven matches entering finals.
Who will win this do-or-die clash?
AFL analyst Mick McGuane has taken a close look at both teams to try and find a winner.
CARLTON
HOW THEY PLAY
The Blues are a brutal stoppage side.
Like coach Michael Voss in his playing days at the Brisbane Lions, Carlton thrives on playing a tough, contested brand of football.
Since round 15, the Blues have ranked first in the competition for contested possession differential, first for ground ball gets and first for points from clearances.
Over those past nine matches, 50 per cent of Carlton’s scores have come from clearances, at an average of 47.6 points a game.
The Blues are also a strong side from a defensive standpoint, with manic pressure being part of their DNA.
Over the past six weeks they have rated as the No.1 team in the competition without the footy.
THE KEY
Break the dam wall.
The Swans have been the second-worst clearance team this season and have therefore relied on absorbing high numbers of opposition inside-50s and getting their turnover game going from the back half.
By contrast, the Blues have been the second-best clearance team over the past 10 weeks and could just break Sydney with the high numbers of inside-50s they will get from winning more than their fair share of clearances.
However, winning contested possessions post-clearance when the ball hits the ground will also become a critical factor in this game for Carlton, along with how well the likes of Charlie Curnow, Harry McKay and Jack Martin can get a hold of their opponents in the air and generate scoreboard pressure.
THE THEME
Dominate the front half.
Carlton’s forwards must stand up on two fronts – by hitting the scoreboard and applying manic pressure to lock the ball in.
After scoring over 100 points in four of its six games between rounds 14 and 20, Carlton has averaged just 74.3 points a game across its past four matches since.
Against a very good rebounding team in Sydney, the pressure from the small forwards, led by Matt Owies and Jack Martin, must also be top-notch.
The Swans’ rebounding defenders like Nick Blakey, Jake Lloyd and Harry Cunningham have to be put under immediate heat when they win the ball back.
THE CHALLENGE
Improve ball security.
Quality ball use and decision making look to have deserted the Blues over their past four games, which has contributed to a drop-off in scoring.
Carlton’s ball security has resembled a bottom-eight team rather than a top-eight team, and Sydney is a side that applies great pressure and punishes its opponents on turnover.
On the flip side, the Blues haven’t been able to hurt teams on turnover in their past four games, ranking 18th in the competition over that period for scores from turnovers.
That’s a big worry – particularly if their stoppage game deserts them on Friday night.
IF I WERE THE BLUES
My first message would be to get the game on our terms and challenge the Swans with our strength – stoppage dominance from centre bounce.
The ruckmen need to work with onballers Patrick Cripps, Sam Walsh, George Hewett and Adam Cerra to make sure they get a centre square advantage from the start.
I’d also be imploring my midfielders to keep a close eye on Errol Gulden spreading out of stoppage.
You don’t want Gulden to get into space with his breakaway pace and damaging left foot.
If Tom Papley starts at centre bounce and has the licence to spit forward when he decides to, he will also test the concentration and communication of the Carlton onball group.
I’d be urging Walsh or Cerra to be aware of Papley at all times so he doesn’t float forward unmanned and become a midfield goalkicker.
SYDNEY
HOW THEY PLAY
Pressure underpins performance for the Swans.
They are highly regarded for their pressure and have ranked as the second-best team in the competition without the footy this season.
The pressure creates turnovers and across the past seven rounds Sydney has ranked fifth in the competition for points from turnovers at an average of 51.3 points a game.
When they have the ball, the Swans play an up-tempo game and are a very good kicking team who like to change angles to bring the footy back through the corridor or shift it onto the open side of the ground.
Blitz starts have also been a feature for Sydney.
They have led at halftime in 15 matches this season – the second-most of any side.
However, the Swans have also suffered some fade-outs and have lost five games after leading at three-quarter-time, which is a slight concern.
THE KEY
Play the Sydney way with transition ball movement.
The Swans will be put under pressure defensively at stages by Carlton’s clearance strength, but the backline group led by Tom McCartin and Dane Rampe have shown a great ability to absorb the heat.
If they can win the ball back in that area of the ground, we know what an efficient and damaging team they can be on counter-attack transition.
The likes of Nick Blakey, Jake Lloyd and Harry Cunningham enjoy kickstarting the offence through smart and efficient ball use and run and carry.
That will trouble Carlton’s team defence if Blues players have even a slight lapse in concentration or workrate by not covering pockets of space that the Swans will look to move through.
THE THEME
Defend stoppage.
Carlton is a brutal team around the footy, led by Patrick Cripps and George Hewett.
They are tough competitors who want to win their own ball – and winning your own ball is king in finals.
Sydney coach John Longmire might look to roll up a forward to stoppages between the arcs to saturate them or allow for one of his wingmen to fold back and support the back six.
Don’t get beat by what you know and we know Carlton relies heavily on scores from stoppages.
THE CHALLENGE
Bring the ball to ground.
Sydney can’t allow Carlton to control the aerial battle.
At both ends of the ground, the Blues have players who can mark the footy and stop goals or kick goals.
Jacob Weitering has been playing out of his skin, averaging 5.2 intercept marks across his past five games.
Whether it is Hayden McLean, Logan McDonald or Isaac Heeney that finds themselves on Weitering, they must bring the ball to ground.
At the other end, the Sydney defenders also need to make sure Charlie Curnow doesn’t mark it too often.
The Swans need to make it a ground ball game and bring their smalls into it.
IF I WERE THE SWANS
I’d keep Jacob Weitering occupied.
Don’t allow him to position himself in the line of the ball without an opponent, particularly in slow-play situations.
Weitering’s opponent must always stay relevant or compete strongly and bring the ball to ground if there is a down-the-line kick to give the Swans’ small forwards ground ball opportunities.
Callum Mills has to go to Patrick Cripps and try and take away his first-possession game to cut the snake off at the head.
I’d consider playing more hybrid, mobile defenders like Robbie Fox, Aaron Francis or Nick Blakey on Charlie Curnow.
Tom McCartin is well suited to take Harry McKay and Dane Rampe can take Carlton’s deepest forward, as he often likes to do.
MICK’S TIP – Sydney by three points.
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