Why the meeting between North Korea’s Kim Jong-un and South Korea’s Moon Jae-in must succeed
PRIME Minister Malcolm Turnbull has praised Donald Trump for bringing about historic talks between North and South Korean leaders, after their landmark announcement to denuclearise the Peninsula.
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PRIME Minister Malcolm Turnbull says US President Donald Trump “absolutely” deserves credit for bringing about historic talks between the leaders of North and South Korea.
South Korean President Moon Jae-in and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un yesterday engaged in a historic meeting in the demilitarized zone separating the two Koreas, seeking an agreement to establish peace on the peninsula.
“I’ve given him that credit because Donald Trump has taken a very, very strong, hard line on the denuclearisation issue and he has been able to bring in the support of the global community and, in particular, China,” Mr Turnbull told reporters in Sydney today.
Please do not forget the great help that my good friend, President Xi of China, has given to the United States, particularly at the Border of North Korea. Without him it would have been a much longer, tougher, process!
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) April 27, 2018
It comes after Trump praised the historic meeting between North Korean leader Kim Jon-un and South Korean President Moon Jae-in, and thanked his Chinese counterpart in helping to make it happen.
In a tweet, President Trump hailed the “great help” of his “good friend” Chinese President Xi Jinping in bringing the two countries together.
“Please do not forget the great help that my good friend, President Xi of China, has given to the United States, particularly at the Border of North Korea. Without him it would have been a much longer, tougher, process!”
KOREAN WAR TO END! The United States, and all of its GREAT people, should be very proud of what is now taking place in Korea!
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) April 27, 2018
After a furious year of missile launches and Nuclear testing, a historic meeting between North and South Korea is now taking place. Good things are happening, but only time will tell!
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) April 27, 2018
The two Korean leaders came together to sign a landmark denuclearization agreement and announced they would work with the United States and China to declare an official end to the 1950s Korean war.
China is North Korea’s sole major ally but it has supported a series of United Nations sanctions to punish Pyongyang over the nuclear and missile tests.
But while President Trump said the meeting is a moment to be proud of, he did cast some doubt over whether the diplomacy would last.
“After a furious year of missile launches and Nuclear testing, a historic meeting between North and South Korea is now taking place,” he tweeted. “Good things are happening, but only time will tell!”
LANDMARK ADDRESS
Following the meeting, Kim Jong-un addressed the world’s media — possibly the first time a North Korean leader has ever done so — and said that he and South Korea’s President Moon Jae-in will make sure the landmark agreement reached yesterday won’t fall through.
According to Bloomberg, Kim said that closed doors can be opened with determination and that history doesn’t create itself. He also expressed hopes for a new future and thanked the media for their attention.
“We are not a people that should be confronting each other ... we should be living in unity,” Kim said, reports CNN. “We have long waited for this moment to happen. All of us.”
While Moon said: “Chairman Kim Jong Un and I have agreed that complete denuclearisation will be achieved, and that is our common goal.”
The vague statement by Kim Jong Un and President Moon to achieve “a nuclear-free Korean Peninsula through complete denuclearisation” kicks the issue down the road to a much-anticipated summit between Kim and US President Donald Trump in coming weeks.
Even so, the Koreas’ historic summit on Friday might be remembered as much for the striking images of two men from nations with a deep and bitter history of acrimony holding each other’s hands and grinning from ear to ear as they crossed back into the North and then returned again to the South after Kim first made history by walking over the border to greet Moon.
Kim was the first North Korean leader to touch southern soil since the end of the Korean War.
The pair will sign a peace treaty later in the year to formally end the Korean War.
The announcement comes after the two leaders exchanged words and shook hands on the outskirts of the no man’s land that divides their two nations for the first time.
