Miranda Devine: Give Malcolm Turnbull a chance

CONSERVATIVES have to accept the reality that Malcolm Turnbull is Prime Minister, writes Miranda Devine. He is the legitimate Liberal leader and he deserves a fair go.

YOU can’t blame Tony Abbott for being angry. His dream job was snatched from him, less than two years after he became Prime Minister, and then the usurper, Malcolm Turnbull, barely won the next election.

As the government loses Newspoll after Newspoll, the very metric Turnbull used to justify the coup, and the government struggles with many of the same problems his government faced, Abbott visibly seethes with the injustice of it all.

Those, like me, who argued against both the Abbott and Rudd coups knew that no matter how arrogant and error-prone the prime minister, nothing was worse than cheating voters out of the right to vote out the man they voted in.

Following Labor down the path of regicide was always going to end badly.

But conservatives have to accept the reality that Turnbull is Prime Minister. He won the election, albeit by one seat. He is the legitimate Liberal leader and he deserves a fair go.

He also is regarded by Liberal/National voters as the best leader for the Liberal party by more than two to one over Abbott.

According to an Essential Poll taken earlier this month, 36 per cent of Coalition voters think Turnbull is “the best leader of the Liberal Party”, while 19 per cent chose Julie Bishop, 17 per cent chose “Don’t Know”, and 15 per cent chose Abbott.

Tony Abbott is a man on a mission. (Pic: Jane Dempster/The Australian.)

Julie Bishop for Liberal leader? (Pic: Yusuf Sayman/The Australian)

Treasurer Scott Morrison came in at a measly three per cent and Peter Dutton, who is being touted as a possible replacement for Turnbull, came in equal last with Christopher Pyne at two per cent.

It’s not exactly a ringing endorsement of any of the six Liberals, obviously, but it gives the lie to the notion that the Liberal “base” can’t abide Turnbull and is clamouring for an Abbott restoration.

It’s not the base, but a small and very noisy subset of “delcons” which is growing frustrated, and nasty, as they are thwarted by reality.

For all their sturm und drang, Abbott’s standing in the poll has dropped four points since November, which is when he began his jihad in earnest. People don’t like division.

Even among those voters who go for “Other”, as in independents Hanson and Xenophon, “Don’t Know” was their preferred candidate for Liberal leader at 29 per cent and “Someone Else” came second at 25 per cent. Bishop brought up the rear at 18 per cent to Abbott’s 12 per cent and Turnbull’s eight per cent.

You can’t put too much stock in polls, of course, and most of the over-analysis of the Newspoll and Ipsos polls is a con job, ascribing momentous political import to tiny movements well within the margin of error.

Foolishly, however, the Prime Minister cited Abbott’s loss of 30 Newspolls in a row as the reason for his overthrow, and so polls now take on a disproportionate significance.

But for all the Turnbull-haters, who are every bit as venomous as the Abbott-haters, the government is doing OK, on any fair assessment.

In his deeds, if not his words, in many ways, Malcolm Turnbull has been a more conservative prime minister than Tony Abbott. He deserves credit for that. (Pic: AAP Image/Lukas Coch)

It’s not setting the world on fire, but it’s now getting legislation through the Senate. Turnbull has kept faith with conservatives with tough border control, and holding the line on the same sex marriage plebiscite. He listened to backbench complaints about Safe Schools, made changes, and won’t continue funding beyond June 30. He has also ensured the refugee intake from Syria and Iraq is three-quarters Christian and Yazidi.

In his deeds, if not his words, in many ways, Turnbull has been a more conservative prime minister than Abbott. He deserves credit for that.

But, unlike any other PM, Turnbull has no natural constituency. Labor and the Greens don’t like him because he’s a Liberal. Liberal wets view him as a sellout, and conservatives Liberals don’t trust him — they think he’s Labor Lite, and they can’t forgive him for knifing Abbott.

Tough. That’s the price of stealing the job.

The anger of Abbott supporters is understandable, but it’s raged too long.

The only outcome of their rage is a Bill Shorten government, which would do to the nation what Premier Dan Andrews has done to Victoria.

If you think Safe Schools was bad you ain’t seen nothing yet. Identity politics is the bread and butter of Shorten’s party. Forget border protection. Shorten’s promises, when the people smugglers crank up on Day One of his government, would be as worthless as Rudd’s. Look at how Dutton is demonised now, when he has turned back 30 boats, and closed most of the detention centres.

Another leadership coup simply would guarantee the Liberals lose the next election.

In any case, Abbott does not have the support inside the party to reclaim his job, and efforts by Turnbull-haters to bully the partyroom are pointlessly destructive.

Both are good men, much as their respective detractors try to paint their nemesis as pure evil. Both are Rhodes scholars, intelligent, patriotic, and believe in service and duty. They have been rivals from the start, and that is OK. Any job worth having will be contested.

They should be big enough to put aside their enmity, ignore the baying mob, and find a dignified way out of the impasse which otherwise threatens to destroy, not just the government and their reputations but the security and prosperity of Australia.