Live Results Gilmore Election: Liberal source confident Constance has numbers in Gilmore
Gilmore is going down to the wire, as the race between an incumbent grassroots member and a Liberal heavyweight continues. Read our rolling coverage.
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Preference count bungle sees Constance’s lead cut - Tuesday, 7pm
Andrew Constance’s lead has been cut by around 160 votes after an error counting preferences with a batch of ballots from Gerringong was corrected.
It’s been a slow day on the counting front, with the total counted ticking up one per cent to 84.1 with the Liberal candidate leading the Labor incumbent Fiona Phillips by 104 votes (0.1 per cent).
Labor back in front narrowly in Gilmore after polling place transposition error fixed.
— Antony Green - elections (@AntonyGreenElec) May 24, 2022
Independent candidate and former Shoalhaven Greens councillor Nina Digiglio could shape as the kingmaker in the seat as she’s currently polling 4.34 per cent of the vote.
Ms Digiglio’s preferences are “going all over the place” according to one Liberal insider - sentiment expressed by Labor members in Gilmore on election night.
Constance sees lead slip as counting resumes, but only just - Tuesday, 1.15pm
The vote count in Gilmore resumed at 9am on Tuesday morning, but has so far heralded little change as the region remains a tight race between incumbent Labor candidate Fiona Phillips and the Liberal’s Andrew Constance.
Mr Constance continues to lead his Labor rival by 298 votes as of 1pm on Tuesday, with 83.1 per cent of votes tallied.
That number is down by just 8 votes from where it stood on Sunday evening.
With 51,079 votes, Mr Constance has benefitted from a swing of 13.2 per cent in 2022, with Ms Phillips trailing behind with 50,780 votes after preferences. Ms Phillips has been buoyed by 9.8 per cent of votes going to The Greens.
Both camps remain eerily silent. Neither side’s social media campaign pages have posted any new content since election day.
As for voters, many areas in the south of the electorate were almost entirely absent of election posters on Monday. Signs had been removed from trees, pickets removed from polling stations and front yards.
Gilmore shaping as election's tightest seat - Sunday, 6.30pm
Vote counters are trawling through the final 20 per cent of ballots in Gilmore with the seat split at straight down the middle.
With 81.3 per cent (or 103,857) of the vote counted, Andrew Constance leads by a slender 48 votes after preferences.
NewsLocal reached out to Fiona Phillips office this afternoon, but she declined to comment given “it‘s too close to call”.
A source in the Liberal camp has revealed they are very confident of winning back the seat.
The source has said they expect when the vote is declared, which may not be for another fortnight, Mr Constance will be around 450 votes clear of the incumbent.
Labor MP says Phillips is “still in it” - Sunday, 2.15pm
Neighbouring Labor MP Stephen Jones has said Fiona Phillips is “still in it” when speaking about his re-election in Whitlam on Sunday morning.
Mr Jones said it was a great nation-wide result for his party, before commenting on his colleagues, Alison Byrnes, after claiming the northern Illawarra seat of Cunningham, and Mrs Phillips who is ahead by less than 300 votes with 78.1 per cent of ballots counted.
“I think Australia has voted to end the climate wars,” he said.
“Australians want a better and more honest government that’s focused on the needs of the people and not political games.
“I am really pleased for Alison Byrnes, she will make a sensational Member for Cunningham and at this stage Gilmore is too close to call, but Fiona is still in it.”
Too close to all as Constance gives assessment of brutal night for LNP – Sunday, 9am
The outcome in Gilmore is still on a knife’s edge with more than 75 per cent of the vote counted.
At this stage, there has been a 1.6 per cent swing to the Liberals on a two-party-preferred basis with Andrew Constance’s first-preference swing a whopping 12.6 per cent.
Fiona Phillips, who was slightly behind for most of Saturday evening, poked ahead in the early hours of Sunday morning with the Labor incumbent now leading by 1370 votes.