Here's the full English text of the "Panmunjom Declaration for Peace, Prosperity and Unification of the Korean Peninsula": pic.twitter.com/8sMijU1MYR
— James Griffiths ðŸ‡ðŸ‡°ðŸ´ó §ó ¢ó ·ó ¬ó ³ó ¿ (@jgriffiths) April 27, 2018
The leaders had another round of private talks outdoors before they planned to make a joint announcement in a sign they may have a breakthrough. Yonhap reported that a statement is coming, but its contents were not clear.
Yonhap also reported Moon and Kim were going to sign the Panmunjom Declaration at 5:40pm local time.
The two were photographed earlier as they shook hands over demarcation line, where Moon told Kim: “I am happy to meet you.”
It is the first time Kim has ever stepped over the border. Moon also briefly stepped into the North before walking back.
Moon’s step across to the North was not planned, South Korea’s Blue House confirmed.
“I came here determined to send a starting signal at the threshold of a new history,” Kim told his host Moon Jae-in in the Demilitarized Zone, promising a “frank, serious and honest mindset”.
The two leaders walked together to the Peace Palace amid a full military honour guard.
They then signed a guest book at the Peace House.
Kim hailed the beginning of a new era of peace, ahead of a summit with his Southern counterpart.
“A new history begins now — at the starting point of history and the era of peace,” read the message Kim wrote in the guest book.
Moon Jae-in told the North’s leader that he hoped to see a “bold agreement” as they began their summit Friday.
“I hope we engage in frank talks and reach a bold agreement so that we may give a big gift to the whole Korean people and the people who want peace,” Moon said.
It’s the most weaponised place on Earth.
Kim Jong Un's message in guestbook at #InterKoreanSummit: "A new history begins now - at the starting point of history and the era of peace." pic.twitter.com/PwAbibgmlW
— Josh Caplan (@joshdcaplan) April 27, 2018
Kim also made an offer to Moon on Friday, saying he was willing to visit him in Seoul “any time if you invite me”, Moon’s spokesman said.
Kim made the remarks as the men chatted ahead of their summit.
According to the official, Moon told the visitor he could “show you scenes far better than this if you come to the Blue House”, with Kim responding: “Really? I will go to the Blue House any time if you invite me.”
Heavily armed troops, tanks and artillery have tensely watched each other over the truce-defined Demarcation Line ever since fighting stopped in 1953.
No peace treaty was ever signed. Only a ceasefire agreement.
The meeting was the first engagement between the leaders of North and South for more than a decade. It’s only the third since the Korean War.
And it is the direct result of North Korean nuclear tests and missile launches bringing international tensions in the region to flashpoint.
Moon Jae-in knows his key ally, the United States, will settle for nothing less than the North’s full nuclear disarmament.
Together, the two Koreas must find sufficient common ground to prevent the very real prospect of nuclear war.
South Korean presidential spokesman Yoon Young-chat said the two leaders held a serious and frank discussion about denuclearisation.
The two dined last night at a banquet which was also attended by Moon Jae-in’s wife and Kim’s wife, Ri Sol Ju.
HOW THE TALKS GOT UNDERWAY
After they went to the Peace Palace, the talks got under way. At the summit table, Moon was flanked by his chief of staff Im Jong-seek and National Intelligence Service Director Suh Hoon.
Kim was accompanied by Kim Yong-cool and his sister Kim Yo-jong.
In his opening remarks before starting talks with Moon, Kim reportedly said in a translation by Bloomberg: “I felt a flood of emotion as I walked the 200 metres here. I came here with the mindset that we would shoot a signal flare at the starting point for a new history of peace, prosperity and cultural relations.”
“You travelled a long way, oh, I shouldn’t say that,’’ he added as he turned left to glance at his sister, suggesting Seoul and Pyongyang aren’t far away from each other.
He then posed his first question to Moon.
“As I walked over here, I thought, why was it so difficult to get here?” Kim also told Moon.
“The separating line wasn’t even that high to cross. It was too easy to walk over that line and it took us 11 years to get here.”
Kim had a black binder in front of him, and appeared like he was ready to get down to business.
