State Election 2023: Climate 200 polling reveals Liberals lead in tight contests for Sydney seats

Polling conducted for Climate 200 has shown the Liberals would narrowly hold on to several battleground electorates if they faced a challenge from ‘teal’ independents at the upcoming state election.

Polling conducted for Climate 200 has shown the Liberals would narrowly hold on to several battle ground electorates if they faced a challenge from ‘teal’ independence at the upcoming state election.

Seat-by-seat polling of north shore and northern beaches electorates has revealed Lane Cove, North Shore, Pittwater and Wakehurst would be retained by the NSW Liberal Party if challenged by a ‘Teal’ independent such as Zali Steggall or Kylea Tink at the March election.

The polling, undertaken by Redbridge Group on behalf of Climate 200, was carried out by a phone survey of 4274 people in the electorates.

The results have pointed to tight races in the electorates including North Shore where 32.8 per cent of respondents said they would vote for an independent like Kylea Tink – just 0.5 per cent short of the Liberals.

On the northern beaches, Manly would be won by an independent with 36.8 per cent of the vote compared to 29.1 per cent for the Liberals, while the Liberals would retain Pittwater by 0.7 per cent and Wakehurst by 4.1 per cent.

Climate 200's Simon Holmes a Court has supported the search for candidates.

Of the seats surveyed, the voting gap is widest in Lane Cove with the Liberals sitting on a comfortable lead of 32.8 per cent compared to 23.7 per cent for an independent.

North Sydney’s Independent is a community group which played a key role in flipping the federal North Sydney electorate from blue to teal at the May election after selecting Kylea Tink, who went on to unseat Liberal Trent Zimmerman.

It is currently seeking candidates for the Lane Cove and North Shore electorates, which are currently held by Liberal MPs Felicity Wilson and Planning Minister Anthony Roberts.

North Sydney’s Independents played a key role in Kylea Tink’s successful Federal campaign.

North Sydney’s Independent co-founder Kristen Lock believes the new polling is a sign the seats can no longer be seen as safe Liberal territory.

“I think the polling shows it’s a worthwhile challenge to be putting up an independent in those seats,” she said.

“The sense of North Shore and Lane Cove being safe seats for the Liberals is being challenged.

Felicity Wilson currently represents North Shore.

“The polling isn’t disheartening and to think we’re that close without naming a candidate yet is a very positive sign.”

Cost of living was the number one issue concerning voters across the north shore region followed by climate change and integrity in politics, according to the polling.

North Sydney’s Independent has recognised there were challenges with running a state campaign as opposed to a federal campaign, including optional preferential voting at the state level.

The independent campaign will challenge Lane Cove, held by sitting MP Anthony Roberts.

State independents would also be unable to amass the same level of funding generated by the federal Teal independents due to electoral spending caps of $140,000.

Lane Cove MP Anthony Roberts said his campaign would focus on projects the State Government had delivered to the community including upgrades to local wharves, $10 million for park upgrades, $8 million for schools, and road safety improvements.

“I have faced four elections and I have never taken any of them for granted,” he said.

“The polling shows that people in Lane Cove are engaged in the political process, which is one of the reasons I love representing Lane Cove.

“However, the polling that counts will be held in March and I look forward to taking my record of representing and delivering for the community.”

Climate 200 has publicly backed the search for candidates in Lane Cove and North Shore with Climate 200 convener Simon Holmes a Court recently taking to social media to make a public call out for willing candidates to challenge both electorates.