AFL 2024 Pressure Index: The clubs feeling the heat this season
Who is under the pump more – the Western Bulldogs or Melbourne? And is there any pressure at all on the Pies? We go through every club to rate how high the blowtorch is being applied in season 2024.
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The first bounce of the ball on another footy season is still weeks away but the heat is already rising.
Arguably no figure in the AFL this year will be watched as closely as Western Bulldogs coach Luke Beveridge, who is facing a make-or-break campaign after missing finals last year.
Change has happened around the 2016 premiership coach and those inside and outside the club believe his list should be contending for a flag.
After a dismal September and a summer of bad headlines, Melbourne is facing the blowtorch, with a premiership clock ticking louder and louder.
Pressure will mount on Fremantle and coach Justin Longmuir if the Dockers start slow, while West Coast has so much to prove after last year’s pathetic campaign.
As the countdown to opening round continues, here is a pressure rating for all 18 clubs.
Western Bulldogs 9.5/10
The heat is right up on the Western Bulldogs this year. Club officials concluded their review into the football department and promoted Matt Egan, despite the former Cat only being at the club for a few months, and there have already been off-season reports about Fremantle interested in Luke Beveridge’s services. The coach is locked away for the next two seasons, but a disappointing finals absence in 2023 despite a talented list has the Bulldogs under pressure ahead of 2024. Throw in clubs sniffing around Bailey Smith and his expiring contract, and the Bulldogs are fighting on multiple fronts. The club will need to head back up the ladder to ease concerns.
Melbourne 9/10
The Demons will enter 2024 as one of the clubs under the most pressure after a disastrous last 12 months. A straight sets finals defeat put the heat on at the end of last season, as did the trade circus surrounding Clayton Oliver before the star midfielder spent time away from the club in the pre-season. Oliver is back training with the team and completing full sessions, however there is still is no timeline on his return to play. Throw on the disaster last year surrounding the Brodie Grundy recruitment, as well as the forward line dysfunction and a battle to keep talented young tall Harrison Petty, the Demons face an uphill battle in 2024. The Dees seem set on Simon Goodwin to take the club forward, with the premiership coach signed until the end of 2026, but questions have been raised about his control over the group.
Fremantle 8/10
You know the pressure is on when the stories are already coming out about a potential senior coach replacement before a ball has been bounced, but that is the reality for the Dockers and Justin Longmuir in 2024. While the Dockers looked to be building something in 2022, last year was as dour as it could have been for Fremantle. Yes, there is some exciting talent there but far too often the Dockers were timid when other teams were daring. If Longmuir can’t get the Dockers back on track, then it does look like it will go only one way. Even returning to contending for finals looks like it won’t be enough.
Port Adelaide 8/10
Port Adelaide’s straight-sets finals exit lifted the pressure on the club and coach Ken Hinkley going into season 2024. The Power opted to re-sign Hinkley for two years in August before the team bombed out in September, prompting plenty of criticism from fans and media. The external pressure will ramp up again if Port gets off to another slow start. Having seemingly addressed two deficiencies – key defensive posts and ruck stocks – anything short of a preliminary final will be seen as a failure.
West Coast 7.5/10
West Coast is finally embarking on a proper rebuild, but it cannot afford another uncompetitive season. For the past two years, the Eagles have been competition easybeats, winning just five of 45 games and losing seven by more than 100 points. The club has stood by 2018 premiership coach Adam Simpson, who is contracted until the end of 2025. How long that remains the case probably depends on what this season looks like. If gradual improvement is not evident and massive defeats continue to pile up, Simpson will quickly be under pressure again.
Essendon 7/10
Bombers fans are unapologetic in their desire to break the famous finals win drought as it enters its 20th year, and Essendon’s position is probably the best it has been in a while to do so. The club has plenty of high-end draft picks that are starting to flourish at senior level, and the senior pieces like Zach Merrett and Darcy Parish are now in their prime. A healthy Peter Wright, along with new recruits Ben McKay, Jade Gresham, Todd Goldstein and Xavier Duursma strengthening the list, means the Bombers should be expecting a finals appearance in the second season under Brad Scott.
Geelong 6.5/10
An uncharacteristic finals absence from Chris Scott’s side in 2023 gave the Cats another highly-rated draft pick, with Connor O’Sullivan adding to an impressive group of youngsters. While it was disappointing for Geelong to miss the eight, winning a grand final the year before took the pressure the side. But Cats fans are used to regular success, so Scott and his men will want to bounce back quickly.
Gold Coast 6/10
Damien Hardwick arrives with a long run up on a six-year deal but the Suns need saving from the get-go. Gold Coast has been forecast as a finals smoky in recent years but with only two 10-win seasons in club history, it’s bleak reading. Gold Coast is one of the harder teams to rank on this list given outside expectation varies wildly. But the club has publicly declared its candidacy for finals and premierships and must be held accountable to those goals, beginning this season.