The leaders sit down to talk pic.twitter.com/1MWFYbIhPq
— Sky News (@SkyNews) April 27, 2018
The leaders also took time out to plant a tree next to the Military Demarcation Line that forms the border between the two Koreas at the truce village of Panmunjom.
Australia’s Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull, speaking to reporters in Perth on Friday, said he welcomes the meeting but warns “we have seen this before.”
“We have had false dawns before on the Korean peninsula, so that’s why it’s really important to maintain the pressure of the sanctions. It’s the economic sanctions that have brought this apparent change in attitude and that pressure has to be maintained.”
Donald Trump’s White House voiced hope that a Korean summit would “achieve progress toward a future of peace,” as the leaders of the two countries sat down to talk.
“We are hopeful that talks will achieve progress toward a future of peace and prosperity for the entire Korean Peninsula,” the White House said in a statement.
“The United States appreciates the close co-ordination with our ally, the Republic of Korea, and looks forward to continuing robust discussions in preparation for the planned meeting between President Donald J. Trump and Kim Jong Un in the coming weeks.”
The Japanese government said it expects the leaders of the two Koreas to have “serious” discussions on denuclearisation.
KIM’S MOUNTAIN COLLAPSE
The peace talks come as a study by Chinese geologists revealed the mountain above North Korea’s main nuclear test site has collapsed under the stress of the explosions.
The findings by the scientists at the University of Science and Technology of China may shed new light on North Korean President Kim Jong Un’s announcement that his country was no longer doing anymore testing.
The site has been deemed unsafe for further testing and requires monitoring for any leaking radiation.
THE GAMES CHANGE
The colourful outbursts exchanged by Kim Jong-un and Donald Trump last year sent the world into a spin.
“Rocket Man”. “This maniac”. “Bad dude”. “Fire and Fury”. These are just some of the insults and threats hurled forth by President Trump.
“Mentally deranged”. “US dotard”. “Frightened dog”. “I too have a nuclear button”. These were President Kim’s contributions to the verbal conflagration.
Between the two sat Moon. He had guided the previous South Korean government towards a policy of improved ties and open engagement with the North. These were policies he brought to the table when elected as President last year.
At the peak of the bluster between North Korea and the US, Moon offered Kim an out: North Korean participation in the Winter Olympic Games being held in the South’s city of PyeongChang.
Kim’s stance suddenly changed.
He declared ‘mission accomplished’, stating that North Korea had “achieved the goal” of establishing a working nuclear arms program.
During the February games, North Korean propaganda was filled with messages of conciliation and unity. Kim sent his sister to PyeongChang. The two Koreas marched as one during the opening ceremony.
This was followed by a high-level South Korean delegation visiting the North.
It was warmly welcomed by Kim himself. He even went so far as to declare his government wouldn’t need nuclear weapons if all exertnal threats were removed.
He was referring to the regular military exercises conducted between South Korea and the United States, practising to defend against any North Korean incursion.
He also offered to talk direct with President Trump.
WHO GETS WHAT?
It’s complicated.
Kim Jong-un must walk a tightrope of internal power struggles before he even talks to the South.
North Korea has invested much of its limited budget into acquiring nuclear power status. And its generals and elite army units may not be happy with surrendering the status this confers.
Kim cannot afford to appear weak to his own people.
A peace treaty, however, would offer the best of both worlds.
The US will no longer need to keep its forces stationed in South Korea. North Korea will no longer need to seek nuclear weapons to balance what it perceives as an existential threat.
And both North and South, it is hoped, will crave the benefits and independence of a unified Korea.
But does Kim really want this?
The eternal state of emergency is the foundation of his family’s power.
Is Kim just playing his same old game?
Will he seek to string things out?
He may attempt to stage an ongoing series of disarmament talks, each promising a new step towards nuclear disarmament in exchange for foreign aid and sanctions concessions.
But it’s exactly this kind of playing for time that enabled the North to establish its nuclear and missile technologies. More time will help perfect them.
