AFL Finals 2022: Champion Data reveals the players whose form has surged in the lead-up to finals – and whose has dropped
There’s plenty that has gone right at Collingwood recently, but who are the players who need to lift? Check out all the finals bound hot and cold players.
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Who is ready to fire for the eight finals teams this September?
Timing is everything and these are the players running into form at the right time of the year.
We asked Champion Data to find the players whose performances have surged late in the home-and-away season, priming them for a finals assault.
Then there are the players who have dropped away and will need to find another gear in the heat of the finals action.
Melbourne matchwinner Kysaiah Pickett, Magpies Rising Star Nick Daicos, Richmond spearhead Tom Lynch and Western Bulldogs young gun Jamarra Ugle-Hagan are among those to have upped their game, recording a rise in their player ranking points in the lead-up to the finals.
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But the recent output of a Brownlow medallist, Demons leader and controversial Magpie has dropped off, according to Champion Data’s analysis.
Champion Data has compared players’ performances from Rounds 1-17 to Rounds 18-23 based on their player ranking points.
The analysis is based on a minimum of eight matches played between Rounds 1 and 17 and three matches between Rounds 18 and 23.
1. GEELONG
HOT
Max Holmes
Gryan Miers
Jack Henry
NOT
Mark O’Connor
Tom Stewart
Patrick Dangerfield
Young Cats midfielder Max Holmes is geared up for the flag favourite’s finals campaign with a surge in his late-season form, but Brownlow medallist Patrick Dangerfield’s impact has dropped off since his return from injury. In his second season in the AFL, Holmes has had the sharpest rankings rise of any Geelong player in the past six games, up 31 per cent from 56 between Round 1-17 to 81-7 since Round 18. The ranking of forward Gryan Miers (+30 per cent) and defender Jack Henry (+23 per cent) has also gone up late in the season. Dangerfield, who missed a chunk of football in the middle of the season with a calf injury before returning in Round 16, slid 27 per cent from 89.2 to 70.5 since Round 18. Mark O’Connor (-30 per cent) had the sharpest rankings drop, while defender Tom Stewart, who returned in Round 20 from a four-match man for his bump on Dion Prestia, (-27 per cent) also fell away.
2. MELBOURNE
HOT
Jayden Hunt
Ben Brown
Kysaiah Pickett
NOT
James Jordon
Charlie Spargo
Alex Neal-Bullen
Missing out on a spot in last year’s premiership team is clearly driving Demon defender Jayden Hunt. One of the unlucky stories from the team’s flag-winning campaign, Hunt played every game up to Round 21 before a late ankle injury cost him his place in the team and he was unable to force his way back in. As the Demons ramp up their bid for back-to-back flags, Hunt’s performances have also lifted with his ranking points rising 46 per cent from 38.8 in Rounds 1-17 to 71.5 between Rounds 18-23. After a lean period in the middle of the season, key forward Ben Brown is also hitting form at the right time. Brown, who has managed knee soreness during the year, is also up from 55.4 to 81.7, a rise of 32 per cent, kicking eight goals in his last four games. Demons matchwinner Kysaiah Pickett’s ranking is also up 25 per cent on the back of 18 goals in his past six games. James Jordan (-45 per cent), Charlie Spargo (-35 per cent) and Alex Neal-Bullen (-28 per cent) were the players who had the sharpest drop in their player ranking points, according to Champion Data.
3. SYDNEY
HOT
Will Hayward
James Rowbottom
Oliver Florent
NOT
Nick Blakey
Patrick McCartin
Tom McCartin
Sydney forward Will Hayward is ready to fire for the Swans in September if his late-season form surge continues. Based on Champion Data’s analysis, Hayward has recorded a 31 per cent jump in his ranking points from 60.9 to 88.6 in the past six matches. The 23-year-old has kicked 10 goals in that period. Midfielder James Rowbottom (+22 per cent) and Oliver Florent (+20 per cent) had the next highest jumps. Defender Nick Blakey was the Swan to have recorded the biggest slide in his ranking points, down 17 per cent from 90 to 76.9 in the past six matches. Paddy (-12 per cent) and Tom McCartin (-11 per cent) also recorded rankings drops late in the season.
