US midterms: Joe Biden at risk of losing control of Congress as counting continues

As counting continues in the US midterm elections, the Republican’s “ripple” could be enough to stymie President Biden’s agenda. See what it means for Aussies.

Joe Biden was staring down the barrel of losing control of Congress on Wednesday but a surprisingly strong Democratic showing had turned the US midterm elections into a nailbiter.

At 9pm AEDT on Wednesday, as counting continued, the Republicans were still favoured to claim at least the five seats they needed to win a majority in the House of Representatives.

The count at that stage put Republicans ahead with 198 seats to Democrats’ 173, reports the New York Post.

It was not the “big red wave” some Republicans had predicted, although the shift would still be enough to stymie the President’s legislative agenda for the next two years and expose him to politically damaging congressional investigations.

The parties of first-term presidents have historically struggled at the midterms, held at the halfway point of the four-year presidential term.

But Barack Obama’s senior adviser David Axelrod said this was “not like a normal midterm election” as the Democrats fought through Mr Biden’s poor approval ratings and the pain caused by skyrocketing inflation.

“This sort of defies history, if it keeps going in this direction,” he said.

Karl Rove, a top adviser to George W. Bush, said he still expected the Republicans to claim a clear advantage in the House where all 435 seats were up for grabs.

“It’s more than a ripple,” he said, although senior Republican Senator Lindsey Graham conceded it was “definitely not a Republican wave”.

Donald Trump’s former senior adviser Kellyanne Conway added: “It’s enough – we’ll take it.”

Jessica Taylor from The Cook Report, a nonpartisan election analysis outlet, said the Senate battle would come down to Pennsylvania, Georgia and Nevada “as we long expected”.

Both parties held 50 Senate seats before election day and 34 were in play. The results could take days to confirm, with Georgia to hold another election next month if neither incumbent Democrat Raphael Warnock or Republican football star Herschel Walker hit 50 per cent.

Mr Biden is expected to address the results on Thursday, having watched the count from the White House and made congratulatory phone calls to successful Democrats.

Mr Trump inserted himself into the midterms in recent weeks by hinting at a third presidential run – which he could announce next week – and backing hundreds of candidates as he held rallies across the country.

While some performed strongly, including JD Vance in the Ohio Senate race, Doug Mastriano suffered a heavy defeat in the high-profile Pennsylvania gubernatorial race and Don Bolduc fell short in the New Hampshire Senate spot the Republicans hoped to pinch.

Before the polls closed, Mr Trump had said: “If they win, I should get all the credit. If they lose, I should not be blamed at all.”

Former U.S. President Donald Trump. Picture: AFP

A series of exit polls on election day exposed widespread frustration among voters about the state of the country, with a CNN survey finding 39 per cent were dissatisfied and 34 per cent were angry about where America was at.

Three quarters of voters polled by CNN said the state of the economy was not good or poor, as inflation was nominated as the top issue among voters ahead of abortion rights.

Mr Biden’s approval rating was 45 per cent while 54 per cent disapproved of his performance, although the numbers were worse for Mr Trump, whose approval rating was at just 37 per cent.

In a separate exit poll conducted by CBS, 66 per cent of Americans said they did not want Mr Biden to seek a second term in the White House.

The midterms – the first national election since Mr Biden defeated Mr Trump in 2020 – were again marred by fierce disputes over the integrity of the poll.

In the swing state of Arizona, about one in five vote-counting machines suffered technical problems in Maricopa County. Election official Bill Gates said the issue had not stopped voters from casting their ballots, which he confirmed would be counted manually.

But Mr Trump accused his opponents of “trying to steal the election”, as the Republicans unsuccessfully lodged emergency legal action in a bid to extend voting hours in the area.

US President Joe Biden and First Lady Jill Biden. Picture: AFP

Throughout the campaign, Mr Biden had repeatedly warned that democracy was “under threat” and “under attack”, saying Mr Trump and his allies were trying to “succeed where they failed in 2020 to suppress the rights of voters and subvert the electoral system itself”.

Florida Governor Ron DeSantis was convincingly re-elected as his state’s leader, boosting his position as Mr Trump’s top rival for the Republican presidential nomination in 2024.

He said his victory had “rewritten the political map” in what had been a battleground state.

Hours earlier, Mr Trump issued a veiled threat to Mr DeSantis, saying he “could hurt himself very badly” if he ran for the White House.

“I would tell you things about him that won’t be very flattering. I know more about him than anybody – other than, perhaps, his wife,” Mr Trump claimed.

In other key state races, Kathy Hochul was returned as New York’s governor despite a strong challenge on crime from Republican Lee Zeldin, while Republican Brian Kemp – who infuriated Mr Trump by fighting his 2020 election lie – won again in Georgia.

The midterms produced a diverse range of new politicians. Generation Z will be represented in Congress for the first time by 25-year-old Maxwell Alejandro Frost, a Democrat from Florida, while Maura Healey in Massachusetts became the first openly lesbian woman to be elected as a state governor.

Some states also made a series of local law changes, including legalising recreational marijuana in Maryland, enshrining the right to bear arms in the Iowa constitution, and rejecting a push to deny abortion rights in Kentucky.

WHAT US MIDTERMS MEANS FOR AUSTRALIA

Australia’s alliance with the United States is expected to remain strong regardless of which party controls the Congress once the midterm election results are confirmed.

Experts say Democrats and Republicans are on the same page about the strategic threat posed by China, and will work together to support Australia including through the AUKUS defence pact.

Arthur Sinodinos, Australia’s US Ambassador. Picture: Supplied

Australia’s US Ambassador Arthur Sinodinos said that “either way, we’re in good hands”.

“The relationship … has always been strong but recent geostrategic circumstances are bringing us even closer together,” he said.