Adelaide 6/10
It is approaching the seventh year since the Crows last tasted finals action and while they have been patient, the Adelaide fans will be expecting that 2024 is the year where this drought is ended. There is plenty of excitement around Matthew Nicks’ side, and this should get the out-of-contract Nicks a new deal potentially before the season with the Crows and many observers convinced they are on the right track with their thrilling game style. But if the Crows start slowly — and it isn’t the easiest draw for a side that has some big question marks around its defence — then the patience of Adelaide fans might run out.
North Melbourne 6/10
The pieces for future stardom is there. North Melbourne is still a while away from competing for finals, but the talent is filtering in. But the main pressure comes off the field. What is happening with Tarryn Thomas? And will Cam Zurhaar, who was noncommittal about his contract talks last week, stay long term at the club? Free agency looms for the talented forward, and if the Roos don’t make on-field progress he could be one of a few out the door. Bailey Scott, Brayden George, Eddie Ford, Hugh Greenwood, Tom Powell and Will Phillips join Zurhaar and Thomas as talented Roos that have expiring deals. Could we see an exodus?
Sydney 5.5/10
The pressure is on the Swans to prove their youngsters are ready to make another deep finals run. After making the grand final in 2022, it’s clear this Sydney side has the talent to challenge for another premiership 10 years after its last. And while it’s not flag or bust for the Swans, winning at least one match in September has to be the benchmark to which they mark this season given they loaded up with recruits Brodie Grundy and Taylor Adams. They will also have to dedicate just as much time to contract negotiations with several of their most talented young players coming off contract. Breakout star Errol Gulden headlines the list, but keeping Logan McDonald, James Rowbottom, Will Hayward and Ollie Florent will be seen as just as important.
Carlton 5/10
After sitting outside the finals and almost sacking their coach mid-season, to playing in a preliminary final and getting close to the season decider, it’d make sense for the pressure to be low on the Blues. But now their fanbase knows their expectations are not unfounded, and Carlton is capable of lifting silverware. Michael Voss has signed a two-year extension, with a clear view of keeping the good times rolling. The Blues will need to go deep in finals, and probably challenge for the premiership, to appease its supporters.
St Kilda 5/10
The Saints made finals and had clear progress in Ross Lyon’s first season at the helm. However, with the departure of Simon Lethlean in the off-season and eyes now firmly on St Kilda, the club is starting to feel the heat. It has been a long time since the Saints were in the premiership conversation, and while they are likely outside of that window for now, they have some young pieces that could keep fans optimistic. Mattaes Phillipou, Mitch Owens and Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera all have the potential to be elite AFL footballers, so there is definitely upside at St Kilda.
Hawthorn 3.5/10
There was plenty to like in Sam Mitchell’s first two seasons in charge, and with a clear path and talented youngsters to take the club forward, there isn’t a heap of pressure on Hawthorn this season. Jai Newcombe has already become one of the game’s top young midfielders, while there is plenty of blossoming talent to suggest a finals run is not far away. As long as the Hawks remain competitive, beat some of the finals-contending sides and show growth in its young talent, the fans will remain happy. Injuries may curtail some of those green shoots this season, though.
Richmond 3.5/10
The pressure is almost non-existent at Tigerland, with Adam Yze taking the reins after a 2023 campaign that saw Damien Hardwick step away and ultimately defect to the Gold Coast. While Richmond has enjoyed close to a decade of success, the next generation of Tigers are starting to get priority going forward. A bottom four finish could be on the cards for Richmond as the coaching staff and list managers try to find a way to get the most out of ageing players like Dustin Martin (32) and Tom Lynch (31).
Brisbane Lions 3.5/10
Another trip to a prelim has to be the passing mark for the Lions this season, who have made a habit of featuring at the pointy end under Chris Fagan for half a decade now. The doomsayers will declare premiership or bust for this remarkably talented group, but the Lions’ window is still ajar for a handful of years. Anyone who says Fagan is in the hot seat because he is yet to win a flag is misguided. But if the Lions drop out of the top four this year, questions will be asked about whether an opportunity has been missed.
GWS Giants 3/10
The Giants can no longer fly under the radar in 2024 and the pressure will be on Adam Kingsley to repeat his outstanding work as a first-year coach. The team is basically the same and they’ve got some incredible young talent coming through the ranks. Combine that with a healthy list and relatively soft draw to start the season, and the Giants should be looking to sit comfortably in the top four across the opening two months and then try and ride that wave to the end of the year. This is the year the Giants will try to make their hard work count off the field. They captivated the AFL with their play style last season and will be hoping they see a jump in home crowds as a result. The last time they were on this type of high in 2019, Covid arrived and home matches were played in front of empty stadiums. The Giants will be hoping they have the opportunity to capitalise in 2024.
Collingwood 2.5/10
The pressure is off for the Magpies after winning a premiership under Craig McRae, but expectations are still sky-high on this contending squad. Collingwood will remain firmly in the premiership mix in 2024 and going forward, with a chaotic play style seemingly the format for this season as well. But there has been just two back-to-back premiership winners since 2004 (Hawthorn 2013-15 and Richmond 2019-20), so the goal will be to buck the trend. However, a Geelong-type season of last year will put the pressure right on McRae’s outfit.
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Originally published as AFL 2024 Pressure Index: The clubs feeling the heat this season
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