NSWRL Junior Reps run home: Every finals situation analysed ahead of final round
With one round of the NSWRL junior reps competition remaining, some teams are safe while others are crunching the numbers. We look at the post-season race for all four grades this weekend.
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There’s just one round remaining in the NSWRL Junior Reps season with a host of teams experiencing mixed fortunes.
Some have already punched their finals tickets, while others have the calculators out trying to determine a path to the post-season.
LISA FIAOLA CUP
1. Canterbury - 16 points +322
vs St George
2. Illawarra - 14 points +122
vs Cronulla
3. Parramatta - 12 points +116
vs Penrith
4. Central Coast - 12 points +84
vs South Sydney
5. Wests Tigers - 12 points +68
vs Manly
6. Syd Roosters - 10 points +84
BYE
7. Newcastle - 10 points +62
vs North Sydney
In quite a stunning final round, all teams in contention will come up against teams in the bottom six.
Currently the only guaranteed spot is Canterbury who have nailed down top spot, with Illawarra also certain to finish in the finals, needing a win over Cronulla to ensure they come in second.
The Eels have a healthy differential buffer ahead of their Thursday clash with the Panthers.
The Roosters have a bye, meaning they are certain to finish on 12 points with a differential of +84.
Central Coast and Wests Tigers can avoid that being an issue by winning their games. If they lose, the Roosters will leap above them.
That leaves the Knights, who will need to win by 23 points or more to overtake the Roosters and earn a finals place.
TARSHA GALE CUP
1. Illawarra - 16 points +282
vs Cronulla
2. Syd Roosters - 14 points +212
BYE
3. Canterbury - 14 points +184
vs St George
4. Manly - 12 points +112
vs Wests Tigers
5. Newcastle - 11 points +90
vs North Sydney
6. Cronulla - 11 points — 60
vs Illawarra
The top six is set with Cronulla holding a three-point gap to seventh.
Illawarra has wrapped up top spot, while the Bulldogs need to win by 29 points or more to leapfrog the Roosters into second position, and they will be favoured to do so against the bottom-placed Dragons.
Manly can’t finish above fourth, but can slip down to sixth if they lose to the Wests Tigers and results go against them.
HAROLD MATTHEWS CUP
1. Western Suburbs - 16 points +136
vs Parramatta
2. Canterbury - 15 points +176
vs Melbourne
3. Parramatta - 15 points +115
vs Western Suburbs
4. Syd Roosters - 12 points +72
vs Cronulla
5. Cronulla - 12 points +55
vs Syd Roosters
6. Manly - 10 points +12
vs Central Coast
7. New Zealand - 10 points -25
vs St George
8. Penrith - 8 points +4
BYE
9. Central Coast - 8 points +3
vs Melbourne, vs Manly
10. Newcastle - 8 points +0
vs Balmain
The top three is set, but the positioning will be determined on Good Friday when the Magpies and Eels clash.
Wests finishes first with a win and likely third with a loss, while the Eels secure a top-two spot with victory.
Canterbury simply has to beat Melbourne and it will earn a round one bye.
The Roosters and Sharks will play off for fourth spot, while the loser could potentially miss the finals, although a strong differential makes it unlikely.
Sixth spot is completely up for grabs, especially with the Central Coast still having a postponed home game up their sleeve.
New Zealand will know a potential margin it needs to win by if it is still a qualifying chance on Sunday.
Penrith needs a miracle - Manly to lose, the Central Coast to lose its game against Melbourne, New Zealand to lose and Newcastle to either lose or win by three or less points.
SG BALL CUP
1. Syd Roosters - 16 points +137
vs Cronulla
2. St George - 12 points +112
vs New Zealand
3. Newcastle - 12 points +106
vs Balmain
4. Canterbury - 11 points +96
vs Melbourne
5. Parramatta - 10 points +64
vs Western Suburbs
6. Illawarra - 10 points +30
vs North Sydney
7. Western Suburbs - 9 points +26
vs Parramatta
8. Cronulla - 9 points +20
vs Syd Roosters
9. Canberra - 8 points -40
vs South Sydney
An unbeaten season will see the Roosters claim the minor premiership with ease.
The race for second comes down to St George and Newcastle. They are locked on 12 points with just six points differential in their for and against.
With the Dragons playing on Sunday, they’ll know the margin of victory they will need to win by should the Knights account for the winless Tigers.
Canterbury’s odd points total should see them lock down a spot in third or fourth provided they take care of Melbourne.
Parramatta vs Western Suburbs is shaping as the key game of the round. A win for either side guarantees a finals spot. A loss to Wests and they’re out, while an Eels loss and they’re sweating on the Steelers losing to North Sydney.
Cronulla and Canberra need miracles to advance and huge points differential swings.
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