Will Hong Kong be the next Tiananmen Square?
As violent clashes between protesters and police escalate and a creeping sense of anxiety of an impending showdown builds, the new concern of Hong Kong residents is a valid one, writes Lucy Carne.
You can hear it everywhere on the streets of Hong Kong.
Two words soaked in condemnation, sadness, and now, apprehension: Tiananmen Square.
I’ve heard it in snatches of conversation in coffee shops, hotel foyers, on a packed central city escalator and outside a 7-11 in the underground MTR rail system.
“Will Hong Kong be the next Tiananmen Square?”
As violent clashes between protesters and police escalate and a creeping sense of anxiety of an impending showdown builds, it’s a valid concern.
It took 55 days of student protests for democracy in 1989 before the Chinese government declared martial law and in the dark of night unleashed tanks and 30,000 troops on Beijing.
The death toll has never been confirmed, but some estimate several thousand young people were killed. Witnesses described watching busloads of bodies removed from the square.
RELATED: Why Aussies aren’t moving from Hong Kong amid violent protests
It has now been 11 weeks of pro-democracy protests in Hong Kong — with one of the biggest gatherings organised for Sunday to condemn police brutality. Organisers are hoping for up to 1 million people to turn up to the peaceful protest.
It is astonishing that no one has been killed in these Hong Kong protests.
And perhaps that is a sign of China’s post-Tiananmen restraint.
Not that there hasn’t been brutality. Police are unloading harmful expired tear gas at protesters inside enclosed subway stations. A nurse lost her eye after being hit with a beanbag round.
Police have panicked and drawn their guns on protesters twice — including in Hong Kong’s packed international airport on Tuesday night.
But if mainland China wants to quell the rising movement, they easily could have done so by now.
The paramilitary troops assembling in Shenzhen near the border of Hong Kong are an intimidating show of force and an obvious tactic to incite fear.
But the People’s Liberation Army have barracks in Hong Kong with 5,000 troops. If they wanted to attack, they could.
RELATED: Australia upgrades Hong Kong travel advice as China delivers chilling warning to protesters
Yet it seems China has perhaps learnt a lesson from the Tiananmen massacre. If they did resort to military violence, it would be an appalling PR move for China’s leader, Xi Jinping. The international damnation would be irreversible.
But it’s the financial risk of damaging Hong Kong’s trust and representation as China’s gateway to the world that is too valuable to compromise. Modern communism in China seems to be ruled more by money than Maoism.
That said, Beijing will never lose face by compromising with protesters.
If you look closely, tactics of manipulation and control are at play. They may not have tanks and troops, but they have a smarter strategy this time.
It is in the alleged pressure from the (predominantly mainland China) board of Hong Kong’s airline Cathay Pacific in the resignation of Cathay’s chief executive Rupert Hogg on Friday. The airline came under fire from Beijing after some airline staff took part in protests at the airport.
RELATED: Hong Kong conflict spills on to streets of Melbourne
It is in the rise of patriotism. Pro-Beijing protests are organised at the same time as pro-democracy marches; celebrities including the star of Disney’s new live action Mulan, Chinese-born Crystal Liu Yifei, have tweeted support for Hong Kong police; and volatile emotions have overflowed on Australian streets.
It is in the retribution. One student, who protested at the University of Queensland, was reportedly recognised in media coverage and claims his parents were visited and reprimanded by authorities in China. Student protest organisers claim they have received death threats and posters of their face and home address have been plastered on the streets.
It is in the infiltration, with protesters claiming undercover police dressed in pro-democracy black join their ranks only to incite violence.
It is in the intimidation, with troops massing at the border and protesters being labelled “terrorists” by Chinese politicians.
It’s in the fake news. Hong Kong politician Julius Ho held a press conference where he claimed “foreign fighters” had infiltrated the protests and as proof held up pictures of a western man, who was in reality just an Australian photographer covering the march who had forgotten to wear his high-vis press vest that day.
It is in the reframing of the fight, with Chinese authorities claiming protesters want independence, when they insist they do not. They want China to honour its commitment to Britain and Hong Kong of “one country, two systems”.
It is a promise that China has broken and should serve as a lesson to countries like Australia who are deeply entwined with the superpower — they play by their rules only.
Do You Hear The People Sing? from the musical Les Miserables has become the anthem of the Hong Kong protests.
And that is exactly what China is worried about. They can’t control the message of accountability that is spreading from the protests. The world is listening to Hong Kong.
And whatever China does next in response, we will all be watching.
Lucy Carne is editor of Rendezview
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