Sydney to Hobart 2021 weather: first night survival test with potential for early retirements

It will be a first night survival test that could determine the winner of this year’s Sydney to Hobart with long hours of stomach-churning and potentially boat-breaking racing.

Ichi Ban on her way to winning the overall honours in the 2019 Sydney to Hobart.

The supermaxi that makes it through the first torrid test of the Sydney to Hobart with the least damage, drama, issue and crew fatigue will likely claim line honours.

That’s the opinion of Scallywag skipper David Witt as the forecast for long hours of upwind slog firmed on Christmas Day.

It will be wet, uncomfortable, testing and challenging sailing and hard on both boats and bodies as the fleet pounds its way south .

“It’s important to eat, drink, keep your body fuelled for what’s ahead,’’ said Witt, the skipper of one of three 100-foot supermaxis in the race with LawConnect and Black Jack.

“It’s not going to be pleasant for a lot of people.’’

The David Witt skippered Scallywag in a lead-up race.

Top forecaster Roger Badham is predicting long hours of upwind sailing with the little boats in the 94-strong fleet copping it the worst.

“The longer you are out there the more risk there is of breaking things,’’ Badham said.

“The could be a bit of destruction on the NSW coast.

“It will be 20 knots, peaking at around 30 knots.’’

While unpleasant, the conditions have nothing of the strength of the 1998 storm which ripped the fleet apart, causing widespread destruction and claiming the lives of six men.

One good bit of news is the fact Badham believes it is unlikely the fleet will experienced thunderstorms.

“I don’t think there are any storm’s at sea, juts showers.’’

LawConnect is the supermaxi expected to enjoy the tough start to the race most.

“That’s our best conditions. We love a good hard southerly,” said owner Christian Beck.

“It gives us an ability to get out into the wind. Obviously, we don’t want the boat or any boats to break, but our boat has bashed through so much of that stuff, it’s pretty unlikely to break.”

TWIST IN SYDNEY TO HOBART FORECAST

DECEMBER 24: Sydney to Hobart crews will battle tough and testing conditions from the start of the race on Sunday with bruising and potentially gear-breaking weather forecast for the first afternoon and night - along with rain and a potential thunderstorm at sea.

Traditionally sailors who make it to the start would expect to enjoy some super fast, adrenaline-rush downwind sailing before being clobbered by a southerly in the world famous ocean race.

But in a twist, this year the southerly will come through before the start with the fleet then bashing and crashing their way to Hobart for long hours before a break in the pounding on bodies and boats.

ROLLING COVERAGE: Latest news on race

Crews will be busy aboard boats this year with strong winds followed by lighter, trickier conditions.

And it is these conditions which could see a number of early retirements in the 2021 race which has already defied numerous Covid scares and restrictions to go ahead.

“The first night out is the one where you will get the retirement,’’ said sailing meteorologist Roger Badham.

Badham said weather models currently indicate a spinnaker start for the race before yachts battle a 20 to 25 knot south sou’easterly once they clear Sydney Heads and turn right towards Tasmania.

As the fleet races south they will encounter rougher seas.

It’s an unusual race in that the windiest time is in the first 12 to 18 hours,’’ Badham said.

They are then in for a tricky time in Bass Strait and down the east coast of Australia.

Comanche at sea in the 2017 race. Pic: Rolex.

If yachts survived the southerly winds without gear damage or crew issues, they will be busy plotting their course through a minefield of light winds in the second half of the 628 nautical mile race.

“You are going luck and skill in about the proportion of 90 to 10 per cent,’’ Badham said.

In these conditions a race record is definitely off the menu.

Instead, line honours contenders such as LawConnect, Scallywag and Black Jack could take two or more days to make it into Hobart.

The race record was set by the 100-footer Comanche of one day, nine hours, 15 minutes and 24 seconds in 2017.

Early indications are a small yacht could dominate the race for the overall corrected time honours.

But there were bigger boat skipper happy with the forecast.

“We have optimised out boat to be an allrouder with more eggs in the basket for upwind so we are excited about the forecast,’’ said URM skipper March Ashley-Jones, who will steer the 72-footer south.

“The smaller boats may not have the winds at the end they need. But then again they could have that magic ride home.’’