Mr Constance said he’s “still hanging in” and was non-committal on whether he would put his hand up for a senior position in the Opposition given cataclysmic election defeat for the Coalition.
“I’m still hanging in, it’s going to take a few days because we still need postal votes to be counted,” he said.
“The community has been really positive, so I take a lot of heart out of that. I’ve had a 12 per cent swing my way with the primary which is good.
“I don’t think [I’ll stand for a shadow portfolio], I’ve got Gilmore to focus on if I get elected. It’s a pretty tight margin so there’s a lot of work to do so I don’t know. We’ll wait and see where the cookie crumbles - I don’t want to go counting chickens before they hatch.”
Mr Constance said regardless of which side of the divide Gilmore falls, the Liberal Party will need to do some soul searching after the horror result.
“That party has to be honest with its assessment of this result, but at the same time, at the core of all of this, the party exists because of the community,” Mr Constance said.
“It’s got to reflect the community and where it‘s at. It’s got to work with the community and recognize where it’s at and that’s what I’ll always do.
“Having lived through the experience of the Black Summer [bushfires] and when you see the people working together like they have I think that’s really important.
“I think we need to advocate for the community and we need to reflect on some of those principles that [Sir Robert] Menzies founded the party.
“I think there’s a lot of hope, there’s a lot of young people interested in the party.”
“I’m optimistic”: Phillips defiant as Gilmore result remains elusive - 11pm
In a fiery speech, Labor’s Fiona Phillips has refused to concede despite a substantial swing to the Liberals, telling supporters the Coalition believed they could “push over” local voters.
“I still remain very hopeful,” Ms Phillips told supporters at the St Georges Country Club.
“While we haven’t got a result locally tonight, we can be incredibly proud.
“My opponents thought that maybe this seat was a pushover, but I think we’ve shown that is not the case.”
Ms Phillips used her speech to hit out at comments made throughout the day by her rival, former Transport Minister Andrew Constance, including claims he made to have kept the campaign “positive”, and that Labor had matched the Liberals funding pledges
“We are the ones that were actually running the positive campaign,” she said.
“We can be incredibly proud of the commitments together we have made for the Gilmore electorate, which were not matched by my Liberal opponent.”
Those pledges include building a Birthing On Country centre in Nowra, disaster mitigation programs, and a new Headspace centre in Kiama, which Ms Phillips singled out.
“It‘s shameful my Liberal opponent did not match that commitment,” she said.
As of 11pm, Andrew Constance leads Ms Phillips 39.9 per cent to 36.6 per cent, with preferences from an 11.4 per cent vote for The Greens to go to Labor.
Constance urges supporters to “pull out an armchair” - 9.50pm
Andrew Constance has spoken for the first time after polls have closed with the former NSW Transport Minister arriving at a Liberal Party function at the Bomaderry Bowling Club just before 9.30pm.
Mr Constance told the party faithful to “pull out an armchair” before suggesting it could be days until the outcome in the seat was known.
“It’s time to pull out the armchair because we’re not going to know anytime soon,” he said.
“You’ll all be pleased to know that they won’t count Batemans Bay until the morning, but I would like to think we have the home ground advantage.
“With close to 50 per cent of people pre-polling we just won’t know, but the early indication is that’s positive.”
With the Liberals struggling in key seats elsewhere, Mr Constance urged his supporters to keep the faith.
“In terms of the nation, and I am sure there will be statements made shortly, but one thing I know about the Liberal Party is that it’s gotta reflect the community,” he said.
“It’s gotta connect with the community and it’s gotta be about the community.
“It’s a wonderful party that Robert Menzies founded and we should never lose sight of that.”
Former MP Gash “positive” about Gilmore - 9am
Joanna Gash held Gilmore for the best part of two decades, but now the former pollie is nervously waiting to see if the Liberals can win back the seat.