President Trump, in particular, is not likely to have such patience.
President Moon, however, knows it is his people who will suffer the most in any conflict.
So he’s striving to ensure the process goes forward.
“We are preparing to take the leading role in a great transition in world history — a complete denuclearisation of the Korean Peninsula, the establishment of a permanent peace and the sustainable development of relations between the South and North,” he says.
STICKING POINTS
Sanctions are biting North Korea, hard.
On Kim’s behalf, he may have little choice but to negotiate an agreement.
Despite his new-found power, his country is suffering.
Fuel sanctions, in particular, is causing serious pain for his people.
Moon can’t fix this.
President Trump has made it clear only one thing would end the sanctions choking the North Korean economy: nuclear disarmament.
But winning over Moon will give Kim extra leverage when he finally gets what he really wants — a meeting with Trump.
Kim knows President Trump probably means it when he says he’s ready to use military force to disarm North Korea’s nuclear arsenal.
He knows he must produce.
“This meeting won’t take place without concrete actions that match the promises that have been made by North Korea,” White House Press Secretary Sarah Huckabee Sanders declared.
Here’s where Moon comes in.
His meeting with Kim offers a chance to pave the way.
Whatever framework they come up with will help guide the outcome of a promised meeting between Jong-un and US President Donald Trump.
This may come as early as next month.
Scepticism is rife that any agreement will be reached between Kim Jong-un and Moon Jae-in. Or Donald Trump, for that matter.
But at least there is a chance.
Perhaps the best that can be hoped for is the removal of the one thing that has perpetually kept the divided peninsula on the point of conflict for decades.
They could sign a peace treaty.
And finally end the war.
ACCEPTABLE OUTCOMES
One possible “win-win” out of the Korean summit could be if Kim Jong-un offers to freeze weapons research as a first step, according to Robert Manning, a former State Department official, and James Przystup, with the National Defense University’s Institute for National Strategic Studies.
But Seoul and Washington must make clear that any freeze needs to come with unfettered UN inspections and visible dismantling of the North’s nuclear infrastructure, they wrote.
Ralph Cossa, a Koreas expert and president of the Pacific Forum CSIS think tank, is sceptical of any real breakthrough. The talks with Seoul are merely “a vehicle for pressuring Washington to talk,” he told AP in an email. “From North Korea’s perspective, the US meeting is the real prize. Just holding the meeting enhances Kim Jong-un’s legitimacy.”
Everything comes back to Kim.
And his motivations remain a mystery.
But even a summit with no outcome would be a significant step forward, says former director of the Los Alamos National Laboratory Siegfried Hecker on the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists web page
The meeting between South Korea’s envoys and Kim Jong-un “has already told us more about Kim than we have learned over the past six years,” he says.
And, he said, “it moved us at least one step away from the nuclear brink.”
ART OF THE DEAL
Just months ago, it seemed impossible.
But now President Donald Trump and Kim Jong-un are on the brink of exchanging a handshake, sitting down together — and talking.
“We are here through a combination of happenstance, impulsiveness on the part of the president of the United States, a little bit of strategy, and a little bit of luck,” former Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for East Asian and Pacific Affairs Michael Fuchs told US media.
A face-to-face deal is a propaganda coup for Kim Jong-un.
The impression that such is a meeting of equals is one past world leaders have sought to avoid.
Trump sees it differently. This is turf he feels confident upon.
He told Meet the Press in 1999 that he’d “negotiate like crazy”, with North Korea, and “I’d make sure that we try to get the best deal possible ... Wouldn’t it be good to sit down and really negotiate something?”
It will be a high-stakes meeting.
Both men have tempers. Both are used to getting their way. Both regularly exercise flair and drama.
Hopefully, it will prove to be just the start of a process of talks and negotiations.
Not a conclusion that leads to war.
Originally published as Why the meeting between North Korea’s Kim Jong-un and South Korea’s Moon Jae-in must succeed