AFL 2025 fixture analysis: Carlton, Melbourne handed bumper draws as Pies, Hawks, Saints facing tougher seasons

Two clubs have been given early Christmas presents to boost their flag credentials, Hawthorn is set to face the prime time lights, and payback for the Saints? JAY CLARK breaks down the fixture.

Michael Voss might consider it good karma.

When Carlton’s senior coach turned into football’s Batman and laid the desperate citizen’s arrest on a suspected car thief post-season, Voss said he acted out of instinct and adrenaline.

But when it comes to next year’s all-important fixture, fortune has certainly favoured the brave-hearted Blues’ boss.

Exactly 16 weeks out from the start of the new season, Carlton on Thursday was gifted the kind of dream draw which should rubber stamp the club’s return to the top-four in 2025.

Get their injury issues sorted out too, after a horror run last season, and the Blues will be neck-deep in a genuine flag tilt next season.

Like a couple of early Christmas presents, Carlton on Thursday peeled back the tinsel to find they will play only two double-up games against top-eight sides next season.

The twin finalists they will confront are the much-improved Hawks and a shaky-looking Port Adelaide, plus four repeat games against West Coast, North Melbourne, Essendon and Collingwood.

And Voss’s men will have every chance to get off to a flying start with only one top-four opponent in the first nine rounds of the new season which is against Geelong at the MCG in Round 7. Blue heaven.

Carlton has been dealt a dream draw. Picture: Mark Stewart

Charlie Curnow and the Blues will be licking their lips. Picture: Mark Stewart

Chief executive Brian Cook would have had a smile on his face when he broke out the red for his 70th birthday lunch with a group of his 20 closest mates in an inner-city restaurant yesterday.

And Melbourne coach Simon Goodwin will be toasting his change in luck.

Their fall down the ladder off the back of three-straight years of top-four finishes simply has to be a quick bounce back up to the top in 2025.

Everything might have gone wrong for the Demons last year, but if they can’t make the eight with the easy run they were gifted on Thursday then a total clean-out will be on the cards.

That is how stark it will be for Melbourne in 2025, and particularly in regards to the futures of Christian Petracca, Clayton Oliver and Goodwin, who are all contracted beyond next season.

It’s finals or bust for the red and blue, and fans are unlikely to cop another year of excuses.

Remarkably, Melbourne will play only one double-up game against a top-eight side from 2024 which is Hawthorn.

There is not one double-up game against a top-four team.

Otherwise, the Demons have a run that is softer than a duck down pillow with repeat contests against North Melbourne, West Coast, Gold Coast, St Kilda, Collingwood and Hawthorn.

Simon Goodwin and the Demons are in the box seat for a return for finals after being handed a soft draw. Picture: Mark Stewart

The Suns, Saints and Pies will all consider themselves a good chance to beat the Demons but if Goodwin can sort out the game plan, keep the stars on the park and fix the off-field issues after the boardroom brawl, then Melbourne will catapult back into contention.

Collingwood wasn’t popping bottles, however. The challenge is steep.

The Magpies will have to earn their return to the eight next year with a run which includes a difficult first two months and double-up games against premier Brisbane, Carlton, Hawthorn, Fremantle, Melbourne and Adelaide.

Craig McRae’s men will be in better shape to start the season than 12 months ago, but they’ll have to be on point early with clashes against 2024 finalists in seven of their first eight outings.

Likewise, join the dots on a tricky start for St Kilda.

Chairman Andrew Bassat ripped the AFL for its draft rules at the best fairest, saying the system was broken and favoured the wealthier clubs.

In return, the Saints will play three of the top-four clubs in the first five rounds, and six finalists in the first nine weeks of the season. There are two trips to Perth.

How will Ross Lyon and the Saints fare with a tougher fixture. Picture: Michael Willson/AFL Photos via Getty Images.

Maybe it is a stretch, or perhaps a little reminder from the league.

The red carpet has been rolled out for the Hawks who have been elevated from the back rows of the plane to first class with a huge scoop of Thursday and Friday night prime time slots.

We are all talking about the Showtime Hawks, and internally it will be interesting how Sam Mitchell handles all the attention, adoration and expectations.

Because the Hollywood Hawks could still flop.

While the coffers will be full from the extra exposure and big ticket sales the marquee slots will generate, Hawthorn still has to deliver on the field against five finalists across the first six matches.

They sprang back from nowhere down 0-5 this year, and have since beefed-up the back line in the trade period.

But hopes will soar, and the headlines will write themselves if Mitchell’s men stumble on the main stage against the Swans (SCG), Blues, Cats, Giants (Launceston) and Port Adelaide (Adelaide Oval).

The Pies have been dealt a tough fixture. Picture: Mark Stewart

Timing-wise, there is lots to like about the AFL’s 2025 fixture, including an earlier 1.20pm start on Saturday to minimise the overlap.

Saturday afternoon twilight games are the new Saturday night blockbusters. The interest rose sharply in attendances and ratings last season.

And Sunday nights will become more of a feature rather than typical, and occasionally one-sided game in the west.

There are nine Sunday night fixtures in the opening 16 weeks which the broadcasters will love.

That includes the Ken Hinkley versus Hawthorn grudge match in Gather Round, a 7.20pm Western Bulldogs-Sydney Swans battle on Easter Sunday, and the King’s Birthday Eve blockbuster between Essendon and Carlton in Round 13 on June 8.

The two Showdowns are on Thursday and Saturday nights, and Essendon will remain in the AFL’s good books with a healthy slathering of prime time night games including the first Friday night Dreamtime Game against Richmond in Round 11.

The 20-year finals win drought hasn’t affected the Bombers’ corporate and crowd pull.

But new GWS Giants’ powerhouse Jake Stringer will have to wait until Round 19 to meet his old mates at Marvel Stadium, undoubtedly with a point to prove after getting the boot.

Originally published as AFL 2025 fixture analysis: Carlton, Melbourne handed bumper draws as Pies, Hawks, Saints facing tougher seasons