2019 NSW election: Punters back Labor into favouritism
Bookmakers report the weight of money has forced the ALP into favourite to win the state election after the Coalition opened a solid frontrunner last year.
Northern District Times
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Punters are backing in a change of government at next month’s NSW election, with the weight of money forcing the Labor Party into favouritism.
TAB spokesman Gerard Daffy today reported a dramatic swing in the election market, where the Coalition opened as a $1.40 favourite and the ALP at $2.80 on November 12 last year.
Since then, Labor has firmed into a $1.55 favourite after a bet of $2000 was placed on it to win at $1.65 last Friday, while the Gladys Berejiklian-led Coalition have drifted out to $2.35.
Mr Daffy said the move for the ALP came just before Christmas, with 66 per cent of the money now invested on a Labor triumph at the March 23 poll.
“There have been periodical pushes for the Coalition, and that is understandable given they are the incumbents and hold a very big lead as far as seats go heading into this election,” he said.
“But having said that, incumbency doesn’t ensure you will get re-elected in state politics in Australia with several major upsets, particularly in Victoria, over the last 20 years or so.”
Labor will need to flip 13 seats to have a majority and requires an 8.7 per cent swing to achieve this goal.
History is against the Liberal/Nationals Coalition. It has been unable to win three consecutive elections since Sir Robert Askin won four, between 1965 and 1973.
“As the election day draws closer, policies will be crucial in regards to where people place their money as this one appears to be on a knife’s edge, so any good or bad stories about either of the two major parties will shift the market,” Mr Daffy said.
Other bookies have Labor as slight favourites to win the election. Ladbrokes has Michael Daley’s team at $1.70, ahead of the Coalition ($2.25), Greens ($26) and One Nation ($301).
Sportsbet has Labor ($1.90) and the Coalition ($1.95) running neck-and-neck after posting markets on individual seats.
One of the seats to watch will be Ryde, where development is set to prove a big issue.
Victor Dominello, who has held the seat since 2008, will be challenged by Labor Mayor Jerome Laxale.
The Finance Minister holds an 11.5 per cent margin, but the money has arrived in the past week for Cr Laxale to cause a boilover in the third ballot-box meeting of the pair.
He’s firmed from $5 into $4 with Sportsbet, with Mr Dominello easing from $1.12 to $1.24.
Elsewhere, the seat of Auburn, where disgraced former Labor leader Luke Foley will stand aside, is expected to be retained by the ALP.
Lynda Voltz, who will resign from the Upper House to stand as the Labor candidate, is at $1.20 to beat Liberal candidate and small business owner Christina Kang ($4.50).
Treasurer Dominic Perrottet (Epping) and Planning Minister Anthony Roberts (Lane Cove) are both at the unbackable odds of $1.01 to coast to victory in their respective blue-ribbon seats.
Mr Perrottet, who will be vacating as the Member for Hawkesbury, will be challenged by the ALP’s Alan Mascarenhas, a $14 outsider.
At Parramatta, incumbent Liberal MP is at the Winx-like odds of $1.12 to beat Labor’s Liz Scully ($6), while in Granville, Julia Finn ($1.30) is expected to retain her seat against veteran Liberal Tony Issa ($2.75).
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