What could send home prices tumbling

Five key factors will determine whether the property market “springs forward or falls back” over the back end of 2023 and into next year.

Spring is here. So, let’s examine the five main factors that will either push the market up or down.

1. Interest rates

What the RBA does in September with rates is critical. If they raise them, sentiment will drop and so may prices.

2. Supply and demand

An over supply of listings will decrease prices. The best buying opportunities will occur towards the end of the year, when restless vendors will accept offers just to be sold by Christmas.

Tom Panos at a Sydney auction. Picture: John Appleyard

Data is indicating we are finally getting some new listings and this is set to continue in the next few months. Stock levels will peak towards the end of October, early November when long weekends and school holidays are behind us.

3. Global economic conditions

Economic stability or volatility in Asia, USA and Europe can influence foreign investment in Australian real estate. There is strong demand at the moment from international buyers which is positive for the Australian property market.

There is strong demand from international buyers at the moment. Picture: NCA NewsWire / David Swift

4. Government policies

Factors such as stamp duty, first homebuyer grants, zoning laws and state political policies such as proposed rent freezes can influence buying and selling decisions.

We have seen a big investor sell out this year due to the rate rises and there are concerns that the states may consider introducing policies that stop landlords from raising rents on a regular basis.

Units could be more popular in the future. Picture: NCA NewsWire / David Swift

5. Social factors

Population growth usually leads to increased demand for housing. Migration to Australia is growing at a much faster rate than new properties being built.

This is positive news for the property market. I am predicting units to be more popular in the near future as developers are not building as much as they used to due to increased rates, rising building costs and local government red tape which is slowing down the process.

One thing is for sure, buyers over the next three months will have more choices and I would consider this to be possibly the best opportunity to buy since the beginning of Covid.

* Tom Panos is an auctioneer, real estate coach and trainer with over 30 years experience in the industry.