Jersey Flegg: Run home for all contenders, hot and not teams, predicted finalists for 2023 season

The Jersey Flegg run to the finals is heating up with just six rounds remaining. We look at the run home of all finals contenders, who’s hot and not, plus who we predict will make the finals.

The stars of the Jersey Flegg competition. Pictures: NRL Photos

With just six rounds remaining, the race for the Jersey Flegg finals is well and truly heating up.

With a top-five system in place, nine teams are still in the hunt to feature in the post-season.

Coming into the final stretch of the season, we look at who’s hot and who’s not, the run home of all contenders, plus who we think will be playing finals football.

WHO’S HOT, WHO’S NOT

The St George Illawarra Dragons are breathing fire at the moment, winning four of their last five to sit right on the cup of the five. Wins over Melbourne and Penrith in recent times have them in good form, plus a game against the Storm this weekend could see them leapfrog their rivals into fifth.

Benjamin Rumble of the St George Illawarra Dragons. Photo: NRL Photos/Brett Costello

Four losses in a row have the South Sydney Rabbitohs on the slide. They’ve dropped to seventh and their points differential has taken a big hit in the process. Luckily for them they have a favourable draw on the run home, which can see them get back into the picture.

Five-straight wins have the Canterbury Bulldogs in contention for the minor premiership. The Bulldogs have been taking all before them heading into a key clash with Penrith, seeing them open up a five-point gap between second and third.

It’s been a tough period for the Newcastle Knights with five consecutive defeats to their name. It’s seen them drop from seventh mid-year through to dead last on the ladder and out of finals contention. They’ll now get the chance to blood some younger players with next year in mind.

Braith Alexander of the Sydney Roosters Jersey Flegg team. Picture: NRL Photos/Gregg Porteous

THE RUN HOME

1. SYDNEY ROOSTERS

Record: 14-3 (+246)

Run home: Eels (H), Bulldogs (A), Sea Eagles (H), Bye, Eels (A), Tigers (H)

The benchmark throughout the season so far, a win over the Bulldogs ensures they finish the regular season as minor premiers and earn a week off in the first round of the finals. A classy unit who can very easily remain unbeaten over the next six weeks.

2. CANTERBURY BULLDOGS

Record: 12-4 (+159)

Run home: Penrith (A), Roosters (H), Rabbitohs (A), Knights (A), Raiders (A), Sea Eagles (H)

Guaranteed of a top-two finish with the run home they have, and they remain a chance of knocking the Roosters off top spot, with their round 22 clash the key. They’ll need to produce some big scores though if they are to make up the points differential, but are looking like they will be a force in the finals.

Connor Mason of the Penrith Panthers. Picture: David Hossack/NRL Photos

3. PENRITH PANTHERS

Record: 10-1-6 (+43)

Run home: Bulldogs (H), Sharks (H), Bye, Sea Eagles (A), Storm (A), Eels (H)

Currently sit five points clear of sixth spot so should be safe. Their draw is challenging though and the Panthers have been mixing their form of late. They have the Sharks hot on their tails in competing for a top-three spot, making their next two weeks vital if they want two bites at the cherry in the finals.

4. CRONULLA SHARKS

Record: 10-7 (+46)

Run home: Sea Eagles (H), Panthers (A), Bye, Raiders (H), Tigers (A), Knights (A)

A nice run home means they should qualify fairly comfortably. But they’d want to improve on recent outings that have seen them drop four of their previous five games. They’ve shown enough class this season, and have a win over the Roosters and Bulldogs to boot, to show they can contend for a title.

5. MELBOURNE STORM

Record: 9-8 (-2)

Run home: Dragons (A), Eels (H), Bye, Tigers (A), Panthers (H), Raiders (H)

The next two weeks will be crucial for Melbourne. If they can knock off the Dragons and Eels coming into the bye, that should just about be enough for them to get in. If they can’t however, the swoopers will be there to take their place. In need of confidence after losses in three of their last four outings.

6. ST GEORGE ILLAWARRA DRAGONS

Record: 8-9 (-42)

Run home: Storm (H), Sea Eagles (H), Eels (A), Rabbitohs (A), Sea Eagles (A), Bye

If they can knock off the Storm this weekend, they’ll be heavily favoured to make the finals. Their form has been outstanding and they have a favourable draw. A post-season spot is there if they want it, and judging by how they’ve been performing, the Dragons absolutely want to make an impact in this competition.

Ethan Ferguson of the NSW Blues U19s and South Sydney Rabbitohs. Picture: Scott Davis/NRL Photos

7. SOUTH SYDNEY RABBITOHS

Record: 7-1-9 (-97)

Run home: Knights (H), Tigers (A), Bulldogs (H), Dragons (H), Knights (A), Bye

Their fate could well be in their hands. Wins in all five games should be enough to see them qualify. That will need to see them knock off the Bulldogs and fellow fringe side the Dragons on that run home. Will come in as favourites in their next two, but not playing well enough recently to suggest they can knock off the better sides.

Eels halfback Joshua Lynn. Picture: Thomas Lisson

8. PARRAMATTA EELS

Record: 7-10 (-36)

Run home: Roosters (A), Storm (A), Dragons (H), Bye, Roosters (H), Panthers (A)

They’ve drawn the short straw with their run home, with all five remaining fixtures against teams above them on the ladder. Two games against the Roosters makes their task incredibly difficult. Need to win at least four to have a realistic shot of qualifying, and we just can’t see them doing that.

9. MANLY SEA EAGLES

Record: 6-10 (-63)

Run home: Sharks (A), Dragons (A), Roosters (A), Panthers (H), Dragons (H), Bulldogs (A)

Along with Parramatta, Manly has a torrid run home with five games against the top four sides. They’re going to need to cause some mighty upsets on the run home to get themselves in the race, but even that mightn’t be enough. They’ve won four of their last five, but this is a stretch too far.

PREDICTED FINALISTS

1. Roosters

2. Bulldogs

3. Sharks

4. Panthers

5. Dragons