AFL predicted ladder: Finals path narrows for three clubs in run home
A shock result last round could leave just three clubs at risk of a heartbreaking ninth-placed finish. See who they are, predict your own ladder and see ours here.
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In the race to September, percentage will be nine-tenths of the law for our finals contenders.
Not only could percentage determine the desperately unfortunate top-nine side that misses the finals, but it is also shaping to be the difference between a double-chance and sixth in a jam-packed top eight.
See our predicted ladder below.
DO YOUR OWN PREDICTED LADDER, THEN SCROLL DOWN TO SEE OURS
1. COLLINGWOOD
Played: 18, Won: 14, Lost: 4, Percentage: 133.7
Players and coaches say the Pies aren’t stuck in a mid-season rut — and their remarkable pressure numbers in the one-point defeat to Fremantle back that up.
Billy Frampton (calf) and Jeremy Howe (adductor) were missed badly in defence against the Dockers and will be needed for a huge three games against Brisbane, Hawthorn and Adelaide which will shape the top four.
We’ve given the Magpies a loss on the road to the in-form Crows, but project them to perform strongly on the MCG to sew up the minor premiership.
2. BRISBANE
Played: 18, Won: 13, Lost: 4, Drawn: 1, Percentage: 116.6
The Lions’ Friday night thriller against the Bulldogs was the start of a gruelling run home which is rated the second-most difficult of any side by Champion Data.
Three wins in their home state including over a reeling Gold Coast next week are projected here, but Brisbane has travelled well all year and will rate their chances of knocking off the Magpies or the Dockers, which would secure a top-two spot.
3. ADELAIDE
Played: 18, Won: 13, Lost: 5, Percentage: 139.6
Right now they are the form side of the competition, and the Crows can clinch the minor premiership if they manage to go unbeaten through their run home.
Hawthorn and Collingwood both match up well against Adelaide, but would have to knock them off on the road – we have the Crows going 1-1 in those games to finish second, but their electric last fortnight has been worthy of a table-topping side.
4. GEELONG
Played: 18, Won: 12, Lost: 6, Percentage: 128.2
Champion Data says Geelong has the easiest run home, and it’s difficult to argue otherwise.
The Cats have a 13-point percentage advantage over Gold Coast and a bigger lead over Fremantle which should allow them to hold their spot in the top four provided they can win four of their final five games.
Geelong’s ceiling is still top spot – Sydney has become tough to play against in the last month, but the Swans could be left with nothing to play for by the time we reach round 23.
5. HAWTHORN
Played: 18, Won: 12, Lost: 6, Percentage: 119
All-Australian pair James Sicily and Dylan Moore finding form in Launceston is significant for the Hawks, but the loss to Fremantle has left them with little margin for error in a challenging run home.
Hawthorn likely must beat one of the three top-four sides in its path to reach a second consecutive finals campaign under Sam Mitchell.
They will want to avoid a de facto elimination final against Brisbane at the Gabba in round 24, where the Lions could have a top-two spot on the line.
6. GWS GIANTS
Played: 18, Won: 12, Lost: 6, Percentage: 116
The Giants are starting to get on a roll, but it must continue with another big scalp on the road over the next month to get to the 16 wins (yes, sixteen!) that might be needed to guarantee a finals spot given their percentage.
Sydney is humming as well, and will relish its chance to put the cross-town rivals under the pump with an upset win in Friday night’s Battle of the Bridge at Engie Stadium.
The Giants are in a good spot for player availability this week, having managed Jesse Hogan and Josh Kelly and held back a returning Sam Taylor (toe) for the big clash.
7. FREMANTLE
Played: 18, Won: 12, Lost: 6, Percentage: 108.9
The win over Collingwood at the MCG – their first over the Pies at the venue since 2019 – was a display of maturity and an ominous warning to the other finals contenders after the Dockers appeared to struggle with expectation early in the season.
Hayden Young’s successful comeback from a hamstring injury and the impending return of captain Alex Pearce leaves Fremantle in a strong position to win its next three against West Coast, Port Adelaide and Carlton.
Take the points in one of their difficult final two games and the Dockers will be assured of finals qualification – fans can still dream of a double-chance.
