The people who could replace Tony Abbott as Warringah MP
THE question gathering momentum is who could take Tony Abbott on in Warringah? And if he was to step down which Liberals could claim the seat he’s held for 24-years?
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TONY Abbott’s environmental stance and his refusal to vote on a same-sex marriage plebiscite appear to have put him at odds with the Warringah electorate
Combined with a perceived undermining of former Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull has seen some in his own party question if he is the right man to be at the helm of Warringah.
The question gathering momentum is who could take him on? And, if he was to step down who could claim the seat he’s held for 24-years, if he was to vacate it?
It would take an incredible amount of internal pressure to have the former Prime Minister walk away from his job to allow the door to open for another Liberal, but if he does there are a few names that could go into the mix.
Likewise, a number of alternatives - including independents, the Greens and Labor - are champing at the bit to get a shot at Mr Abbott.
There is a fear among some of the Liberal Party’s grassroots members that the constant infighting could lead to the emergence of a promising independent.
THE POSSIBLE CHALLENGERS:
MICHAEL REGAN:
The Northern Beaches Mayor, an independent, is seen as the most likely person to dethrone the Warringah MP of 24 years.
Mr Regan would not speculate on whether or not he would run, but has the profile to cause real issues for the Liberal Party.
One senior Liberal source even suggested some in the party would be happier to work with the mayor than Mr Abbott.
“There is a big part of the Liberal Party that tick tack with Regan, there is behind the scenes movement to get Michael Regan to run as the member for Warringah.”
He has the political clout, leading the third largest council in NSW, with a majority of independents over a Liberal bloc.
DEAN HARRIS:
On the non-conservative side of politics, Dean Harris has been endorsed as the Labor candidate.
At the 2016 election Labor candidate Andrew Woodward claimed 12,800 votes. If Mr Harris was to be successful, it would require a 34.68 per cent swing in his favour.
He was the first to launch his campaign, with former Labor Premier Kristina Keneally by his side at the Balgowlah RSL in July.
“Every day it seems we get another out-of-touch opinion from our current member. It’s a frustrating example of a political environment that’s become so coloured by self-interest and skewed by dogma that it makes us all shake our heads in disbelief and say, ‘Surely we can do better’,” he said at the campaign launch.
“It’s why I’m standing for election in Warringah,” said Mr Harris “To give this community a genuine choice, and a chance to have their voice heard.”
KRISTYN GLANVILLE:
The Greens candidate at the last Federal election, Clara Williams Roldan, was the alternate party on the two-party preferred vote, taking the mantle from Labor.
The Greens candidate for the next election was recently announced as Kristyn Glanville.
If the environmental lawyer can build on The Green’s previous performance and not get cannibalised by a large group of independents she could shake things up.
On her website, she says: “I advise government and businesses on environmental protection, renewable energy, waste, and major infrastructure projects.
“I have also acted pro bono for homeless people and asylum seekers. Before working as a lawyer, I worked as a respite carer for special needs children.”
JAMES MATHISON:
The former reality television host was a thorn in the side of Mr Abbott at the last Federal election in 2016.
The Liberal primary vote at that election dropped by 9.19 points to 51.65 per cent. Mr Mathison attracted the large majority of that vote. If a similar chunk was to be taken from Mr Abbott’s support base at this election, his seat could be at risk.
It is not clear if Mr Mathison will stand for another tilt at Warringah, but sources close to him say he is “considering his options”.
RON DELEZIO:
The father of double-crash victim Sophie Delezio quit the Liberal Party in disgust and ran as an independent for Mike Baird’s vacant seat last year.
The 64-year-old has twice run as a federal Liberal candidate in Sydney seats, but cited his disillusion with factional warfare led him to quit the party in 2017.
The disdain of political party infighting could be seen as an advantage for Mr Delezio, who lives in the electorate at Balgowlah Heights.
Mr Delezio set up his charity, The Day of Difference Foundation, with his wife Carolyn, after their daughter Sophie was critically injured when an out-of-control car crashed into her childcare centre in 2003. He no longer runs the charity.
WAITING IN THE LIBERAL WINGS:
MIKE BAIRD:
Could the former NSW Premier make a return to the political stage as the Federal MP for Warringah?
His father Bruce transformed a successful NSW Parliament career into federal office and there is no suggestion Mike could not do the same.
After his meteoric win at the 2015 State Election, the Liberal Party leader was championed as a future Prime Minister.
Mr Baird has consistently said he would prefer to keep out of politics since resigning as premier in January last year.
And with the announcement that he had been promoted to chief customer officer in charge of NAB’s consumer banking, it would be hard to remove him from the rumoured $2.8 million salary.
However, he has done just enough to keep in the spotlight - could the allure and power of politics draw him back into the fold?
ALEX DORE:
The former president of the Young Liberals is said to be loyal to Mr Abbott.
However, if for some reason he was to stand aside, Mr Dore has been considered by party insiders as the future Warringah MP.
“He is the guy people would say would be the frontrunner if Tony Abbott went out,” one senior Liberal source said.
“He is seen as an up-and-coming Liberal, seen by many as the next Federal member.”
WALTER VILLATORA:
A long time Abbott-backer, and until September was the president of the Warringah Federal Electoral Conference, at which time he was moved in a factional push by the moderate side of the party.
He was leader of the democratic reform movement, which later became known as the Warringah Motion.
The motion was successfully passed at a special party reform convention held at Rosehill Racecourse in July last year. However, the one-member, one vote plebiscite-style of preselection was voted down by the Liberal Party’s NSW State Executive.
About 90 people are believed to have previously picked candidates in the Mackellar and Warringah electorates — half of whom were local.
The other half of preselectors come from the party’s head office.
NATALIE WARD:
Natalie Ward would likely have the support of the moderate, or left leaning Liberal members.
Formerly a lawyer and member of the Liberal Party’s State Executive, she is a NSW upper house MP.
She filled a casual vacancy caused by the resignation of Greg Pearce in November 2017.
It is believed she would be interested in a tilt at the seat of Warringah.
Her husband, David Begg, is a key ally and business partner of Liberal kingmaker Michael Photios.