NSW election 2023: Michael Regan, Judy Hannan poised to gain Liberal strongholds
Two stunning independent upsets look on the cards in once iron-clad Liberal strongholds as the party lost ground in seats once thought untouchable. See the reaction and numbers.
Manly
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Two independent candidates, at different points of Greater Sydney, were poised to celebrate historic wins, prizing the Liberal party away from traditional strongholds.
Popular Northern Beaches independent mayor Michael Regan looked set to topple Toby Williams in Liberal-held Wakehurst, once iron-clad secure under former Health Minister Brad Hazzard.
Mr Regan, who cited local issues such as the proposed contentious Lizard Rock housing development at Belrose, the privatisation of the local public bus network and the government’s decision to delay the Beaches Link tunnel, is set to attract more than 53 per cent of the two-party preferred vote.
“I’m overwhelmed and filled with mixed emotions,” he said. “It’s humbling, I can’t wait to get stuck in.”
Mr Regan said he “never aspired to be a politician” but Wakehurst residents resonated with his local track record.
“I think they thought enough is enough, it’s time for change,” he said.
Judy Hannan, the only Teal south of the CBD, looked set to produced perhaps the upset of the night, in a razor-thing tussle to oust Liberal incumbent Nathaniel Smith with a 9 per cent swing against the government in Wollondilly.
Ms Hannan, a first-time candidate, said Wollondilly made its voice heard, although she sits on about a 0.9 per cent margin with almost 50 per cent of votes counted.
“I’m feeling proud and elated, this is my community and it’s us banding together,” she said.
She echoed Mr Regan’s sentiment: voters wanted change after over a decade of Liberal government and local representation.
“Our community simply said: enough is enough.”
Teals, independents chipping away at Liberal north Sydney strongholds
Along the Liberals’ north shore heartlands, a block of Teal Independents had, at the very least, turned once Liberal strongholds into marginal seats.
Further north, in outgoing Liberal minister Rob Stokes’ seat of Pittwater, another seat was on a knife-edge with an upset expected.
Climate-200-backed independent Jacqui Scruby sat on 54 per cent of the two-party preferred vote late on Saturday night.
Ms Scruby’s camp earlier on Saturday told The Sunday Telegraph it was “looking like a very close race”, with about a one or two per cent margin, between her and Liberal Rory Amon.
There was less success for Climate-200-backed Helen Conway in the North Shore and Victoria Davidson in Lane Cove. Australian billionaire and mining magnate Gina Rinehart had lended her hand to fend off Ms Davidson, passing out meat pies to Liberal volunteers for incumbent Anthony Roberts.
“I was in shock – I did not have that on my bingo card,” one Ms Davidson campaign insider said.
However, the optional nature of NSW’s voting system handicapped both candidates, they claimed.
“I was confident we’d be marginal in both, I’d be more confident if we didn’t have optional preferential voting,” the insider said.
At the time of publication, both Ms Davidson and Ms Conway’s camps said “it will go down to the wire”.
“But making these seats marginals, for us, is a significant win in its own right,” one campaign insider said.
Larissa Penn, not backed by the climate group, looked poised to go one better than her 2022 by-election attempt with the possibility of snatching the once safe seat of former Premier Gladys Berejiklian from Liberal Tim James in Willoughby.
In Manly, Liberal minister James Griffith was expected to retain his seat against a strong showing from Teal independent Joeline Hackman.
Liberals vacated conservative space, says One Nation
One Nation’s Tania Mihailuk, second on the party’s upper house ticket, was in Camden, where a strong party showing looked set to split the right vote, allowing Labor to steam through the middle and unseat Liberal incumbent Peter Sidgreaves.
“I really feel the Liberals lost this election, as opposed to Labor winning it,” Ms Mihailuk said.
“Traditional Liberal voters were left disappointed in the direction of the party – they tried to out-green the Greens and failed.”
Ms Mihailuk said the Liberals had “vacated the conservative space in NSW politics”.
“One Nation has benefited from that and also shown we’re the mainstream party,” she said.
“By the end it was a one-man Dominic Perrottet band. They’re decimated, they need to do some soul searching.”
Ms Mihailuk said “strong showings in western Sydney” for One Nation were encouraging, although the party’s swing was steady, as opposed to spectacular, registering just under a two per cent swing across the state on late Saturday night.
One of the party’s strongest showings was in the Hunter, in the electorate of Cessnock, where candidate Quintin King was tracking on 14 per cent, and the party on 27 per cent in two-party preferred, with about 25 per cent of the votes counted.
Shooters, Fishers and Farmers come back from the dead
The Shooters, Fishers and Farmers, derailed in December after the resignation of two lower house MPs, were put back on track with the party’s “biggest ever advertisement campaign”, particularly in the bush, upper house MP Robert Borsak said.
“We had an unbelievable level of interest and recognition this year,” Mr Borsak said from the electorate of Goulburn.
