Federal election, Mackellar: New poll suggests independent upset on the cards

Sophie Scamps, the election candidate backed by the Climate 200 philanthropy group, said new poll figures point to a possible upset win in a safe Liberal seat.

A new poll, commissioned by Climate 200, suggests so-called “teal” independent Sophie Scamps has a shock chance of snatching Mackellar away from the Liberals at the May 21 election.

The safe seat, held for two terms by Jason Falinski, has been in Liberal hands since its inception in 1949, but looks set to go to preferences, based on the poll results.

Climate 200, which is funding Dr Scamps’ campaign and a number of other candidates including the sitting Warringah MP Zali Steggall, said it supported those committed to a “science-based approach to climate change and to restoring integrity in politics”.

The independent candidate for Mackellar at the federal election on May 21, Sophie Scamps, at a campaign concert at Avalon on May 1. She says figures from a poll commissioned by the campaign suggest she’s in with a chance of winning the safe Liberal seat. Picture: Supplied

But the former longstanding MP for Mackellar, Bronwyn Bishop, said on Monday that the popular Mr Falinski would be victorious.

“He will win,” Ms Bishop, a former federal government Minister and Speaker in the House Of Representatives, said.

Ms Bishop who held the seat from 1994 to her retirement just before the May 2016 election, said: “I think the people in Mackellar will vote Liberal and they’ll vote for Mr Falinski”.

Former Mackellar Liberal MP, Bronwyn Bishop, pictured delivering her valedictory speech in the House of Representatives at Parliament House in 2016, said the sitting Liberal MP Jason Falinski “will win”. (AAP Image/Sam Mooy)

The former politician and now political commentator on Sky News, said the “teal” independents, including Dr Scamps, should tell voters who they were funded by and who they would support for prime minister in a potentially hung parliament.

“They are on about transparency, I think they should be transparent,” Ms Bishop said.

“But they are clearly candidates of (Climate 200 founder) Simon Holmes a Court.

“Simon says, and they do.”

Dr Scamps’ campaign released the poll of 834 Mackellar voters, conducted by UComms, on May 4. Based on the voter responses, it showed Dr Scamps would attract 31.2 per cent of the primary vote. Mr Falinski would win 32 per cent of the first preference vote.

Liberal MP for Mackellar Jason Falinski held his official federal election campaign launch at Cromer Golf Club on May 1. Picture: Supplied

Dr Scamps’ camp said she was now in a “statistical dead heat” with the sitting MP “with a strong majority of preferences being directed her way”.

At the 2019 election, Mr Falinski attracted 53.01 per cent of first preferences with a swing towards him of 1.8 per cent. He holds the seat by a two-party preferred margin of more than 13 per cent.

The new UComms poll showed Labor grabbing 15 per cent of the primary vote, the Greens (8.6 per cent), the United Australia Party (3 per cent) and One Nation (2.6 per cent). Seven per cent of those polled were undecided.

This is the second poll in Mackellar during the campaign.

Dr Scamps said the new figures showed a seven point gain in primary support for her over the past month.

She put the swing to her partly down to an increase in support from female voters (up nine points) and young voters (up 17 points).

Dr Scamps said it showed campaign momentum was still building.

“While the most important poll is the one that takes place on May 21, what these results show is that the community here in Mackellar is excited at the prospect of having genuine independent representation in federal parliament.

Mackellar Liberal MP Jason Falinski at Dee Why rock pool. (AAP Image / Adam Yip)

“Immediate and meaningful action on climate change, a federal anti-corruption commission with teeth, support to help local businesses grow and recover from the pandemic, equality and improved health and mental health services are the issues that people tell me matter most to them at this election.”

Mr Falinski said on Monday that the only polls that count “are the ones that opened today and will be open up until 21 May”.

“This is a choice for the people,” he said.

“It is a choice between certainty and uncertainty.

“What you know about the government and what you don’t know about these Climate 200 candidates who won’t tell you what they will do in a hung parliament, and how they are going to do it.”

Mr Falinski said a hung parliament meant “more power to the Greens who want an inheritance tax, to abolish the private healthcare rebate, slash private school funding and cuts to defence spending.”

“Voters need to ask themselves, do we really want to risk all of that in a time when our economy is recovering from a pandemic and we face real tensions abroad.”