Speaking at the Liberal Party function at the Bomaderry Bowling Club the former Shoalhaven mayor said it’s a matter of wait and see.
“The mood here is we want to win,” she said.
“We need to win Gilmore and I have really been trying to see it come back to the Libs – now we’re just waiting for the result, but I’m positive.
“I had hoped it would be a little bit more advanced but some of the main booths haven’t come in yet so I’m waiting to see when they come in
Mrs Gash said the outcome in Sanctuary Point, where Andrew Constance spent most of Election Day, was disappointing with Labor winning 179 more votes than the Liberal Party.
“I don’t know, I just don’t know [what the outcome will be],” Mrs Gash said.
“I was disappointed with Sanctuary Point because we didn’t win that one, but we have certainly won some of the other important ones.”
Votes begin to be counted - 6pm
The vote count has begun in Gilmore in what is expected to be a close race between incumbent grassroots Labor candidate Fiona Phillips and Liberal heavyweight Andrew Constance.
Former NSW Transport Minister Andrew Constance is enjoying a big early swing in Gilmore as he looks to transition from state to federal politics.
With just under 6000 votes counted in the seat, Mr Constance has 40.3 per cent (2230) of the vote, with sitting member, Labor’s Fiona Phillips, taking 34.4 per cent (1904). The Greens’ Carmel McCallum is well behind in third with 13.2 per cent (732).
Gilmore was the only seat gained by the ALP in the 2019 election, with Phillips enjoying a significant swing. At this early stage, Constance, whose popularity with the community skyrocketed during the 2020 bushfire crisis, has a swing of more than 13 per cent.
The electorate, in the state’s far south coast, has 127,789 voters.
Ms Phillips has held the South Coast seat by a slim 2.6 per cent margin and has made a lot of promises leading into May 21 in an attempt to ward off the Liberal’s star candidate and former NSW Treasurer.
The Liberals held Gilmore for 26 years through the tenures of Joanna Gash and Ann Sudmalis before Mrs Phillips seized the seat for Labor in 2019.
Mrs Phillips won 36.2 per cent of the primary vote in 2019 when she overcame Liberal rival Warren Mundine with the preference flows seeing her win by around 5500 votes.
Nearly 40 per cent of the Gilmore’s 127,789 have already voted during the pre-polling period and those ballots will start to be counted from 4pm.
Follow the count live here:
Labor supporters on edge as Constance takes early lead
Nerves are high among volunteers and supporters of incumbent Labor member Fiona Phillips as early results show a substantial swing towards the Liberals in Gilmore.
With 47 of the 62 centres reporting their primary vote, and 41 reporting a preference count, the Liberal’s Andrew Constance leads with 39.4 per cent of the vote.
That is a swing of more than 10 per cent.
Ms Phillips trails behind with 35.9 per cent, with a 2 per cent swing to The Greens.
For Ms Phillips volunteers, the early results seem dire.
More than 20 volunteers gathered at the St Georges Basin Country Club as counting began under sullen skies on Saturday evening, but were tight-lipped on their party’s prospects.
Party supporters refused to comment on early gains made by Liberal candidate Andrew Constance, with only a small number stating that the count was still in its early stages.
So far, the booth that has recorded the highest number of votes for the Liberals is Shoalhaven Heads with 573 ballots cast.
For Ms Phillips, her biggest booth was Bomaderry which recorded 624 ballots.
Surprisingly, both independent Nina Digiglio and One Nation’s ghost candidate, Jerremy Eid, managed to secure more than 4 per cent of the vote each so far.
Clive Palmer’s United Australia Party has so far taken 2.9 per cent.
Snags, impersonators, and other antics: the lighter side to election day - 15.30
The prospect of political change carries with it a certain degree of severity, but for many voters, election day isn’t without its more jovial moments.
From the iconic democracy sausage to true blue Aussie larrikins, the crucial vote today in Gilmore was replete with happier moments, even as politicians made their final pitch.
