The Liberal Party is in deep trouble and Tony Abbott is trying to help stop the rot

The Liberal Party is in strife, and it’s Tony Abbott’s right, and duty, to give voice to the concerns of everyday supporters, writes Peta Credlin.

Tony Abbott is a Liberal Party son, and will not be silenced about its direction. (Pic: AAP Image/Mick Tsikas)

Before we get started, let me make a few things clear. It’s been 18 months since I worked for Tony Abbott, I don’t agree with him on everything (far from it) and I am not his keeper.

If I was known for one thing in politics, it was that I didn’t pull my punches. Regardless of how tough the message might have been, I wasn’t one of the usual gutless political types who said one thing to someone’s face and another thing behind their back. If anything, the country girl in me was too blunt. So when I took on this column I promised you that I would be as frank in print as I was behind closed doors in Canberra. And that’s not about to change.

The Liberal Party is in real trouble.

I don’t say this lightly. I’ve given 16 years to the Liberal Party and I’ve always been proud of what we stood for, even when it wasn’t popular. I didn’t make a career out of politics because I wanted to curry favour with some factional warlord to get a seat in parliament. I did it because I believe in the battle of ideas, I believe in reward for hard work, in smaller government, living within our means and the right to control our borders.

Despite some perceptions, the Liberal Party isn’t made up of millionaires, big business tycoons or the elite.

It’s a grassroots volunteer organisation with a membership of ordinary people who work hard, value the family and aspire to get ahead. They’re not politically organised like the Labor side with its formal union links and they’re not ideological haters like the Greens either. Right now, they despair at what’s happening in Canberra and the way the Coalition has squandered its 2013 landslide victory.

It might be hard for Malcolm Turnbull to hear, but former Prime Minister Tony Abbott has every right to voice the concerns of everyday supporters about the Liberal Party’s direction. (Pic: AAP Image/Mick Tsikas)

Since the election last year, I have spoken with, or got messages from, literally hundreds of ordinary branch-members and supporters; after all, I’ve been around for well over a decade so they know how to contact me.

Their near universal view is that the government isn’t focused on the issues that matter to ordinary people, life is getting too expensive, they’re worried about where the country is headed, they’re sick of the talk and want to see decisions made and implemented. Most importantly, whether they’re for Mr Abbott or Mr Turnbull, they’re still angry at the removal of an elected prime minister and the Coalition’s plummeting fortunes ever since.

With a stagnant primary vote at 35 per cent, and a one-seat majority, the government is one by-election from oblivion. The Labor Party is clearly the favourite to win next time but they’re not picking-up votes from Liberals; it’s Pauline Hanson who’s the real winner. People that usually support the Coalition don’t feel it’s listening to them and they’re taking their vote and walking off to One Nation. In some states, it’s more of a run. This is only going to get worse if Hanson wins seats, as predicted, in the QLD and WA elections because that’ll mean incumbency, greater resources and more professionals in the backroom to build a stronger party organisation than first time around.

Across the world, both the Left and Right are facing greater voter volatility than ever before but the immediate assault is on traditional parties of the centre-right. Populism is biting hard making it less about ideology and more about ‘us’ and ‘them’. This drift is particularly pronounced in large western democracies where leaders on the centre-right are reluctant to take on potent social issues such as immigration, identity politics and Islamic fundamentalism.

Look at the circus when a Sydney government school allowed Muslim boys to refuse to shake the hand of female teachers. Rather than say it was not on, un-Australian and as a state school, against the secular nature of our education system, the NSW Liberal government went into hiding.

Member for Warringah Tony Abbott has been out and about speaking to constituents, such as Selena Lucas and her sons, about their concerns. (Pic: Troy Snook)

Worse still, when Muslim leader Keysar Trad, President of the Australian Federation of Islamic Councils, upheld the teaching of the Koran that gives men the right to beat their wives, Malcolm Turnbull was missing in action. Is it any wonder the Liberals are losing their standing in the polls when the community doesn’t see them stand for anything, and others on the Right move into the vacuum?

As a former prime minister and now backbencher, Tony Abbott has every right to give a speech outlining what he thinks the Coalition needs to do to win back its supporters and govern in Australia’s national interest.

He is a son of the Liberal Party and knows what it’s like to take seats off Labor; you read the speech and make up your own mind. Of course, it would have been easier for everyone if he’d given his counsel in private, but the PM has made it clear he doesn’t want Abbott’s advice so it is hard to criticise him for speaking publicly.

Unlike others, he’s not a leaker, he’s not a backstabber and anything he says, he puts his name to it. If his critics are in any doubt, Tony Abbott is not going anywhere despite attempts to buy him off with a taxpayer job to leave the parliament. The time’s also passed for a frontbench role to harness his skill as a retail politician.

So as a former PM, with more than double the years of service of Turnbull, in parliament and as party leader, he believes he owes it to everyday supporters to give voice to the concerns they’ve raised with him.

I’ve got to be upfront and say I think he could have handled the news stories around his speech last week better. But I also know he’s just come back from a large number of marginal seat visits in the past few months so he’s got no illusions about the anger among Coalition supporters and party members. What I see, in part, is his unmasked frustration that after fighting for five years to win 25 seats off Labor, and bring an end to the disastrous Rudd/Gillard years, the Coalition copied Labor’s playbook, changed leaders and as a result, threw away 14 seats at the last election.

And it’s only got worse.

The continued slide in the Coalition’s popularity means the Liberal Party faces the real prospect that it will lose supporters and not be able to get them back. While the party has a liberal tradition as well as a conservative one, its greatest success has come when it’s governed with conservative instincts. Instead of avoiding the concerns of the base, the government’s got to fight them head-on. Yet despite what he says, the Coalition’s supporters don’t believe Malcolm Turnbull has a conservative bone in his body and regardless of his promises, Turnbull’s problem has always been a lack of authenticity.

It comes down to this; Malcolm Turnbull is desperate to hold on to power and Tony Abbott is desperate to hold the Liberal Party together. It’s not necessarily the same thing.