Sydney real estate: Suburbs set to defy property, home price downturn in 2023

These are the heartland suburbs set to defy Sydney’s property downturn in 2023. See the list.

These are the heartland suburbs set to defy Sydney’s property downturn in 2023.

They are the heartland suburbs set to defy Sydney’s property downturn in 2023.

Campsie heads a list of 10 Western Sydney postcodes set for price growth in the year ahead, according to the annual Canstar Rising Stars Report, powered by Hotspotting, exclusively revealed for the Saturday Telegraph.

Campsie’s unit market had the most potential, said Hotspotting publisher Terry Ryder, who selected the suburbs based on key metrics of sales activity, quarterly price growth, vacancy rates, rental growth and infrastructure spending.

“The Canterbury Bankstown (LGA) is a well connected market with relative affordability. Apartments at a fraction of the price of nearby houses have growing buyer demand,” Mr Ryder said.

Campsie’s unit market is full of potential, according to Hotspotting publisher Terry Ryder.

“In Campsie, the median unit price of $620,000 is less than half the median house price and unit sales outnumber houses four to one. The suburb has a green spine, is on the train line and is close to the M3/M5 East network.

“Vacancies have been trending downwards.”

Next on the list was Fairfield, followed by Georges Hall, Granville and Jamistown.

Ryder said the Fairfield LGA was another middle market with strong sales activity, affordability and tightening vacancy rates.

“The capital growth record is good,” he said.

“The location offers train links, green spaces, schools and proximity to jobs nodes.”

Georges Hall was another from the promising Canterbury-Bankstown region, while Granville’s links to the Parramatta CBD and schools, plus the fact sales activity had “doubled in 18 months” and long term growth was strong, had it well placed.

Jamisontown made the list for its proximity to Penrith and the new airport, plus major transport links.

Liverpool, at number six, was the next suburb to feature for units, ahead of Lurnea (houses), Marrickville (units), Rooty Hill (houses) and Westmead (units).

“The suburbs of the Liverpool LGA are well-placed for rising demand as the Western Sydney Airport and Aerotropolis roll out,” Mr Ryder said.

“Liverpool has one of Sydney’s key suburban CBDs, with medical, educational and retail amenities.”

The relative affordability of the suburb’s units, with a $485,000 median, was key to its potential, Mr Ryder said, noting that Sydney’s unit market in general had not performed with the same levels of success as houses, leaving room for them to play catch up now that the dust had settled from the pandemic.

“Sydney has a number of suburbs regarded as good and well located, where you might be paying $2 million for houses, but the median price for apartments might be $700,000.

That starts to become attractive to people who want to be in those areas but just can’t afford houses,” Mr Ryder said.

“The gap between prices for houses and apartments in Sydney widened to sort of record levels during that boom phase. I think we’re going to see the gap closing as demand for apartments becomes stronger.”

Fairfield is another top spot.

REGIONAL NSW LOCATIONS TO DEFY REAL ESTATE DOWNTURN IN 2023

One place where houses are still in demand is regional NSW, which had its own top 10 in the report.

Armidale claimed top spot in the regions, because of its vibrant and diverse economy.

“It’s an important centre for agriculture and tourism; it has a big education economy, with the University of New England; it’s part of the New England Renewable Energy Zone creating multiple big projects; and has major government operations,” Mr Ryder said.

“Armidale has houses in the $400,000s and 5 per cent yields, backed by 0.5 per cent vacancies.”

Next best was Dubbo, with similar metrics to Armidale, followed by Glen Innes, Goulburn, Leeton and Muswellbrook, with its affordability and proximity to Newcastle.

Also on the list were Parkes, Raymond Terrace and Tolland.

Meanwhile one of the real up and comers was North Tamworth, which Ryder described as a “rising regional city with more to offer than its country music tradition”.

Marrickville has been ranked as one of the best suburbs you should be buying a home. Rachael and Nathan Whitelum and their son Harry, 10, are selling up their home and staying within the area. Picture: Jonathan Ng

“It’s a transport hub and growth centre which attracts state government investment, including proactive advancement of renewable energy. It has a median house price below $500,000, plus the Tamworth Base Hospital, Tamara Private Hospital, a TAFE campus, Northgate Shopping Centre and many sporting fields,” he said.

Overall, the Canstar report identified 110 suburbs around Australia as rising stars and ranked 14 regions for their potential.

A year has made a huge difference for certain cities and regions, with last year’s number one, regional NSW, sliding to seventh on the new list, while Sydney dropped from fourth to 12th.

Mr Ryder said these two markets had experienced the sharpest rankings decline of any of the regions.

“This has coincided with a notable drop-off in the state’s economy,” he said.

North Tamworth is a big rising market. Cameron and Alice Young with their two children Riley, 4 and Blaire, 2.

“Sydney and many of the high-profile regional markets have become very expensive locations for housing in the recent boom and it is the top end markets that have declined noticeably.”

At the other end of the scale, Adelaide rose from ninth in 2022 to take out top spot in the 2023 report, followed by Brisbane and Perth, which came from eight and ninth in 2022 respectively.

Canstar editor at large Effie Zahos said affordability played a big role in Adelaide’s ascendancy.

“The median house prices in all of the Rising Star locations in Adelaide are half of what you would typically pay for equivalent locations in Sydney or Melbourne,” Ms Zahos said.

MCanstar editor at large Effie Zahos said a positive from the report was that there were still affordable pockets out there for buyers Picture: Tim Hunter.

“With further rate hikes on the cards, serviceability will become a major stumbling block for buyers. Not only will they need to be able to service the headline rates but banks will be factoring in a 3 per cent buffer.”

Ms Zahos said a positive from the report was that there were still affordable pockets out there for buyers.

“The good news is that 81 out of the 110 rising star suburbs have a median price under $600,000 and a further 10 are between $600,000 and $700,000,” she said. “If you factor in the possibility of another three 0.25 percentage point rate rises, the monthly repayments for a loan over 30 years on a $600,000 property with a 20 per cent deposit will be under $2900.”

To download the Rising Stars Report and see the list of the 110 ‘Rising Star’ suburbs and towns around the country, visit: Canstar.com.au/rising-stars-report