8. GOLD COAST
Played: 17, Won: 11, Lost: 6, Percentage: 115.5
Despite their impressive win over Collingwood, the equation still looks tricky for the Suns, who will need to win at Marvel against Carlton and handle GWS at home to secure their finals hopes if they fall to Brisbane at People First Stadium this weekend.
Port Adelaide could be anything in Ken Hinkley’s final game as coach in round 24 – but the probable absence of Jason Horne-Francis after foot surgery along with other injuries works against the Power.
9. WESTERN BULLDOGS
Played: 18, Won: 10, Lost: 8, Percentage: 127.4
Western Bulldogs coach Luke Beveridge said after Friday night’s loss to the Lions that his side would probably need to “win ‘em all” in the run home to reach September – and our ladder prediction agrees with him.
Percentage remains high for the Dogs and will lock them into the top eight if they get to 15 wins – but a loss to GWS in round 21 would be potentially catastrophic to their hopes.
A burning question for the Dogs will be which defensive personnel they deploy against Jesse Hogan, Aaron Cadman and Jake Stringer when the Giants travel south again.
Like Hawthorn’s run home last year, the finals series is effectively underway as of now for Beveridge’s men.
10. SYDNEY SWANS
Played: 18, Won: 9, Lost: 9, Percentage: 96.5
It cannot be ignored that the Swans have made it a 10th team alive in this finals race – especially when Isaac Heeney is turning in 34-disposal, five-goal performances and Errol Gulden is back delivering the ball inside 50.
Friday night’s clash against GWS is effectively an elimination final for the 2024 runner-up side, and they must beat Brisbane (Gabba) and Geelong (SCG) in the weeks after to be any chance of sneaking into the finals.
11. PORT ADELAIDE
Played: 18, Won: 8, Lost: 10, Percentage: 88
Skipper Connor Rozee will weigh up whether to carry a busted left hand through Saturday night’s Showdown, which would be a huge inclusion for the Power as they try to spoil Adelaide’s run at a top-two spot.
Port will also have chances to meddle in the affairs of Geelong, Fremantle and Gold Coast, but injuries will be a drag on any hopes of disrupting the top eight.
12. CARLTON
Played: 18, Won: 7, Lost: 11, Percentage: 94.6
The Blues could finish the season in high spirits by winning three on the trot in Melbourne against Gold Coast, Port Adelaide and Essendon, but the Suns have been a class above them this season and the Power well and truly had their measure a month ago.
13. MELBOURNE
Played: 18, Won: 6, Lost: 12, Percentage: 89.7
It could be a miserable run home for the Demons after stumbling against Carlton in a game many expected them to win.
St Kilda will provide a stern test in round 20 before a difficult final three games, which could be made worse if key defender Steven May is sidelined for any of them through suspension.
14. ESSENDON
Played: 17, Won: 6, Lost: 11, Percentage: 75
Essendon’s efforts in recent weeks to avoid being blown away by stronger opponents has been admirable, but there’s little joy ahead for the injury-riddled Bombers in their last six games of the season. Wins over St Kilda and Carlton in rounds 23-24 would end the year on a more positive note.
15. ST KILDA
Played: 18, Won: 5, Lost: 13, Percentage: 85.3
The next four are very winnable for the Saints if they sustain their decent form of late, but Melbourne will be stinging after its loss to Carlton and will be tough to beat at Marvel on Sunday.
16. RICHMOND
Played: 18, Won: 5, Lost: 13, Percentage: 68.5
It won’t affect their tantalising draft hand, but rolling North Melbourne in Hobart to finish above them on the ladder could be the next upset in the sights of Adem Yze’s Tigers.
17. NORTH MELBOURNE
Played: 18, Won: 4, Lost: 13, Drawn: 1, Percentage: 76.1
Coach Alastair Clarkson needs a win in the last five games to relieve a little bit of pressure – the Roos will give themselves a chance in the next two at Marvel, but Tristan Xerri’s absence due to suspension clearly hurt against Sydney.
18. WEST COAST
Played: 18, Won: 1, Lost: 17, Percentage: 63.6
Second-year expansion side GWS was the last team to record a one-win season, and only the fifth since 1972. After a shocker against Richmond, West Coast has three home games all against finals contenders where it will surely go hard to avoid that fate.
Originally published as AFL predicted ladder: Finals path narrows for three clubs in run home
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