DECEMBER 20: Crews will have their work cut out for them in the upcoming Sydney to Hobart with multiple sail changes on the cards in what could be one of the trickiest and most exhausting races south in recent times.

The forecast is still being refined but sou’easterly winds up to 20 knots early in the race and then periods of ultra light breeze later on look to be on the menu for the 2021 edition.

This will see both navigators and crews working overtime in the 628 nautical mile races with numerous sail changes required to cope with the “gear changes’’ triggered by changing breeze.

But there is potential for a colourful start to the race on December 26 if current forecasting holds true.

Willow is one of the contenders for the overall honours.

Sou’easterly wind could see some yachts fly spinnakers as they escape the confines of Sydney Harbour when the starting canon fires at 1pm on Boxing Day.

While crews will be bounced around as yachts race down the coast, across Bass Strait and to the finish on the Derwent River, there is nothing in the current forecast too serious for the 90 plus fleet.

In 1998 100 knot winds and 10m seas slammed, triggering a major marine rescue operation and claiming the lives of seven sailors.

“It’s will be tricky because of the variable wind,’’ said yachting forecaster Roger Badham.

“The first night at sea is looking like 15 to 20 knots at the most.’’

LawConnect tactician Chris Nicholson said the current forecast will be taxing on crews.

“Our bow team told us that in the Cabbage Tree (a recent overnight race) they did 22 sail changes,’’ he said.

“That’s a lot of sail changes on a 100-footer.’’

“It puts a lot of pressure on crews.’’

UNCOMFORTABLE SYDNEY TO HOBART ON THE CARDS

DECEMBER 17: Lumpy, bumpy and fast at times - just not record-breaking - is the long range forecast for the 2021 Sydney to Hobart returning after its late cancellation in 2020 due to Covid-19.

Race officials have confirmed the famous ocean classic is still forging ahead after Tasmania opened its borders earlier this week.

But if the long range forecast for the event holds true, skippers will face a testing time in the 628 nautical mile race to Hobart which started back in 1945 when nine crews set sail in the inaugural event.

Yachts could make a quick exit from Sydney on Boxing Day after the 1pm start.

Disagreement between three major weather models mean the detail of the forecast is still to be written but a general overview is that it will be testing and “uncomfortable”.

But, just over a week out, there is some good news for the Boxing Day start and spectators planning to hit the harbour to farewell the 90-strong fleet.

“There is still a lot of uncertainty and three models are all different,’’ said leading sailing meteorologist Roger Badham.

“I do favour the most reliable model which is the European one and that is it’s a nor’easterly for the start on Boxing Day and then a southerly chance the first afternoon or night.

“On the other models it's the next day.

“There is still a lot of activity going on. A lot more to be written.’’

Scallywag and LawConnect are two of the line honours favourites.

This forecast would see the fleet charge down the NSW coast at high speed before being slowed by headwinds.

But 20-30 knot sou’westerlies in Bass Strait could see the frontrunners speed up as they reach across the notorious body of water to the east coast of Tasmania.

“It will be fast, but not record-breaking,’’ Badham said.

“The smaller boats will suffer more than the big boast because they will spend more time in the southerly.

“It will be quite uncomfortable.’’

Badham said there is no indication there will be a repeat of the heinous conditions of the deadly 1998 race where it stormed for days when a Bass Strait low exploded across the racecourse, whipping up mountainous seas and winds around 100 knots.

A crewmen aboard LawConnect on the bow sprit for a sail change during a lead-up race.

As the countdown continues, the sailing fraternity appears most concerned about staying Covid free for the race.

All skippers and their crewmates must be double vaccinated and produce a negative Covid test done within 72 hours of the 1pm start.

The race was last year cancelled less than a week before it was due to begin on Boxing Day due to border restrictions and quarantining rule changes in the wake of growing coronavirus numbers on Sydney’s northern beaches.

Sailors this year have been staying away from large social gatherings with many top crews deciding to finish their race preparations more than a fortnight before the race start on Sydney Harbour to prevent infection.

The fleet lacks international flavour due to the coronavirus pandemic but still has Scallywag, representing Hong Kong, in the race south.

It also boasts a large fleet of two-handed boats which are doing the race for the fist time in 2021.

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