Premier Gladys Berejiklian braces for backlash against Liberals in Manly by-election

PREMIER Gladys Berejiklian says she is expecting a big swing against the Liberal Party in the seat of Manly as voters head to the polls to pick a replacement for Mike Baird.

Premier Gladys Berejiklian and Liberal candidate for Manly James Griffin in Manly. Picture: Adam Yip.

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PREMIER  Gladys Berejiklian says she is expecting a big swing against the Liberal Party in the seat of Manly as voters head to the polls to pick a replacement for Mike Baird.

“The average swing — and sometimes it has been higher against governments — is 20 per cent. In Orange it was even higher than that,” Ms Berejiklian said.

“So I am bracing myself for huge swings against the (Coalition) government.”

Liberal candidate James Griffin goes in with Mr Baird’s inflated popularity in 2015, where he received almost 68 per cent of first preference votes.

Ron Delezio at the Greater Manly Residents' Forum. Picture: Martin Lange.

And with a strong field of candidates including independents Kathryn Ridge and Ron Delezio, as well as a strong Greens vote expected for Clara Williams Roldan, the Premier told reporters she was “anxious”.

The seat had been held by independents since 1991 before Mr Baird claimed it in 2007. And the Greens scored the second-highest vote to the Liberals in the most recent Warringah federal and Manly state election.

“I expect people to vote a bit brasher when they go to the ballot box because they know you will still be Premier on Monday and people don’t mind giving you a message,” Ms Berejiklian said.

“I think it will come down to the wire, I really do. I am not willing to make a call on the seats.”

Greens candidate Clara Williams Roldan at Manly. Picture: Adam Yip.

It is likely Manly residents have started to feel voter fatigue, with today’s by-election signalling the third time they have been to the polls in two years.

Another election for Northern Beaches Council has been scheduled for September.

More than 53,000 voters are registered in Manly but a lower turnout than usual is expected for the by-election.

The NSW Electoral Commission has warned those eligible that fail to vote could result in a $55 fine.

Kathryn Ridge Greater Manly Residents' Forum hosting the main four candidates in the Manly by-election

While pre-poll votes began slow, with about 2000 recorded before Thursday, by noon yesterday they had reached almost 5000.

And a NSW Electoral Commission spokesman said the numbers were on track for the expected 6000 early votes.