Across the region, locals dusted off the grill and unpacked the bulk-bought sausages for the near-religious Aussie tradition of the sausage sizzle.
At Sanctuary Point Public School, nearby St Georges Basin Public School PNC stepped in to lend a helping hand after its school hall was damaged by the March floods and unable to host a polling booth.
St Georges’ PNC set about serving sausage after sausage to the hungry crowd, even providing Liberal hopeful Andrew Constance with a snag after he cast his ballot.
At Bomaderry Public School, sausages weren’t the only item on offer.
Dedicated volunteers served up an assortment of hot, quick-fried delectables including bacon and egg rolls. Though, this reporter is dubious of their value compared to snags.
In other areas across the state, there was outrage at a lack of the iconic snag.
In nearby Illawarra, the Unanderra Public School in the electorate of Cunningham failed to deliver on the hot, providence-ambivalent meat sausage.
In the electorate of Hume, the Tahmoor Public School was also snag-less on Saturday. So too was Granville Public School in the seat of Parramatta.
Nonetheless, Twitter account Democracy Sausage announced that the number of snag stalls had surpassed that in 2019. It claimed as many as 2229 booths stocked sausages.
Exciting news #democracysausage enthusiasts! We have now beaten the 2019 record for the number of stalls with sausage. pic.twitter.com/IyB2Vu0A1p
— Democracy Sausage (@DemSausage) May 21, 2022
It wasn’t all disappointment, though, when voters in Nowra were treated to an odd online video in the earlier hours of election day.
South Coast Labour Council secretary Arthur Morris made the odd decision of dressing up as Prime Minister Scott Morrison, replete with the now-infamous ukulele.
In the four minute video, Mr Morris approached volunteers outside the Nowra Uniting Church.
“Thanks everyone for being here, I’m a bit late,” Mr Morris said.
“Last night I forgot the words to my favourite song,” he adds, before breaking into song to the cheers of the gathered crowd.
ScoMo impersonator cracks out the Ukulele
Independent’s mission not over yet - 14:00
Fringe independent candidate Nina Digiglio doesn’t fancy her chances of finding success in today’s election, but said she remains steadfast in her mission to “wake up” voters.
The former Shoalhaven City Councillor and Greens candidate admits she is not a “political animal”, and faces stiff competition from Labor and the Liberals at the polls. But, she’s not particularly fazed.
“We’re on a different mission,” Ms Digiglio said outside the Bomaderry Public School on Saturday, referring to the platform of the mainstream parties.
“What’s missing in politics is true consultation with the people, making them aware of what governments are doing on the higher echelons.”
Ms Digiglio said most Australians weren’t aware the nation was a “corporation”, referring to a conspiracy promulgated online that the country was in fact owned by the United States.
“We need to get our country back,” Ms Digiglio said. “A while ago, we were sold to corporations.”
Ms Digiglio formerly ran for the Shoalhaven City Council as a member of The Greens, which now in cohort with Labor members, hold the balance of power in the local government.
She has been outspoken on her opposition to Covid vaccine mandates and has in the past claimed she has faced discrimination due to her refusal to receive the vaccine.
Since her stint with The Greens, Ms Digiglio said a lot has changed, claiming to have been driven by the “degradation” of the health system she saw as a registered nurse.
“With The Greens I felt they might have been the humanitarian party through their advocacy for the environment, but since the release of the vaccine … I had to step out of the realm of The Greens and any other political party and stand by my own truth,” she said.
Constance to “detox” from politics if leadership bid fails - 12.45pm
Andrew Constance has said he will “detox” from politics if he fails to secure the marginal seat of Gilmore today, as voting continues across the tightly contested electorate.
The former state Transport Minister cast his ballot at the Sanctuary Point Public School on Saturday, where he told members of the press he wanted to see politics changed.
“I think we’ve wasted enough energy on the wrong arguments,” he said.
