Australian cricketers to rise from the Ashes as England battles to keep Urn
ASHES CONFESSIONS: First up, a confession - I'm a Pom. Don't judge me.
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First up, a confession: I'm a Pom.
Secondly, and with that in mind, something feels very wrong about the build-up to the first of this year's Ashes series.
A lifetime of hammerings against the all-conquering Australian Test side of the late nineties and 2000s makes it tough to discount an Australian cricket side, regardless of rankings or results.
This time around it seems the roles are reversed.
It's David Warner in a Walkabout not Andrew Flintoff in a pedalo.
Australia are now desperately clutching at spin-bowling straws wherever they find them. Ian Botham, not Glenn McGrath, is predicting a whitewash.
It's that last point that is most concerning. Complacency has been a consistent issue for this England side since the unmatchable 2005 Ashes triumph ended Australia's 18-year possession of the urn.
The return series in Australia saw a confident England side mauled 5-0 by an Australian team we were assured were ready for retirement - it was the first 5-0 series win since 1921.
The pattern has re-emerged of late. Impressive series wins over Australia and India in 2011 and the rise to number one in the world rankings was followed by a shambolic 3-0 defeat to Pakistan in the United Arab Emirates.
This year's series win in India - the first since 1985 - was followed by a fortunate 0-0 draw in New Zealand.
All that being said, objectively England are a superior side to Australia - only Michael Clarke would be truly confident of a place in a composite team - and home advantage should swing the pendulum still further in their favour.
Still, as an Englishman who doesn't remember an Ashes win until 2005, there's a nagging feeling that it's still Australia and they're still dangerous.
To compete, one of the quicks needs to perform, Clarke will have to maintain - and even surpass - his exceptional form since assuming the captaincy and one or two other players will have to show more than they have to date.
What do you think of Australia's chances in the Ashes? Comment below.
BATSMEN
Captains Alistair Cook and Michael Clarke are both exceptional talents who have improved as batsman since taking the helm.
Many in England still harbour doubts over Cook's perceived negativity in the leadership role but Clarke carries a heavy burden as easily his side's greatest hope.
Although Kevin Pietersen, still England's most devastating player, hasn't played international cricket since February he is expected to return for the Ashes.
Joe Root already looks like a 50 Test veteran. Jonathan Trott, despite the idiosyncrasies, is about as reliable as they come.
Ian Bell, though frustrating, has demonstrated his class over a number of years.
Only Nick Compton, Cook's new opening partner, is a concern - he's failed to make an unanswerable case to replace former skipper Andrew Strauss.
In contrast, Clarke aside, this is an Australian batting order in turmoil, which is the reason England are such heavy favourites.
Warner's form and disciplinary issues are well documented.
Watson wants to open but won't. Phil Hughes has consistently struggled against English attacks - although he has tried to address his technical failings.
Ed Cowan, while stubborn, doesn't convince at the highest level.
Chris Rogers has a good record and form in the English County Championship but remains a 35-year-old with one Test to his name.
Usman Khawaja has yet to convince.
BOWLERS
Australia's best hope for the series seems to be to prompt an English collapse (not a particularly rare occurrence) on a seam-friendly Trent Bridge pitch in the first Test and gather momentum from there.
Fitness concerns constantly hang over all the pacemen bar Peter Siddle but Ryan Harris, Siddle, Jackson Bird and James Pattinson all look like bowlers designed for English conditions.
Mitchell Starc is a little more of a wildcard and the comparisons with Mitchell Johnson seem inevitable. Both often lack control but can win a game in a session.
Broad and Anderson are well established as England's opening bowlers. Both have bowled well of late, are experienced and generally disciplined.
If all Tests were played in England, Anderson would be the best in the world. The third seamer will probably be Steven Finn.
His potential is undoubted but form is an issue. Tim Bresnan is a capable and competent deputy who can make useful late-order runs.
Nathan Lyon is a decent off-spinner treated poorly by the Australian selectors, who seem to have adopted the spectacularly unsuccessful scattergun approach employed by England in the 1990s.
Graeme Swann - along with Saeed Ajmal - is the best spin bowler in world cricket.
WICKETKEEPERS
Matt Prior has a claim to be the best keeper-batsman in the world right now and is the best Englishman in living memory at batting with the tail.
Brad Haddin must play above Matthew Wade - if only to add some experience to the visitors' line-up. Neither are in Prior's class.
All seems pretty straightforward from an English perspective, right? I still haven't convinced myself it's going to be as easy as it looks.
What's your score prediction? Comment below.