Sydney to Hobart latest yacht race weather forecast has fast start for some and slow finish for others

It’s looking to be a fast start for all but a slow finish for some in the 2022 Sydney to Hobart. The long range forecast has both good news and bad for the fleet.

The old timber yacht Maluka is one of the smallest at 30 foot.

A fast start to the 2022 Sydney to Hobart is on the cards but for the mighty minnows of the fleet it could still be a slow slog south.

The long range forecast has winds from the north pushing the fleet down the NSW coast after the 1pm start on Boxing Day.

The entire 111 strong fleet will enjoy this romp down the coast under spinnaker in ideal sailing conditions.

The strength of the breeze and sea state will determine how long the retirement list is in the opening stanza of the race with high speed sailing carrying its own risks to both boats and bodies.

But further down the track - for the smaller, slower boats at least - there could be plenty of upwind sailing and tough times at sea.

Maluka of Kermande in a previous race. This year it will be skippered by Peter Langman.

Even the brain trusts on the supermaxis are unconvinced they will make it to Hobart without seeing some sort of change.

“It could get a bit lumpy off the Tassie coast for us and then pretty tricky,’’ said Andoo Comanche sailing master Iain Murray.

The long range forecast has yet to determine when, and how many changes are ahead for the fleet backmarkers but tough upwind sailing looks to be on the cards for them as well.

Stan Honey (left) is navigating Wild oats south and Justin Shaffer is navigator aboard Andoo Comanche. Pic: Supplied.

DEC 19: A race record in the Sydney to Hobart is back on the cards for any of the four supermaxis competing in this year’s edition of the famous ocean classic.

The long range forecast on Monday indicated longer period of nor’easterly winds the first afternoon, night and morning of the 628 nautical mile race.

Current routing for the frontrunners has them arriving in Hobart around one day and 11-12 hours after the 1pm start on Boxing Day,

The forecast would only need to chance a small amount for the yachts to make it under the race record time of one day, nine hours, 15 minutes and 24 seconds set by LDV Comanche back in 2017.

“It could be close. Right now I’d say not, but it’s a chance now,’’ said meteorologist Roger Badham.

The last part of the race could provide a roadblock to a new mark set with a change currently forecast which would slow the fleet’s charge to Hobart.

WILD OATS BACK IN THE MIX

Perpetual Loyal back in the 2013 race.

DECEMBER 18: World renown sailing meteorologist Roger Badham is as relieved as sailors in the 2022 Sydney to Hobart that the current ‘‘crazy’’ weather on the east coast of Australia will be gone by race start on Boxing Day.

Cold temperatures, days and days of strong, chilly southerlies, violent electrical storms and high rainfall has tarnished the lead-up to Christmas.

But the heat and more benign conditions are being forecast to return by Christmas Day along with a fast start to the famous Sydney to Hobart ocean race.

After a nasty start to the 628 nautical mile classic last year where a staggering 38 yachts were forced out with damage and crew injury, this year’s opening stanza looks far less action-packed.

And while a spinnaker start looks unlikely, a fast downwind ride down the NSW coast on December 26 appears on the cards.

Wild Oats X1 racing past the Organ Pipes in 2014. Pic: Brett Costello

Badham, who works with world speed record teams, America’s Cup campaigns and Olympic sailing teams, said weather models are still failing to agree on the long range forecast and there is much details still to be determined.

But he said the early indications are for the bluewater classic to start in pleasant light to moderate nor’easterlies which will see the fleet to fly down the coast at pace once yachts clear Sydney Heads and turn right to Hobart.

The worst storm in the history of the race was in 1998 when six men lost their lives.

“It looks a much better race than a few days ago,’’ Badham said on Sunday, eight days before the 1pm start on Sydney Harbour.

“It will still be a few days before we get a real handle on what they can expect.

“But it is looking fast at the moment, just not record breaking fast.

“And there’s a lot of uncertainty in Bass Strait and down the east coast of Tasmania.”

This uncertainty could result in a number of outcomes, including areas of light winds for the big boats and potentially some nasty weather for the smaller boats in the 100 plus fleet.

In 2017 LDV Comanche set the Sydney to Hobart race record of one day, nine hours, 15 minutes and 24 seconds.

In 2022 the same yacht, renamed Andoo Comanche, has line honours favouritism and will be skippered south by Sydney’s John Winning.

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