The seat, held by Liberal Wendy Tuckerman, was on a knife-edge on Saturday night, in part down to a roughly seven per cent swing for the Shooters, who syphoned off first-preference votes from the Coalition.
“We had a really good reception down there and we had a good feeling,” Mr Borsak said.
“I think we’re looking eventually at a 13 or 15 per cent swing.
“We’ve been very well received.”
Mr Borsack said Shooters and Fishers voters had “12 years of not good government, as far as we’re concerned”.
“I can’t think of one single thing that they did that was good for our voters,” Mr Borsack said.
“But what’s going to replace it, what comes next – another term of this government would have been terrible for us, but we’re not sure what Labor could bring.”
Greens hanging on in Balmain
The Greens were holding onto Balmain for dear life in the late hours of Saturday night, where Labor’s Philippa Scott was enjoying a 9 per cent swing, but seemingly not enough to dislodge the Greens.
With about 50 per cent of the vote counted, the Greens’ Kobi Shetty held a slim 2 per cent margin in retiring Jamie Parker’s seat.
Labor had thrown thousands of dollars, Prime Minister Anthony Albanese, and the kitchen sink at winning back the Inner West heartland electorate, where the party was formed, but it seemed like it was set to just miss out on the seat.
One campaign insider said while “there was no chance of Jenny Leong going backwards in Newtown”, the party were enthused by their showing for Ballina incumbent Tamara Smith and returns across the coastline, especially down south.
With Labor increasingly creeping towards a slim majority, however, it seemed the party’s hope of playing queen-maker in any minority administration had been quashed.
EARLIER
Mining magnate and Aussie billionaire Gina Rinehart was on hand in Lane Cove in support of Liberal incumbent Anthony Roberts, handing out leaflets and, sources said, meat pies to Liberal volunteers.
One campaign insider for Teal challenger Victoria Davidson said they “didn’t have that on my bingo card” and that Ms Rinehart arrived with Australian flags waving from her car.
“Everyone was in shock when she arrived,” the insider said.
The ‘Teal Independents’ on Sydney’s north shore are locked in a knife-edge battle with the Liberals for north-harbour dominance as smaller parties were also hopeful of strong heartland returns in the final minutes of polling.
In Pittwater, where Liberal Rory Amon is battling to hold off teal independent Jacqui Scruby, the campaigns on the ground told of a “very close race”, with the eventual margin believed to be about one or two per cent.
Further south, in the North Shore, volunteers for teal Helen Conway believe Mosman to be close to an even split, “which could bode well for other parts of the electorate”, although reiterated they were not taking anything for granted, but were confident whatever happened the seat would now become a razor-thin marginal.
In Lane Cove, where Ms Davidson is attempting to unseat Liberal minister Mr Roberts there was anecdotal strong support in the area’s centre, although the campaign team was aware the areas of Gladesville and the part of the electorate that borders Bennelong would prove tougher to crack.
“There’s been positive feedback everywhere, but Gladesville as expected has been the more challenging area,” one campaign insider said.
“But we’re confident we’ll be marginal, and we’re hopeful.”
In Manly, Joeline Hackman said ‘it was great to see democracy up close” and reported “fantastic feedback”.
The campaign team expects the margin with Liberal incumbent James Griffin to be “very close”, and that there was a groundswell of support in the northern part of the electorate, and Dee Why and Curl Curl.
One Nation’s Tania Mihailuk said the party could stand to benefit from the Liberals “vacating the conservative space in NSW politics”.
“They tried and failed to out-green the Greens and there are a lot of Liberal voters who are dissapointed with the direction of the party,” she said.
“One Nation could stand to benefit in that regard, and we’ve shown we're now a mainstream party.”
The party was expecting strong showings across west and southwest Sydney, and in Camden, where Ms Mihailuk was leafleting during the day.
The Greens were hopeful of a strong showing by Newtown incumbent Jenny Leong, and were enthused, but taking nothing for granted, in Balmain, where Kobi Shetty was on the ground attempting to replace retiring incumbent Jamie Parker, ahead of Labor’s Philippa Scott.
Greens campaign insiders said how-to-vote cards in Balmain were “flying out” with booths running out and having to ask for more.
Liberal how-to-vote cards in Balmain, which hit the news when it was revealed they had preference Greens over Labor, “were nowhere to be seen”, said one Greens insider.
One campaign insider said while “there was no chance of Jenny going backwards in Newtown”, the party were enthused by their showing in the South Coast and were watching it closely.
Shooters, Fishers and Farmers upper house MP Robert Borsak was down in Goulburn campaigning for the party and expected a “13-15 per cent vote share” for the party, given a “really good reception”.
“We got a remarkable amount of recognition down there,” Mr Borsak said, although noting they were “taking nothing for granted”.
“We’ve had an unbelievable level of interest compared with last time there.”
Mr Borsak said while the party had to reorganise after the defection of three MPs late last year, the party’s “biggest ever ad campaign” had aided their recovery in the bush.
“We’re not taking anything yet for granted, but we’re feeling pretty good,” he said.
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