“I think we’ve seen the nation not be as unified as it should be, and my intention is to try and bring people together.”
Mr Constance, who labelled himself a “progressive Liberal”, said the country could learn from Gilmore’s coming together during and after the Black Summer bushfires.
Dodging questions about the impact of Prime Minister Scott Morrisson on his campaign, Mr Constance said voters were primarily voting on local issues.
“The campaign is about community,” he said.
“The state of the roads here are a mess, and we made that a focus of the election campaign. They need to be rebuilt, and the council cannot go it alone.
“If you look at the issues that have been talked about, ultimately it‘s really important for the community to be able to have its say through the ballot box.”
The former state member for Bega said he was pleased that many of his own funding commitments had been matched by his opponent, Labor’s Fiona Phillips.
“That gives the community certainty around a number of key projects,” he said.
After a tight race, both major candidates could nab victory on Saturday.
Amid a campaign rife with mud-slinging, Mr Constance believed that both parties had remained cordial, and that he had delivered on his promise of a “positive” campaign.
“I think everyone’s been fairly positive,” he said.
“Given where we’ve come from over the past couple of years … its been pretty hard and people suffered a lot. We didn’t need a couple of people smashing each other up on the radio every day.
“I haven’t criticised my opponent at all. I’ve been respectful, and I think that’s out of respect to where my community’s at.”
Follow Election Day around NSW
Incumbent Phillips confident as polls open - 10.30am
Labor’s Fiona Phillips admits she’s in for a tough fight today as voters across the marginal south NSW seat of Gilmore go to the polls, but was confident in her party’s messaging.
“I‘m fighting for people in this community every single day,” Mrs Phillip said.
“We’ve got so many challenges (in Gilmore) that we need to change the government to bring about real change, whether that’s in housing, aged care, access to GPs or secure jobs.
“I‘m confident that we’ve done everything possible (to win): myself and my team.”
The incumbent member for Gilmore was flanked by posters of her Liberal opponent, the popular former state Transport Minister Andrew Constance, as she cast her ballot at the Bomaderry Public School on Saturday morning.
Mr Constance left state politics in 2021 to pursue a career in federal parliament, and has led a campaign focused on investments in infrastructure and jobs.
Despite record pre-polling in Gilmore, large numbers of voters still filed into the Bomaderry school when polls opened at 8am.
Among those gathered amid a sea of corflutes was former Labor minister and lead singer of Midnight Oil, Peter Garrett, who had previously campaigned alongside Mrs Phillips.
The outspoken activist said Ms Phillips had led a strong campaign.
“Fiona is a very strong candidate,” he said.
“She has shown herself to be a really outspoken, grassroots local member.
“I have seen in the period of time that I have spent here how committed she is to the community, how hardworking she is, and how she’s not just doing it for her own sake.”
Mr Garrett said Mrs Phillips was motivated by a belief that policies she believed would make life better for voters would only come to bear with a Labour government.
“We need integrity in our political system. We need faith in the future, including real action on climate change,” he said.
“We can be a much better country if we have a better government.”
Election Day in Gilmore preview - 8am
While The South Coast News will focus in on the camps of the two major parties, some attention should also be given to the minor parties and the Independents.
Their preferences could ultimately decide who wins the seat which may prove pivotal as to who takes control of the House of Representatives.
The Greens’ Carmel McCallum is running for the third time after polling around 10 per cent in the previous two elections.
Mrs McCullum will be buoyed by the success of the Greens during the recent Shoalhaven local government elections where a Green mayor in Amanda Findley was elected.
The United Australia Party only 3.4 per cent of the vote last time around, a figure their candidate Jordan Maloney will be hoping trends upwards.
Adrian Fadini (Liberal Democrats), Jerremy Eid (Pauline Hanson’s One Nation) and Nina Digiglio (independent/Shoalhaven Community First) are all first-timers in Gilmore.
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