“There is very strong affection for Australia (in the US) – there’s admiration for the way we have stood up to issues around trade and economic coercion, and the fact that on defence we’re spending more.

“The AUKUS thing went down a treat in the Congress; the enthusiasm we found for AUKUS was just incredible.”

Dr Charles Edel, the Australia chair at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, said a Republican-controlled Congress would push for increased defence spending and extra support for Taiwan.

He said there was bipartisan recognition that America’s defence export controls system – which could be a key roadblock to sharing technology under AUKUS – was “a problem and that it needs reformation”.

Overall, Dr Edel said the midterm results would not have a “huge effect” on the American relationship with Australia because the United States remained “very bullish” about its Indo-Pacific alliances.

Former US ambassador Joe Hockey agreed, saying both parties were “vehemently opposed to China”, and would support Australia both on defence and diversifying supply chains.

BIG TRUMP ANNOUNCEMENT NOVEMBER 15

Mr Trump is set to launch his third White House run next week, in a bid to capitalise on what is expected to be a Republican Party victory in the midterms.

The Republicans are in the box seat to retake control of Congress, although President Joe Biden said on the eve of the election the Democrats would “surprise the living devil out of a lot of people”.

Rumours had swirled that Mr Trump would use a final rally in Ohio to officially announce his candidacy for 2024, spooking some Republicans who feared that would motivate more Democrats to vote in the midterms.

The former president stopped short of that but confirmed he would be “making a very big announcement on Tuesday November 15”.

“We want nothing to detract from the importance of tomorrow,” Mr Trump said.

“If you want to stop destruction, save our country, and save the American dream, then this Tuesday you must vote Republican in a giant red wave.”

While the parties of first-term presidents have historically lost control of Congress at the midterms, Mr Biden said he was “optimistic” the Democrats could at least hold the Senate.

“I know that sounds like a very high expectation,” Mr Biden said at a rally in Maryland.

US President Joe Biden. Picture: AFP

“We know in our bones that our democracy is at risk, and we know that this is your moment to defend it, preserve and protect it, choose it. We’ll meet this moment.”

Independent election analysis outlet The Cook Political Report said control of the House of Representatives – where all 435 seats are up for grabs – was “easily within reach” for the Republicans.

It projected that the Senate – where 34 out of 100 seats are in play – could also fall the way of the Republicans from the current 50-50 deadlock.

With voters disillusioned about the state of the economy, Mr Biden acknowledged Democrats were “in this election when history suggests we shouldn’t be”.

“We should be being blown away,” he said.

“If we’re able to hold on, we’re going to be in incredible shape.”

Former Australian ambassador to the US Joe Hockey said Republican control of the House or the Senate would make “US politics appear more chaotic”, blocking Mr Biden’s legislative agenda and targeting him with inquiries “to score political points”.

“But importantly for Australia, on the issues that matter most in our region – on defence and China – the Republicans and the Democrats are aligned,” the Bondi Partners president said.

“Both parties are vehemently opposed to China and are trying to push Chinese companies out of US supply chains in favour of trusted partners, including Australia, which will continue to create opportunities for our businesses.”

Joe Hockey, former Australian ambassador to the US, weighs in on what midterm elections could mean for Australia. Picture: Allison Shelley

Charles Edel, the Australia chair at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, predicted a Republican-led Congress would also push for stronger support for Taiwan but could pressure Mr Biden to wind back aid for Ukraine.

Dr Edel said America’s “very messy, very loud” political system – including questions about election integrity – presented “a challenge for how America presents itself as a champion of democracy”.

But he said that should not “preclude US efforts on the international stage particularly in dealing with the advance of authoritarian actors”.

At least 43 million Americans voted prior to election day, with those early ballots likely to slow down counting and potentially delay some results for days. The process has also been hampered by more than 100 lawsuits filed across the country over electoral rules.

The midterms are also once again under a cloud of Russian interference, with a close ally of President Vladimir Putin declaring: “We interfered, we are interfering and we will interfere.”

US MIDTERM ELECTIONS: YOUR QUESTIONS ANSWERED

What are the US midterm elections?

Halfway through every four-year presidential term, Americans head back to the polls for the midterm elections.

All 435 seats in the House of Representatives are up for grabs, along with a third of the 100 Senate seats.

There are also a series of state races. This year, 36 out of 50 states will elect governors, who are the equivalent of state premiers.

How do they work?

Unlike in Australia, voting in the United States is not compulsory, so it is crucial for candidates to encourage their supporters to cast a ballot.

More than 43 million Americans had already voted prior to election day on November 8.

While many winners will be projected in the hours after voting closes, it may take days to determine the results in tight races, and even longer for those results to be officially certified.

America does not have its own version of the Australian Electoral Commission, with different rules in place across the country. For instance, Georgia voters will be asked to vote again in a run-off election if neither Senate candidate receives at least 50 per cent of all ballots cast.

Why are they important?

The midterms determine which party controls Congress, the nation’s legislature.

Prior to November 8, both the Democrats and the Republicans had 50 senators, with Vice President Kamala Harris holding the tie-breaking vote.

The Democrats had a narrow 220-212 advantage in the House of Representatives.

For President Joe Biden, losing control of either house would prevent him from passing legislation without Republican support, while it would also expose him to Republican-led investigations through powerful congressional committees.

What do they mean for the next US presidential election?

A first-term president’s party typically performs poorly at the midterms, although this does not mean they are doomed when seeking re-election in another two years.

This time around, the results will be significant in determining whether Mr Biden runs again in 2024, amid questions about his poor approval ratings and his age.

On the Republican side, the 2024 race has already unofficially begun, with former president Donald Trump plotting to announce his own candidacy soon if the midterms fall in his party’s favour.