4. COLLINGWOOD
HOT
Josh Daicos
Beau McCreery
Nick Daicos
NOT
Will Hoskin-Elliott
Brody Mihocek
Jack Crisp
Fresh from his Rising Star win, Collingwood young gun Nick Daicos and his brother Josh are ready to fire for the Magpies in September, according to Champion Data. Josh, who was named in the All-Australian squad, had the sharpest rise of any Magpie in his ranking points late in the season, up 16 per cent from 74 in Rounds 1-17 to 88.1 per cent in the last six games. Forward Beau McCreery and 19-year-old Nick – who polled the most votes ever in a Rising Star count – both had a 10 per cent increase in their ranking points across the last six games. But Will Hoskin-Elliott recorded a sharp drop in ranking points, down 82 per cent in the last six games compared to Rounds 1-17. Key forward Brody Mihocek’s ranking was also down 38 per cent since Round 18, kicking seven goals since then. While reigning club champion Jack Crisp, one of the Magpies’ most consistent performers this year, was also down 28 per cent in the past six games, based on Champion Data’s ranking points.
5. FREMANTLE
HOT
Alex Pearce
Luke Ryan
Michael Walters
NOT
Rory Lobb
Heath Chapman
Blake Acres
Fremantle defender Alex Pearce is primed for his first finals campaign based on his late-season form, according to Champion Data’s analysis. Pearce, who has bounced back in 2022 after a bad run with injury, recorded the highest rankings rise of any Docker, up 30 per cent from 53.6 between Rounds 1-17 to 76.8 since Round 18. Fellow defender Luke Ryan (+20 per cent) and forward Michael Walters (+16 per cent) also recorded a rankings rise. Gun Dockers forward Rory Lobb could be a big player come trade time, but he has had the sharpest drop-off of any Fremantle player, based on the player rankings. Despite a four-goal haul against the Bulldogs in Round 22, Lobb has dropped 40 per cent from 88 to 63 since Round 18. Heath Chapman (-27 per cent) and Blake Acres (-23 per cent) also recorded drops in their rankings.
6. BRISBANE
HOT
Callum Ah Chee
Cam Rayner
Eric Hipwood
NOT
Joe Daniher
Jarrod Berry
Lincoln McCarthy
It’s clear why the Brisbane Lions fought to have young gun Cam Rayner’s one-game ban for a heavy tackle on Melbourne’s Ben Brown overturned at the AFL Tribunal. Rayner, who has kicked five goals in the past two games, is one of the top-two Lions to have recorded the highest player ranking rise late in the season. The 2017 No. 1 draft pick was up 20 per cent from 66.5 to 83 in the last six games of the season and will be a costly out when his suspension forces him to miss the Lions’ elimination final against Richmond. Midfielder Callum Ah Chee (+25) had the sharpest player ranking rise, while key forward Eric Hipwood was up 19 per cent since Round 18, kicking 10 goals in that period. But fellow forward Joe Daniher has had the sharpest player rankings drop of any Lions’ player, down 55 per cent from 70.3 between Rounds 1-17 to 45.3 in the past six games. Midfielder Jarrod Berry (-34 per cent) and forward Lincoln McCarthy (-26 per cent) also fell.
7. RICHMOND
HOT
Tom Lynch
Trent Cotchin
Kamdyn McIntosh
NOT
Jack Graham
Marlion Pickett
Nathan Broad
It’s no surprise Richmond didn’t want to take any risks with Tom Lynch’s sore groin in the final game of the home-and-away season. The Tigers’ spearhead has been in white-hot form late in the season, kicking 21 goals in his past four games, including a massive eight-goal bag against Hawthorn in Round 22. The big hauls have helped boost Lynch’s player ranking points from 82.9 to 134 since Round 18 – a rise of 38 per cent. Former captain Trent Cotchin has also found form late in the year with his ranking points up from 74.7 to 99 in the past six games, while Kamdyn McIntosh was up 23 per cent in the past six games. Midfielder Jack Graham (-43 per cent), Marlion Pickett (-39 per cent) and Nathan Broad (-37 per cent) have all suffered a slide in their ranking points since Round 18, according to Champion Data.
8. WESTERN BULLDOGS
HOT
Jamarra Ugle-Hagan
Ed Richards
Ryan Gardiner
NOT
Alex Keath
Rhylee West
Aaron Naughton
One high-flying young Bulldogs forward has taken off, while another has come back to earth, based on Champion Data’s analysis. No. 1 draft pick Jamarra Ugle-Hagan has had a 49 per cent rise in his player ranking points since Round 18, up from 32.6 to 64.2. The rise has come on the back of 11 goals in his past six matches. But fellow forward Aaron Naughton was one of three Bulldogs to record a drop in their player ranking points late in the season. Naughton, who has kicked nine goals in his past five games, has slipped 40 per cent from 85.1 between Round 1-17 to 60.6 since Round 18. Defenders Ed Richards (+35 per cent) and Ryan Gardner (+13 per cent) joined Ugle-Hagan in recording the sharpest rises among the Bulldogs, while the rankings of key backman Alex Keath (-48 per cent) and Rhylee West (-42 per cent) have fallen since Round 18.
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