AFL 2025 fixture analysis: Which clubs have been given easiest starts and best runs home

The clouds could be lifting for the Blues after a tough start, but one club has the softest fixture, after the easiest opening five rounds. JOSH BARNES reveals who the fixture is favouring.

Damien Hardwick’s dream start to the season looks set to turn into a dream finish, according to an adjusted fixture analysis of the run home from here.

The Suns have enjoyed a comfortable start to the season, beating three of the bottom four on the current ladder — West Coast, Melbourne and North Melbourne — as well as nudging out Adelaide.

It has made for the club’s first ever 4-0 start to a season, with another bottom-four team in Richmond to come this weekend.

On an analysis of the fixture so far, the Suns have the best rating of any team based on current ladder positions.

Their rating, as well as Essendon’s, has been adjusted by average to cover for only playing four games so far.

A Champion Data analysis of the remainder of the fixture is golden for Hardwick’s men, too.

With double-up games against Richmond, Melbourne, Essendon, Brisbane, Adelaide and GWS to come, the number-crunchers rate Gold Coast as having the season’s easiest fixture from here.

That leaves no excuses in the hunt for a maiden finals berth this year.

“The season is so long,” Hardwick said after last weekend’s win over North Melbourne.
“What I do know is we’re doing some things really well and then there’s some areas of our game that we can certainly improve.

“What I have been really pleased with is that at various times throughout the game we have been challenged and our players have been able to stifle momentum and build our game back up.”

There is hope for Carlton after a dreary start to the season, with the Blues holding the second-easiest fixture behind the Suns.

However, Ken Hinkley’s Port Adelaide faces only teams hoping to play finals on the run home, with double-ups against Sydney, Carlton, Fremantle, Hawthorn, Geelong and Adelaide.

That gives the Power the hardest fixture from here.

Reigning premier Brisbane has the second-hardest draw, followed by Essendon.

Andrew McQualter may be wondering what he has done to anger the footy gods, after being handed the toughest run in the opening six weeks of action.

The Eagles are the only side to have played each of the top three sides on the current ladder.

And it doesn’t get much easier from here, with West Coast holding the fourth-toughest fixture to come.

Of course, the Eagles’ fixture is naturally tougher because they can’t play the bottom side, given they sit 18th.

With only six weekends of footy completed the favourability of the fixture will no doubt change, but the draw is shining on the Suns.